The Market 2022-2023-2024

[Folster]

That 210 range should stabilize things and see some buyers there.. IMO.

I remember just a few weeks ago, a number of supposed CNBC analysts were calling FB undervalued and a good buy.

 

[dscher]

I remember just a few weeks ago, a number of supposed CNBC analysts were calling FB undervalued and a good buy.

Yep. Strange how that works. They don't talk about all the misses they have when analysts/banks have strong buys or buys and the stocks proceed to get crushed shortly after...great contrarian strategy would be to dollar cost average in on all the strong sells they put out. Lol.

 

[Devilmaycare]

I'll buy another 4 shares if around $205. I love the market sentiment. One earnings call and everybody thinks it's trash. A lot of the CNBC talking heads are bearish.

I'm more bearish than bullish on them. I'm just not sure what the correct valuation is. Long term I think FB has a lot of issues in front of them. The restrictions on Apple platforms is going to hit them hard, we've only seen the tip of the iceberg.

I also really don't think they should be valued with the MAGA stocks due to them not being their own platform. They're at the whims of Apple and Google for most of what they do and due to the nature of their business, especially their revenues, I could see more disruptions coming like they did with the Apple tracking changes.

The pivot to Metaverse isn't going to be clean either. Apple has VR/AR headset coming, Google is supposed to be doing a successor to Google Glass, MS has their headset too. The competition is heating up and there isn't anything saying you have to get a Quest over the others. Myself and a bunch of other people (I know it's antidotal) are done with Occulus now that they're requiring it to be tied to a FB account, something they promised they wouldn't do. I'm just not seeing a bright enough future with it for the way they pivoted the company.

 

[BigRedRage]

I'm more bearish than bullish on them. I'm just not sure what the correct valuation is. Long term I think FB has a lot of issues in front of them. The restrictions on Apple platforms is going to hit them hard, we've only seen the tip of the iceberg.

I also really don't think they should be valued with the MAGA stocks due to them not being their own platform. They're at the whims of Apple and Google for most of what they do and due to the nature of their business, especially their revenues, I could see more disruptions coming like they did with the Apple tracking changes.

The pivot to Metaverse isn't going to be clean either. Apple has VR/AR headset coming, Google is supposed to be doing a successor to Google Glass, MS has their headset too. The competition is heating up and there isn't anything saying you have to get a Quest over the others. Myself and a bunch of other people (I know it's antidotal) are done with Occulus now that they're requiring it to be tied to a FB account, something they promised they wouldn't do. I'm just not seeing a bright enough future with it for the way they pivoted the company.

Meta Quest no longer has to be tied to a FB account I read with the MEta change.

Meta removing Facebook login requirement for Quest headsets by next year

But the devil's in the still-unknown details.

arstechnica.com

 

[BigRedRage]

Biden said the word Tesla today for the first time in his presidency. The entire UAW cringed.

 

[Devilmaycare]

Meta Quest no longer has to be tied to a FB account I read with the MEta change.

Meta removing Facebook login requirement for Quest headsets by next year

But the devil's in the still-unknown details.

arstechnica.com

The devil is in the details on that one and we know FB is the devil. Basically all they've said is that a "FB" account won't be needed but haven't given details yet. What I expect will happen is that they'll come out with a new meta verse account that will tie everything together and what's currently a FB account will be a subset of it. So while you'll technically no longer have to have a FB account the end result is the same.

If Apple or Google's offering is at least in the ballpark then I'll go with them to stay away from FB and Zuck. The Apple headset is rumored to have a 4k display for each eye. That'll help a bit with a couple of the issues I have when using my Quest.

 

[BigRedRage]

The devil is in the details on that one and we know FB is the devil. Basically all they've said is that a "FB" account won't be needed but haven't given details yet. What I expect will happen is that they'll come out with a new meta verse account that will tie everything together and what's currently a FB account will be a subset of it. So while you'll technically no longer have to have a FB account the end result is the same.

If Apple or Google's offering is at least in the ballpark then I'll go with them to stay away from FB and Zuck. The Apple headset is rumored to have a 4k display for each eye. That'll help a bit with a couple of the issues I have when using my Quest.

I haven't used my quest in months. It's so fun but....time

 

[Folster]

For the indexers looking for a safer place during US market volatility, IVLU, iShares International Value ETF. Up 4.91% YTD.

Compare the 5 year charts between International Value and US Value. Lots of meat on the bone with international value in my opinion.

You must be registered for see images attach

You must be registered for see images attach

 

[dscher]

I think acquisitions will be tough for FB due to anti-trust concerns.

Speak of the devil....lol

Facebook market cap falls below $600 billion — which could actually help it dodge new antitrust scrutiny

The milestone points to one of the challenges of crafting laws that target the tech industry.

www.cnbc.com

 

[elindholm]

Broad gains today. Are investors expecting tomorrow's inflation report to be less scary, or is there a lot of short-term manipulation going on?

 

[Folster]

Broad gains today. Are investors expecting tomorrow's inflation report to be less scary, or is there a lot of short-term manipulation going on?

Seems analysts are expecting a 6 handle on CPI. Anything above or below will be a sell-off or blast off respectively.

 

[elindholm]

Seems analysts are expecting a 6 handle on CPI. Anything above or below will be a sell-off or blast off respectively.

