The Kyler Murray bad decision thread

[GatorAZ]

i'm currently watching all the positive press burrow is getting right now across all the different sports talk shows, and it has me wondering.

who would you rather have for the next ~10 years, Burrow or Murray?

If both were coming out, Burrow... Since he’s already here, Murray.

 

[scandalous_b]

1. This was the play you might remember was under thrown and nearly intercepted early on and Kirk had to bat it down.

Kyler decides to throw to Kirk in tight coverage with Drake in motion underneath for an easy 1st down. Boston is caught going the wrong way and in the next few frames Boston gets nowhere near him.

Arnold is also wide open, 50/50 whether he gets the 1st there as there is a linebacker sat on the 1st down line.

Also notice how deep he is. He's a full 11 yards behind the LOS. I went and checked others and the most I could find was 9.

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Yeah this play is completely misleading from this angle. Drake isn't nearly as open as you are claiming.

Here is the angle from behind Kyler the moment he begins to his throwing motion towards Kirk:

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1. Drake is covered up pretty decently by a spying Jeremy Chinn underneath and Tre Boston over the top. That throw isn't exactly a gimme, especially considering Gross-Matos was about to destroy him.

2. Tre Boston is in pretty good position to stop Drake from getting the first down, regardless of which direction his momentum is in.

3. The throw to Kirk wasn't nearly as risky as every one trying to claim. It's 3rd & long from their own 35 or whatever. Throwing a ball up to a receiver in single coverage 30-40 yards downfield isn't the worst option given the alternatives. Even if it was intercepted - they were going to have to punt the football anyways. I don't get the outrage.

 

[BritCard]

Yeah this play is completely misleading from this angle. Drake isn't nearly as open as you are claiming.

Here is the angle from behind Kyler the moment he begins to his throwing motion towards Kirk:

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1. Drake is covered up pretty decently by a spying Jeremy Chinn underneath and Tre Boston over the top. That throw isn't exactly a gimme, especially considering Gross-Matos was about to destroy him.

2. Tre Boston is in pretty good position to stop Drake from getting the first down, regardless of which direction his momentum is in.

3. The throw to Kirk wasn't nearly as risky as every one trying to claim. It's 3rd & long from their own 35 or whatever. Throwing a ball up to a receiver in single coverage 30-40 yards downfield isn't the worst option given the alternatives. Even if it was intercepted - they were going to have to punt the football anyways. I don't get the outrage.

Dude you take that back half a second and there's a huge throwing lane to Drake with Boston flat footed and 8 yards away. Drake could take that either side of him for a 1st down. If he can't beat a single DB in space for 7 yards he's in the wrong job.

Kyler knows the play. He can see the defense. He should know even before the ball is snapped that Arnold is going to drag Boston over and free up a lane for Drake. This is really basic stuff. Instead he throws a bad pass that Kirk has to bat down to stop an INT.

People need to stop making excuses. It was bad.

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[BritCard]

i'm currently watching all the positive press burrow is getting right now across all the different sports talk shows, and it has me wondering.

who would you rather have for the next ~10 years, Burrow or Murray?

Herbert, if they were both in the draft at the same time.

Don't get me wrong. Murray is here. I like him. He's obviously talented. But I'll take the big athletic guy with a great arm over a small athletic guy with a great arm in any ball sport.

 

[scandalous_b]

Dude you take that back half a second and there's a huge throwing lane to Drake with Boston flat footed and 8 yards away. Drake could take that either side of him for a 1st down. If he can't beat a single DB in space for 7 yards he's in the wrong job.

Kyler knows the play. He can see the defense. He should know even before the ball is snapped that Arnold is going to drag Boston over and free up a lane for Drake. This is really basic stuff. Instead he throws a bad pass that Kirk has to bat down to stop an INT.

People need to stop making excuses. It was bad.

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I have no idea what you are talking about.

The Panthers are sitting in zone coverage. Dan Arnold's route barely affected Boston, because he passed him off to the other LB covering the other half of the field. Boston never crosses over the hashmarks. That isn't the correct read at all.

