The Race for 2nd

[TheKid_1]

I was taking a look at all the schedules for the last few weeks of the season. I think the suns have a legit shot at moving past Utah and even into the 3 or maybe even 2 seed. Here is how the schedules break down:

Den: Dal: Utah: Pho:
Bos Por Tor NY
Tor Gsw Ind Min
Orl DEN Was Chi
Dal Mem NYC Nj
POR ORL GSW Det
LAC OKC Lal Mil
Okc MEM OKC SAN
LAL Por Hou Okc
SAN Sac No HOU
MEM Lac Gsw DEN
Pho SAN PHO Uta

(home/away games) (games against top 8 in the West or top 5 in East left)
Denver: 1/1 and 1
Dallas: 1/1 and 1
Utah: 1/1 and 1
Phoenix: 1/1 and 2

We only have to make up two games each against Denver and Dallas, and 1 against Utah. This is quite a favorable break down for the suns...COME ON SUNS, FINISH STRONG!

 

[Chaplin]

I believe that we can't move into the 2nd seed because the Lakers are #1 and lead our division.

 

[TheKid_1]

I believe that we can't move into the 2nd seed because the Lakers are #1 and lead our division.

Didn't they change this rule Chap? Doesn't the new rule say that the winner of each division is guaranteed a top 4 seed now, not top 3?

 

[Dr. Dumas]

My guess is:

Dallas- 7-4
Denver- 5-6
Utah- 8-3
Phx- 8-3

I think it's going to come down to that last game in Utah to see who will have the better seed between Utah and Phoenix.

Denver is going to drop fast...starting tonight at Boston.

 

[Chaplin]

Didn't they change this rule Chap? Doesn't the new rule say that the winner of each division is guaranteed a top 4 seed now, not top 3?

Not sure.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

They did. We can be anywhere between #2 and #4. Division winners are no longer guaranteed 1-3. They are guaranteed to be at least #4 so they host a playoff game. Seeding will go by W-L records first, then division winners.

Only one team can sneak into a higher seed if you will.

 

[dodie53]

F the lakers

 

[Errntknght]

I augmented the list a little, marking the away games for Pho & Utah...

Den: Dal: Utah: Pho:
Bos Por Tor NY
Tor Gsw @Ind @Min
Orl DEN @Was @Chi
Dal Mem NYC @Nj
POR ORL GSW @Det
LAC OKC @LAL @Mil
Okc MEM OKC SAN
LAL Por @Hou @Okc
SAN Sac @No HOU
MEM Lac @Gsw DEN
Pho SAN PHO @Uta

The last game is almost decisive in itself. If Utah wins they have the 1st tie breaker so if they went into the game, 1 game or less behind us they get the fourth spot. If we win we have the second tie breaker so if we are 1 game or less behind them before, we get 4th spot.

I'd estimate the probability we are up 2 before the game is 5%, and the chances Utah is up 2 is 35%, leaving that game as decisive 60% of the time.

Of course if Utah is up 2 on us they may well have overtaken Denver so we're competing against the Nugs for the the 4th playoff spot - but then we may have to beat both Den and Utah to get it so it would still be decisive for us.

 

[TheKid_1]

I augmented the list a little, marking the away games for Pho & Utah...

Den: Dal: Utah: Pho:
Bos Por Tor NY
Tor Gsw @Ind @Min
Orl DEN @Was @Chi
Dal Mem NYC @Nj
POR ORL GSW @Det
LAC OKC @LAL @Mil
Okc MEM OKC SAN
LAL Por @Hou @Okc
SAN Sac @No HOU
MEM Lac @Gsw DEN
Pho SAN PHO @Uta

Good stuff, I meant to mention that the games in all caps are home games. But good looking out.

 

[Errntknght]

I thought that might be your rule, Kid, but you had LAL in all caps and it is an away game for Utah. Once I saw that I didn't check for further exceptions...

 

[95pro]

dallas loses to portland.

dallas, utah and denver all tied up for the #2 spot as of now.

back in the 5th spot, suns.

 

[hsandhu]

whatever the seeding, the best thing is to get okc in the first round (and preferably stay out of 4/5 so you wouldn't be in the same half of the bracket as the lakers).

 

[TheKid_1]

Already made up 1 against Dal and Den. This is going to be an insane finish these last 10/11 games!

