The Tavon Austin vibe....

[red desert]

I guess, but we don't know that Tavon is going to become the next Steve Smith. If you could guarantee me that Tavon Austin was going to have Steve Smith's career, he'd be the top pick in this draft class. But you can't guarantee that.

The argument isn't that Tavon sucks--although I happen to think that he's a gadget player in the NFL and not going to get the 125 receptions and 1400 yards that Mitch is predicting from him to start his career. The argument is that Austin doesn't deserve to be on top of any team's draft board because as a slot WR/scatback he has far too many question marks than other high-profile prospects at the top of the round.

You r correct in that there are no guarantees with respect to Tavon. Show me one player entering the draft that comes with an iron-clad guarantee and I'll jump off the Tavon bandwagon and climb aboard his.

 

[Mitch]

DeSean and Austin are similar with respect to straight line speed and ability in the punt return game.

However...

Where Austin is superior is the wiggle and elusiveness. He has once in a decade kinda elusiveness. DeSean not so much.

In my opinion.

Good analysis, red desert---TA has far better body control. Plus, TA is not a prima-donna---he's a team first kind of player, who brings it every day in practice---he and Fitz would be joined at the hip.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

Tavon Austin is the number one "X Factor" player in this draft. His presence on the field changes everything and puts tremendous pressure on defenses to know at all times where he is and to do all they can to contain his speed. In order to do that you have to have safety help on him over the top---which means, if you put Tavon to Fitz's side, the defense can't bracket Fitz with the safety anymore.

In addition---you can use him as a RB a few times a game and/or pitch him the ball on reverses from the slot---his career ypc at West Virginia was close to 10 yards a carry.

When you get him in the field he is unbelievably difficult to corral---his ability to run with the ball at 4.3 speed and side-step a tackler is uncanny and Barry Sanders---esque. His 0-60 speed rate is off the charts.

Check out Mel Kiper's take on TA---and because TA played at Dunbar H.S. in Maryland, Mel watched him all through high school. Check it out:

http://www.baltimoreravens.com/news...n-Austin/99100301-306e-44ad-b06e-dfafe9be6077

If you think the Cardinals are not even considering TA---guess what Steve Keim was doing moments after the Carson Palmer press conference---he was watching more tape of TA.

The object of this game is to move the chains and score TDs---this guy gives you a better chance to do that than any other player in the draft.

The bolded sounds alot like Devin Hester, who has been very limited as a WR.

 

[joeshmo]

You sure about that?

http://www.nfl.com/player/stevesmith/2504595/profile

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2013/profiles/tavon-austin?id=2539336

Because we all know that teams put out legit heights and weights. Cards had Dan Williams at 330 during the whole time that he came in way over weight, and they never changed it.

Without a shadow of a doubt he is borderline 200 lbs. Having actually shook the guys hand he is the thickest most built football player I have ever met.

 

[Mitch]

When I think of how to make our offense dynamic I always think about the Seahawks' defense and how CBs Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner cover Fitz and Floyd like candle snuffers. How they really don't fear Roberts in the slot and how they feel they can even take a nickel CB or S and blitz him off the weak side.

Tavon Austin changes all of that---the fear factor of trying to deal with him can flip the whole thing the other way.

There's a very good reason why Jim Harbaugh is practically stalking Tavon Austin right now---Harbaugh not only wants Austin in the worst way, he wants to do everything he can to assure he doesn't go to a NFC West rival.

I think that if Austin is on the board at #6, Harbaugh will call the Browns and offer a whopping 4 picks to move up. The Browns gave up their second rounder in last year's supplemental draft, so it's actually quite feasible that the Browns could warm to the idea of picking up the #31, #34, #93 and #128 picks.

That has me concerned. Harbaugh will make a move on Austin and with all those picks, he could pull it off. If he does, man, their offense would be virtually unstoppable.

 

[red desert]

Because we all know that teams put out legit heights and weights. Cards had Dan Williams at 330 during the whole time that he came in way over weight, and they never changed it.

Without a shadow of a doubt he is borderline 200 lbs. Having actually shook the guys hand he is the thickest most built football player I have ever met.

Why in the world would the Panthers want to subtract 15 pounds from Smith? Unless you made him step up on a scale - simultaneously with Tavon on a different scale - I'm afraid ill have to go with what these official websites tell me. For the sake of this discussion anyway.

I am, however, interested in learning the secret of how one can determine another persons weight by simply shaking their hand. Do tell.

 

[kerouac9]

When I think of how to make our offense dynamic I always think about the Seahawks' defense and how CBs Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner cover Fitz and Floyd like candle snuffers. How they really don't fear Roberts in the slot and how they feel they can even take a nickel CB or S and blitz him off the weak side.