They also have one deep safety over the top of the right half of the field - so the only defender in coverage deep on the left side is the safety #31 Juston Burris - who started in the box.

It is 100% the correct read to throw that football to Christian Kirk. He has a step on a safety running with his back turned with no help over the top.

"This is really basic stuff" - good call lol

 

[BritCard]

I have no idea what you are talking about.

The Panthers are sitting in zone coverage. Dan Arnold's route barely affected Boston, because he passed him off to the other LB covering the other half of the field. Boston never crosses over the hashmarks. That isn't the correct read at all.

They also have one deep safety over the top of the right half of the field - so the only defender in coverage deep on the left side is the safety #31 Juston Burris - who started in the box.

It is 100% the correct read to throw that football to Christian Kirk. He has a step on a safety running with his back turned with no help over the top.

"This is really basic stuff" - good call lol

Boston doesn't need to cross the open field and yes Arnold does drag him across. Why do you think he is running in that direction?

I've marked on the red line where Boston stops and has to change direction. If the pass is thrown as in the image then Drake is gone before Boston can even turn. The deep safety is a million miles away. As is the corner tracking Kirk.

If Kyler throws the underneath to Drake he gets the 1st down and more easily.

Forgetting all that where Murray throws the ball to Kirk on the inside is right where the CB has the advantage. The ball placement should have been deeper and closer to the hashes for Kirk to have the advantage.

The easier deep ball is to Fitz thrown towards the sideline where he has the outside leverage over the DB and Nuk has drawn down the outside CB.

Murray throws that with a little touch and Fitz grabs that all day.

Of all the options available Kirk was the worst one, especially considering where the ball was placed.

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[scandalous_b]

Boston doesn't need to cross the open field and yes Arnold does drag him across. Why do you think he is running in that direction?

I've marked on the red line where Boston stops and has to change direction. If the pass is thrown as in the image then Drake is gone before Boston can even turn. The deep safety is a million miles away. As is the corner tracking Kirk.

If Kyler throws the underneath to Drake he gets the 1st down and more easily.

Forgetting all that where Murray throws the ball to Kirk on the inside is right where the CB has the advantage. The ball placement should have been deeper and closer to the hashes for Kirk to have the advantage.

The easier deep ball is to Fitz thrown towards the sideline where he has the outside leverage over the DB and Nuk has drawn down the outside CB.

Murray throws that with a little touch and Fitz grabs that all day.

Of all the options available Kirk was the worst one, especially considering where the ball was placed.

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Clearly we're just not going to see eye to eye on this.

There is absolutely no world where the football should ever be throw to Fitz against this coverage. The whole point of this route concept is to split the deep safety and force him to make a choice. The moment he commits to playing over the top of Fitz, that option is eliminated. I mean wow.

And the ball placement in this case in completely irrelevant since Kyler got drilled as he was throwing. It's not like he was trying to underthrow Kirk by 10 yards.

I have no idea why you're so terrified to throw the ball vertically to a WR against a trailing safety with no over the top help. That's literally like the ideal scenario.

 

[BritCard]

Clearly we're just not going to see eye to eye on this.

There is absolutely no world where the football should ever be throw to Fitz against this coverage. The whole point of this route concept is to split the deep safety and force him to make a choice. The moment he commits to playing over the top of Fitz, that option is eliminated. I mean wow.

And the ball placement in this case in completely irrelevant since Kyler got drilled as he was throwing. It's not like he was trying to underthrow Kirk by 10 yards.

I have no idea why you're so terrified to throw the ball vertically to a WR against a trailing safety with no over the top help. That's literally like the ideal scenario.

If he threw it to Drake he wouldn't have got drilled would he?

Also, for those counting thats Humps man drilling Kyler.

 

[Russ Smith]

I'm surprised there aren't more comments on this one. Just look at it. It makes me want to puke.