 

[GYDevil]

At this rate that last game in Utah might decide the 2nd seed with the loser getting the 3rd seed. Denver and Dallas are in a tailspin. Denver is without their coach and have a brutal schedule. Dallas' schedule is about average but they are losing to bad teams right now. If you had to ask me how it shakes out right now I would call it like this. 2) Utah, 3) Suns, 4) Dallas, 5) Denver

 

[krazyasiankid]

I can see the Suns getting 4th. Mostly because of our long road trip and Nash's health. I just hope the Spurs dont get fifth.

 

[Michael]

The Pacers just had a nice run and lead Utah by 8 with 11 minutes left.
Denver is down by 10 in Toronto while San Antonio hosts the Cavs.

Let's hope we won't blow this opportunity against NY.

But then, I wouldn't be surprised to see Utah and Denver finishing strong and winning (I actually expect it in Utah's case).

 

[Michael]

The Pacers just had a nice run and lead Utah by 8 with 11 minutes left.
Denver is down by 10 in Toronto while San Antonio hosts the Cavs.

Let's hope we won't blow this opportunity against NY.

But then, I wouldn't be surprised to see Utah and Denver finishing strong and winning (I actually expect it in Utah's case).

Well, while I typed the previous message, Indiana went on a 9-0 run to start the fourth quarter while the Nuggets are about to come back and win the game.

Edit: Stupid Raptors lost it on the boards! First allowing Denver to grab the offensive rebound after a missed free throw (resulting in a game-tying three) and then an offensive rebound to give Anthony a second chance at a game winner.... Oh well, at least Utah lost.

 

[AfroSuns]

WTH, The Lakers are trailing OKC by almost 33pts in the 3rd Q.

 

[cly2tw]

Bosh lost two rebounds in the last two Denver possessions and missed one FT. Great clutch performer worth the max to those who consider Amare overpaid at 15mil. heheh

 

[Cheesebeef]

the murderer's row we play at the end of the season will probably keep us from getting one of the top three seeds. But the 4 is possible... which I would hate, seeing as we'd have to face the Lakers in the 2nd round, the one club I think we have no shot to beat... and who I'd have to watch from LA. Yuck.

Hell, I'd almost rather see us play good ball, but somehow still slip to 6 and play the Nuggets who i know we can beat, then take our chances with the Mavs or Jazz in the second round and hope someone else can knock the Lakeshow off.

 

[TheHopToad]

I think knowing the Suns history of ironicly bad luck, they will kill the rest of the regular season, get the #2 seed and face the #7 Spurs.

And we have seen that movie before...

 

[AzStevenCal]

I think knowing the Suns history of ironicly bad luck, they will kill the rest of the regular season, get the #2 seed and face the #7 Spurs.

And we have seen that movie before...

I think they might feel snake-bit when they face the Spurs but they have to believe they are at least as good as them. I don't think they feel that way about the Lakers as we've pretty much been mauled by them the past two years. I'll say it again; I'd rather start off on the road against any team other than the Lakers then have to face them in either of the first two rounds.

Steve

 

[slinslin]

Spurs losing to the Nets, lol.

We better not do the same.

 

[slinslin]

Right now the Spurs would face the Lakers in the first round which is ideal for us.

This would be my hopeful standings at the end of the season:

1. Lakers
2. Suns
3. Nuggets
4. Dallas
5. Utah
6. Portland
7. Oklahoma
8. San Antonio

That would be ideal.

Lakers eliminate Spurs
Mavs eliminate Jazz

Suns eliminate Oklahoma
Portland eliminate Denver

Mavs eliminate Lakers
Suns eliminate Portland

Suns vs Mavs WCF

 

[AfroSuns]

Right now the Spurs would face the Lakers in the first round which is ideal for us.

This would be my hopeful standings at the end of the season:

1. Lakers
2. Suns
3. Nuggets
4. Dallas
5. Utah
6. Portland
7. Oklahoma
8. San Antonio

That would be ideal.

Lakers eliminate Spurs
Mavs eliminate Jazz

Suns eliminate Oklahoma
Portland eliminate Denver

Mavs eliminate Lakers
Suns eliminate Portland

Suns vs Mavs WCF

Unless Bynum return, i wont count on the Lakers beating any team, getting owned by OKC and now losing to NOH, not to mention they have recently kinda struggled to win games