Tavon Austin changes all of that---the fear factor of trying to deal with him can flip the whole thing the other way.

There's a very good reason why Jim Harbaugh is practically stalking Tavon Austin right now---Harbaugh not only wants Austin in the worst way, he wants to do everything he can to assure he doesn't go to a NFC West rival.

I think that if Austin is on the board at #6, Harbaugh will call the Browns and offer a whopping 4 picks to move up. The Browns gave up their second rounder in last year's supplemental draft, so it's actually quite feasible that the Browns could warm to the idea of picking up the #31, #34, #93 and #128 picks.

That has me concerned. Harbaugh will make a move on Austin and with all those picks, he could pull it off. If he does, man, their offense would be virtually unstoppable.

Evidence of this?

Again, this is only true as far as (1) Tavon Austin is able to catch the ball in traffic in the NFL and (2) Tavon Austin isn't on his keister having been jammed by an NFL cornerback who will have 15 lbs and 95% of the speed that he does.

For all your comparisons to Wes Welker, Welker isn't a deep threat; 5 of his 6 TDs came in the red zone last year.

Having a QB who can identify the open man and deliver the ball to him is a huge asset in the NFL. We really can't gauge the effectiveness of our current WRs because the guys delivering passes to them the last three years have been godawful. It makes no sense to continue to funnel resources into a dependent position when you don't know what you have already there.

 

[red desert]

When I think of how to make our offense dynamic I always think about the Seahawks' defense and how CBs Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner cover Fitz and Floyd like candle snuffers. How they really don't fear Roberts in the slot and how they feel they can even take a nickel CB or S and blitz him off the weak side.

Tavon Austin changes all of that---the fear factor of trying to deal with him can flip the whole thing the other way.

There's a very good reason why Jim Harbaugh is practically stalking Tavon Austin right now---Harbaugh not only wants Austin in the worst way, he wants to do everything he can to assure he doesn't go to a NFC West rival.

I think that if Austin is on the board at #6, Harbaugh will call the Browns and offer a whopping 4 picks to move up. The Browns gave up their second rounder in last year's supplemental draft, so it's actually quite feasible that the Browns could warm to the idea of picking up the #31, #34, #93 and #128 picks.

That has me concerned. Harbaugh will make a move on Austin and with all those picks, he could pull it off. If he does, man, their offense would be virtually unstoppable.

Very real possibility. Especially now that Seattle has Harvin.

Folks, we are in the middle of a bonafide arms race. We gotta arm ourselves accordingly or risk getting blown out of the water before the combat even begins.

 

[HoodieBets]

Watching Austin play I personally feel like he is the next wes welker and could be a 100+ catch guy. Welker is as tough as they come too and he is just as tiny.

 

[Buckybird]

Tavon Austin is the number one "X Factor" player in this draft. His presence on the field changes everything and puts tremendous pressure on defenses to know at all times where he is and to do all they can to contain his speed. In order to do that you have to have safety help on him over the top---which means, if you put Tavon to Fitz's side, the defense can't bracket Fitz with the safety anymore.

In addition---you can use him as a RB a few times a game and/or pitch him the ball on reverses from the slot---his career ypc at West Virginia was close to 10 yards a carry.

When you get him in the field he is unbelievably difficult to corral---his ability to run with the ball at 4.3 speed and side-step a tackler is uncanny and Barry Sanders---esque. His 0-60 speed rate is off the charts.

Check out Mel Kiper's take on TA---and because TA played at Dunbar H.S. in Maryland, Mel watched him all through high school. Check it out:

http://www.baltimoreravens.com/news...n-Austin/99100301-306e-44ad-b06e-dfafe9be6077

If you think the Cardinals are not even considering TA---guess what Steve Keim was doing moments after the Carson Palmer press conference---he was watching more tape of TA.

The object of this game is to move the chains and score TDs---this guy gives you a better chance to do that than any other player in the draft.

You don't have to defend the kid to me Mitch, he's a game breaker. Living down in Big 12 country I saw him all year long & there isn't another offensive game changer in this draft like him, too bad we drafted Floyd last year because he isn't a game changer just like I said last year before we picked him.

Plenty of other players coming into the league have been criticized because of size to...Ray Rice, Sproles, DeSean Jackson, etc. With the rules of safety & way players can be hit changing, it even further adds to his skillset IMO.

 

[kerouac9]

You r correct in that there are no guarantees with respect to Tavon. Show me one player entering the draft that comes with an iron-clad guarantee and I'll jump off the Tavon bandwagon and climb aboard his.