We're down 14 zip here. Kyler is about to end the drive by running out and he has 3 open receivers. Nuk can house a simple pass and it completely changes the game.

Look how worried they are about him running, he's sucked down 3 defenders and we have guys wide open. He needs to do this more. Fake run, reset, and throw. He would have guys wide open all the time.

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That's actually the one that bothers me least because at this point he does NOT set himself on those plays so if he throws to any of those 3 it's going to be on the run across his body, late, which you're taught to never do. If he actually reset, yeah he should be able to get that ball in there easily. Like Harry and I were discussing after the Detroit game, that's one thing Kyler clearly has to learn to do, scramble, stop, reset and then throw, he doesn't do it yet so either he runs, or he throws on the run when he doesn't have to.

They have to get him start resetting because it will open up so many plays

 

[BritCard]

That's actually the one that bothers me least because at this point he does NOT set himself on those plays so if he throws to any of those 3 it's going to be on the run across his body, late, which you're taught to never do. If he actually reset, yeah he should be able to get that ball in there easily. Like Harry and I were discussing after the Detroit game, that's one thing Kyler clearly has to learn to do, scramble, stop, reset and then throw, he doesn't do it yet so either he runs, or he throws on the run when he doesn't have to.

They have to get him start resetting because it will open up so many plays

Well yeah thats my point. He has a tonne of time to stop, reset and throw. This isn't something a #1 overall pick QB should have to be taught or a QB in his 20th NFL start. I'm sure he knows all this already. It was just a really bad decision.

 

[Russ Smith]

Well yeah thats my point. He has a tonne of time to stop, reset and throw. This isn't something a #1 overall pick QB should have to be taught or a QB in his 20th NFL start. I'm sure he knows all this already. It was just a really bad decision.

I hear you I'm just saying based on what we've seen so far he almost never sets himself when running right so if he did make that throw it would have been on the run across his body. He couldn't lead Hopkins because there's a DB on the sideline that he had to worry about so he would have thrown it across his body and that's a no no.

If he stops and sets then he can wing it down there and make a big play.

 

[BritCard]

I hear you I'm just saying based on what we've seen so far he almost never sets himself when running right so if he did make that throw it would have been on the run across his body. He couldn't lead Hopkins because there's a DB on the sideline that he had to worry about so he would have thrown it across his body and that's a no no.

If he stops and sets then he can wing it down there and make a big play.

I get you Russ. Just not sure how hard it is for him to see Nuk, reset and throw. That should be instinctual to any starting NFL QB.

And yes, I agree with you that he shouldn't throw that across his body as a rule, but in practice we see many of the top QB's in the league do that. Especially on something like this where it's a wide open guy and it's not that far across him.

Here's Lamar in his rookie year doing it in much tighter coverage.

https://www.nfl.com/videos/lamar-jackson-throws-across-his-body-to-crabtree-287113

Or Lamar last year throwing across himself into coverage

https://www.nfl.com/videos/can-t-miss-play-lamar-jackson-channels-mahomes-on-insane-cross-body-throw

Or Cam Newton here

https://www.nfl.com/videos/cam-avoids-defenders-throws-across-his-body-to-funchess-258757

And thats without listing the 25 times Mahomes has done it. Any mobile QB whether it be Rodgers, Josh Allen etc has that throw in their locker.

I agree with you, I don't want to see it all the time in double coverage but down 14 on the road on 3rd down with a top 3 receiver in the league in 15 yards of space? That's not a throw a QB of Kyler's quality should be turning down.

 

[DVontel]

Herbert, if they were both in the draft at the same time.

Don't get me wrong. Murray is here. I like him. He's obviously talented. But I'll take the big athletic guy with a great arm over a small athletic guy with a great arm in any ball sport.

Did he include Herbert though?

 

[DVontel]

i'm currently watching all the positive press burrow is getting right now across all the different sports talk shows, and it has me wondering.

who would you rather have for the next ~10 years, Burrow or Murray?

Murray.