Well I guess I missed my chance to dump everything at today's close...

 

[Folster]

Well I guess I missed my chance to dump everything at today's close...

You gotta get better at reading the charts. haha.

 

[dscher]

You gotta get better at reading the charts. haha.

Exactly. Get Carter Braxton Worth in here already!

 

[elindholm]

You gotta get better at reading the charts. haha.

Well no matter what happens tomorrow, I'm sure there are charts that predicted it.

 

[dscher]

Well no matter what happens tomorrow, I'm sure there are charts that predicted it.

Bingo!

 

[Folster]

Looks like I missed my opportunity to get back into DIS. They had record revenue and earnings beat. It's up after hours. I was hoping it would get below 120, but 129 was the lowest it went in its recent pull back.

 

[Brian in Mesa]

Inflation Rises 7.5% Over the Past Year, Even More Than Expected and the Highest Since 1982​

Inflation Rises 7.5% Over the Past Year, Even More Than Expected and the Highest Since 1982

The consumer price index was expected to increase 7.2% from a year ago, according to a Dow Jones economist survey.

www.nbcsandiego.com

Consumer prices surged more than expected over the past 12 months, indicating a worsening outlook for inflation and cementing the likelihood of substantial interest rate hikes this year.

The consumer price index for January, which measures the costs of dozens of everyday consumer goods, rose 7.5% compared to a year ago, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

That compared to Dow Jones estimates of 7.2% for the closely watched inflation gauge. It was the highest reading since February 1982.

Stripping out volatile gas and grocery costs, the CPI increased 6%, compared to the estimate of 5.9%. Core inflation rose at its fastest level since August 1982.

The monthly CPI rates also came in hotter than expected, with headline and core CPI both rising 0.6%, compared to the estimates for a 0.4% increase on both measures.

Stock market futures declined following the report, with rate-sensitive tech stocks hit especially hard. Government bond yields rose sharply, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury note touching 2%, its highest since August 2019.

Markets also got more aggressive in pricing rate hikes ahead.

 

[Folster]

Inflation Rises 7.5% Over the Past Year, Even More Than Expected and the Highest Since 1982​

Inflation Rises 7.5% Over the Past Year, Even More Than Expected and the Highest Since 1982

The consumer price index was expected to increase 7.2% from a year ago, according to a Dow Jones economist survey.

www.nbcsandiego.com

Consumer prices surged more than expected over the past 12 months, indicating a worsening outlook for inflation and cementing the likelihood of substantial interest rate hikes this year.

The consumer price index for January, which measures the costs of dozens of everyday consumer goods, rose 7.5% compared to a year ago, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

That compared to Dow Jones estimates of 7.2% for the closely watched inflation gauge. It was the highest reading since February 1982.

Stripping out volatile gas and grocery costs, the CPI increased 6%, compared to the estimate of 5.9%. Core inflation rose at its fastest level since August 1982.

The monthly CPI rates also came in hotter than expected, with headline and core CPI both rising 0.6%, compared to the estimates for a 0.4% increase on both measures.

Stock market futures declined following the report, with rate-sensitive tech stocks hit especially hard. Government bond yields rose sharply, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury note touching 2%, its highest since August 2019.

Markets also got more aggressive in pricing rate hikes ahead.

The Fed is still nerfing the inflation figure by using owner equivalent rents. Anybody that is renting or knows somebody who is renting knows rental increases have been much higher.

Regardless, the number still came in hotter than expected. The market seems to be mulling it over. Odds of a half of a percent rate increase has increased.

I did hear on CNBC that 5 rate increases were priced in currently according to one analyst. Not sure on the time frame on that though. Take that for what it's worth.

 

[elindholm]

Looks like I missed my opportunity to get back into DIS. They had record revenue and earnings beat. It's up after hours. I was hoping it would get below 120, but 129 was the lowest it went in its recent pull back.

I left my wagon hitched to VIAC, for better or worse.

I'm puzzled by the high inflation number combined with the relatively tepid market response. Quick, someone get me a chart!

 

[Folster]

I left my wagon hitched to VIAC, for better or worse.

I'm puzzled by the high inflation number combined with the relatively tepid market response. Quick, someone get me a chart!

Yeah, I think there was strong bullish momentum and this seems to have muted it, but not enough to get a sell-off. A little bit of a wait and see. I wouldn't be surprised if the market just pings around until the next fed release.

 

[dscher]

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

 

[dscher]

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

This has to go well....

 

[elindholm]

Ah, now comes the dip. Makes sense, at least.

 

[Devilmaycare]

The Fed is still nerfing the inflation figure by using owner equivalent rents. Anybody that is renting or knows somebody who is renting knows rental increases have been much higher.

Regardless, the number still came in hotter than expected. The market seems to be mulling it over. Odds of a half of a percent rate increase has increased.

I did hear on CNBC that 5 rate increases were priced in currently according to one analyst. Not sure on the time frame on that though. Take that for what it's worth.

I was going to say the same thing about owner equivalent. I haven't found if it's accurate or not but I heard that if it was calculated the old way we'd be at about 14% for last year. That's nuts. I hate it when government agencies play with the parameters to make the outcome number look one way or another. It's like claiming unemployment went down when the number of jobs stayed the same but the participation rate dropped.