That's right--no prospect is guaranteed. So you weigh the potential of a player against the risks that are known and unknown.

Is Wes Welker a special player? He wasn't pre-Tom Brady. So if Tavon Austin is the next Wes Welker, and you don't have Tom Brady, then he's not a Top 10 pick.

Has there been a prototype for a WR being successful at 5'8", 170 lbs? That's a major risk, considering the injury history that a much bigger player of the same style--DeSean Jackson--has endured.

Is Austin a system fit? Not if he's going to be used like the Pats use Wes Welker--which is primarily as a catch-and-run, short area weapon in the slot.

Can Tavon Austin be a system fit? Completely unknown, since Austin got most of his touches on bubble screens, draws, and short passes that he turned into long ones.

 

[red desert]

That's right--no prospect is guaranteed. So you weigh the potential of a player against the risks that are known and unknown.

Is Wes Welker a special player? He wasn't pre-Tom Brady. So if Tavon Austin is the next Wes Welker, and you don't have Tom Brady, then he's not a Top 10 pick.

Has there been a prototype for a WR being successful at 5'8", 170 lbs? That's a major risk, considering the injury history that a much bigger player of the same style--DeSean Jackson--has endured.

Is Austin a system fit? Not if he's going to be used like the Pats use Wes Welker--which is primarily as a catch-and-run, short area weapon in the slot.

Can Tavon Austin be a system fit? Completely unknown, since Austin got most of his touches on bubble screens, draws, and short passes that he turned into long ones.

You are spot on about Welker. I don't see Austin as strictly a Welker type player. He is so much more. He can do what Welker does, but is quicker and faster. He can do what DeSean does, but is quicker and just as fast. He can do what Percy Harvin does, but is quicker and faster. Tavon's "shake" is wicked good. None of the others possess it at his level. That makes him a superior and more explosive player than all the rest.

Bubble screens, draws, and short passes? Damn right. He is so good that even in the NFL he can take those plays and make them highlight reel worthy. And he can do so much more.

Welker, DeSean and Harvin, are "one miss" players. Meaning they can make the first guy miss, but not much more than that on any given play. Tavon Austin is a "3 + miss" player, meaning he can make 3 or more guys miss the tackle on any given play. And that, my friend, is special. Not too many of those around. Barry Sanders was the last player with that type of game changing ability.

 

[red desert]

Btw, K9, admit it, you dig my avatar, don't you?

 

[kerouac9]

Btw, K9, admit it, you dig my avatar, don't you?

I actually am physically revolted by it. You seem pretty emotionally wrapped up in a kid the Cards have a very small chance of drafting.

 

[mojorizen7]

I would add this---some of you are old enough to remember Terry Metcalf and Mel Gray and how they electrified the Cardinals' offense---well, Tavon Austin is Terry Metcalf and Mel Gray combined. In TA---you get both---so for those of you who are thinking "oh just another WR", that's not the case---add in what he does for you in flipping the field on returns and you are talking about an electrifying triple-threat.

My 2 cents on Austin. Believe me Mitch,Rams fans are paying attention

I would agree with those who say that spending a top 10 pick on Tavon is pretty risky,but only because those teams picking there have more pressing needs at DLine,OLine and pass rushers.

I've heard many player comparisons that try to justify his size and the pounding he may take....thats a fair point to be sure,but there have been guys that have entered the league as playmaking smurphs and had success. Austin has never even missed a practice at WVU,let alone games. Just something to think about.

Darren Sproles,Metcalf(as you mentioned Mitch),Dante Hall(although he was primarily a returner and end-around gadget on offense)...D.Hall had a 9 year career. Sproles has bulked up a little since entering the NFL and he's had a successful 8 years and still going.

A fellow fan on another board threw down an old school player comparison to Austin that made me go ""hmmm..." Gary Clark. 5'9" 175lbs and a member of the old Redskins Posse in the 80's. Dude put up over 10,000 career rec yds. Of course most Cardinals fans remember Clark...

Yeah the NFL has changed and players are bigger,faster and stronger than they were 20 yrs ago,but Austin is a weapon,that can be lined up all over the field for your offense...and will likely be dynamite on PR's.

I like K.Allen as the top WR(if he's over the injury),Austin, then C.Patterson in that order.

Austin.
Top 10? Risky.
Top 20? Smart.

In my opinion if he falls past St Louis at #16,someone will trade up a few slots to grab him. SF?(ugghh) Minnesota? Indianapolis?
I think the Vikings with two 1sr rd picks are targeting Austin,with Harvin being gone.