 

[Russ Smith]

I would take Murray over Burrow for sure, can't put my finger on it but I'm not that high on Burrow although admittedly he's had a very nice start.

As I said yesterday Herbert has been far better than I expected i saw him several times in college and was never convinced that he was as good as he should be. It appears he's improved. I also suspect part of my dislike on him is the natural tendency to compare people to others that played at the same school so Mariota failed to live up to the hype so there's a natural instinct to assume Herbert will too.

He's got size, an arm and he played quite a bit more in college than Murray did so he's much further along polish wise it appears, than Murray was as a rookie.

Again for people wondering why Murray is what he is, watch the Alabama game, I don't know how else to explain it. If you went to HS you probably at some point knew someone who was a great athlete but didn't really play a game competitively. My junior year a guy went out for baseball he'd been a 4 year football star, was a great athlete, but hadn't played baseball since 7th grade. First AB senior year for him he hits a HR. Everyone was just like man Mark is unreal, awesome athlete. He wound up hitting under 200 got benched and never hit another HR, once people figured out he could only hit the fastball he was done.

Murray is a great athlete who was never a full time football player until he got to the NFL. He's improved at stepping up in the pocket but seems now to be gunshy going downfield. They have to coach him through that, not having a normal offseason probably didn't help but it's too late now, he has to start making those plays downfield to stretch the defense. He just to me looks like a guy who's still learning his craft. I still think the talent is obvious, but he has to learn how to read the defense and take what's there downfield. As I said pre draft at OU he was deciding which wide open guy to throw to. Alabama was really the one time in college that wasn't the case. Hollywood Brown was playing hurt and was a non factor so it was Lamb and Rambo and basically Kyler had to start running to get things going. That was the only adversity he faced at OU, other than of course being behind Mayfield one year.

 

[legend]

Wow! Great work BritCard. This should put to bed most of the concerns about coach Bro scheming our receiver routes. Our young quarterback has some work to do.

 

[Chopper0080]

Yeah this play is completely misleading from this angle. Drake isn't nearly as open as you are claiming.

Here is the angle from behind Kyler the moment he begins to his throwing motion towards Kirk:

You must be registered for see images attach

1. Drake is covered up pretty decently by a spying Jeremy Chinn underneath and Tre Boston over the top. That throw isn't exactly a gimme, especially considering Gross-Matos was about to destroy him.

2. Tre Boston is in pretty good position to stop Drake from getting the first down, regardless of which direction his momentum is in.

3. The throw to Kirk wasn't nearly as risky as every one trying to claim. It's 3rd & long from their own 35 or whatever. Throwing a ball up to a receiver in single coverage 30-40 yards downfield isn't the worst option given the alternatives. Even if it was intercepted - they were going to have to punt the football anyways. I don't get the outrage.

The answer here is that Murray got in trouble by drifting back in the pocket. Clear lane between the C and the RG if he would have climbed the pocket instead of drifting back.

 

[BritCard]

The answer here is that Murray got in trouble by drifting back in the pocket. Clear lane between the C and the RG if he would have climbed the pocket instead of drifting back.

Good point. Not only can he step up into the pocket to throw he could also likely have got the 1st running with a bit of luck.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I would take Murray over Burrow for sure, can't put my finger on it but I'm not that high on Burrow although admittedly he's had a very nice start.

As I said yesterday Herbert has been far better than I expected i saw him several times in college and was never convinced that he was as good as he should be. It appears he's improved. I also suspect part of my dislike on him is the natural tendency to compare people to others that played at the same school so Mariota failed to live up to the hype so there's a natural instinct to assume Herbert will too.

He's got size, an arm and he played quite a bit more in college than Murray did so he's much further along polish wise it appears, than Murray was as a rookie.

Again for people wondering why Murray is what he is, watch the Alabama game, I don't know how else to explain it. If you went to HS you probably at some point knew someone who was a great athlete but didn't really play a game competitively. My junior year a guy went out for baseball he'd been a 4 year football star, was a great athlete, but hadn't played baseball since 7th grade. First AB senior year for him he hits a HR. Everyone was just like man Mark is unreal, awesome athlete. He wound up hitting under 200 got benched and never hit another HR, once people figured out he could only hit the fastball he was done.

Murray is a great athlete who was never a full time football player until he got to the NFL. He's improved at stepping up in the pocket but seems now to be gunshy going downfield. They have to coach him through that, not having a normal offseason probably didn't help but it's too late now, he has to start making those plays downfield to stretch the defense. He just to me looks like a guy who's still learning his craft. I still think the talent is obvious, but he has to learn how to read the defense and take what's there downfield. As I said pre draft at OU he was deciding which wide open guy to throw to. Alabama was really the one time in college that wasn't the case. Hollywood Brown was playing hurt and was a non factor so it was Lamb and Rambo and basically Kyler had to start running to get things going. That was the only adversity he faced at OU, other than of course being behind Mayfield one year.

I'd also argue there isn't a ton of tape yet on Herbert. We must've seen a dozen QBs over the years start strong, but then defenses figure out how to fool them.

 

[Russ Smith]

I'd also argue there isn't a ton of tape yet on Herbert. We must've seen a dozen QBs over the years start strong, but then defenses figure out how to fool them.

I pointed it out yesterday but maybe Kyler's best game last year was Tampa Bay. He had a huge INT late but it was because the Wr fell down, had 2 big bombs to Kirk and some other great plays. TB just had a sieve on pass defense lst year, have not seen them this year. So seeing all the bombs to open guys from Herbert makes me wonder is TB just as bad on pass D this year.

Kyler has a chance to put up bigger numbers the next 3 weeks the defenses we're playing are allowing tons of points and yards.

The Jets might actually have the best defense of the 3.

 

[BritCard]

I'd also argue there isn't a ton of tape yet on Herbert. We must've seen a dozen QBs over the years start strong, but then defenses figure out how to fool them.

True, but sometimes you watch a guy and you just know he has the juice. I didn't watch much Herbert in college so I have no pre existing opinion, but seeing him recently against some good defenses he just looks like he has "it".

Only time will tell.

 

[DVontel]

True, but sometimes you watch a guy and you just know he has the juice. I didn't watch much Herbert in college so I have no pre existing opinion, but seeing him recently against some good defenses he just looks like he has "it".

Only time will tell.

lmao


You make it so obvious.

 

[cardpa]

Great analysis - thanks for putting in the work!

What mystifies me is that we've seen Murray make PLENTY of plays like the ones he missed in this game. For example, in his first ever game against the Lions, he made two GREAT long throws to Fitz during the Cards' 4th quarter comeback; the pass that Isabela took to the house vs. the 49ers; and lots more that earned him plenty of praise and superlatives last season and even a few this season.

I wonder whether he needs glasses or something. Something was broken last weekend for sure, but hopefully it's fixable easily enough.

...dbs

If what is broken is between Murray's ears, it may be difficult to fix.

 

[Krangodnzr]

True, but sometimes you watch a guy and you just know he has the juice. I didn't watch much Herbert in college so I have no pre existing opinion, but seeing him recently against some good defenses he just looks like he has "it".

Only time will tell.

Herbert was the classic QB who padded his stats with high percentage throws that literally every Tom, Dick, and Harry could make, but would have like 2-3 highlight reel throws per game, sandwiched between 7-8 cringe worthy throws or plays. You have to remember that Oregon is a recruiting factory. They get lots of top level talent, so Herbert's supporting cast is made up of lots of really good players. His Left Tackle is Sewell, is maybe the best LT prospect in a long while.

There is also the PAC 10 (or now PAC 12) curse of top QBs that end up sucking in the NFL.

 

[Krangodnzr]

If what is broken is between Murray's ears, it may be difficult to fix.

Judging from the circumstances, I think what happened to him in the Lions game had an effect on his confidence.

His issues are very correctable, and he should overcome them with more experience.