BTW Mitch,i enjoy your posts in here.

 

[red desert]

I actually am physically revolted by it. You seem pretty emotionally wrapped up in a kid the Cards have a very small chance of drafting.

Wouldn't say I'm emotionally wrapped up in the kid, but it is that time of year. Anything is possible.

But really, check it...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6N9rGftfUlU

 

[Cardiac]

I'm furious with Mitch & red desert. No one I can see the Cards drafting a WR when they already have a #3 and #13 overall picks and a 3rd rd pick at the position. But you keep posting about how awesome he is and how the Cards can use him and I think .........hmm.......maybe.........

I'm using aversion therapy on my self now. Slamming the laptop lid on my fingers.

GET a dynamic pass rusher or a stud Olineman at 7.

 

[kerouac9]

Wouldn't say I'm emotionally wrapped up in the kid, but it is that time of year. Anything is possible.

But really, check it...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6N9rGftfUlU

Don't watch highlight reels. Well, go ahead and watch them. They're fun. But if you find yourself intrigued by a highlight reel, watch some of the cutups of a player from a game or multiple games. There are a ton out there on YouTube, and they're awesome.

I watched Austin's cutups of the Oklahoma game, and I saw a great college player whom I'm not confident is going to be great at the next level. His speed is definitely amazing, but when you're drafting in the Top 15, you can't take a guy who is just dynamic in certain situations. Darren Sproles is dynamic in certain situations, but he wasn't a first-round pick. He was a fourth-round pick.

LSH is dynamic in certain situations, but he's sitting out there in the free agent market waiting for the phone to ring.

A first-round pick is so valuable. You can get a guy like Austin who could be dynamic on 80% of 15% of the plays in your playbook, or you could get a guy like Cooper/Warmack/Johnson/Fisher/Joekel who would be above-average on 90% of 100% of the plays in your playbook.

That's why you don't use Top 15 picks on situational players, unless the situation is going to be 3rd and 6 and you're confident that guy is going to be able to produce pressure 60-70% of the time.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

Why would Harbuagh be hot after Austin when he has LaMichael James on his roster? Wasn't James basically Austin in last year's draft? Just instead of handing him the ball all the time, they threw it to him at the LOS and let him run. Even then, Austin's best game was the Oklahoma game where he carried the ball 20+ times.

 

[red desert]

Don't watch highlight reels. Well, go ahead and watch them. They're fun. But if you find yourself intrigued by a highlight reel, watch some of the cutups of a player from a game or multiple games. There are a ton out there on YouTube, and they're awesome.

I watched Austin's cutups of the Oklahoma game, and I saw a great college player whom I'm not confident is going to be great at the next level. His speed is definitely amazing, but when you're drafting in the Top 15, you can't take a guy who is just dynamic in certain situations. Darren Sproles is dynamic in certain situations, but he wasn't a first-round pick. He was a fourth-round pick.

LSH is dynamic in certain situations, but he's sitting out there in the free agent market waiting for the phone to ring.

A first-round pick is so valuable. You can get a guy like Austin who could be dynamic on 80% of 15% of the plays in your playbook, or you could get a guy like Cooper/Warmack/Johnson/Fisher/Joekel who would be above-average on 90% of 100% of the plays in your playbook.

That's why you don't use Top 15 picks on situational players, unless the situation is going to be 3rd and 6 and you're confident that guy is going to be able to produce pressure 60-70% of the time.

I understand what you stating. But again, we really could go round and round on this point.

1) Wendell Bryant? Jason Smith recently released by Rams? Robert Gallery? Not saying Fischer or Joekel are going to bust like the aforementioned, but who really knows for sure.

2) To compare Austin to LSH or Sproles in that context is wrong, IMO. Austin is so a superior talent.

 

[red desert]

Why would Harbuagh be hot after Austin when he has LaMichael James on his roster? Wasn't James basically Austin in last year's draft? Just instead of handing him the ball all the time, they threw it to him at the LOS and let him run. Even then, Austin's best game was the Oklahoma game where he carried the ball 20+ times.

Really, you're camparing LaMichael James to Austin?

 

[Totally_Red]

Matt Millen lives on among ASFN posters.

I'd love to have the kid, but we need to spend a precious top-ten pick on one of the top five offensive linemen or Dion Jordan or Jarvis Jones in a trade-down.

 

[az jam]

Really, you're camparing LaMichael James to Austin?

Why note? James had 58 tds in 3 years at Oregon while Austin has had 40 tds in 4 yrs at WVU. He is the same height but 20 lbs heavier and ran a 4.37 40 at the Combine.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

Really, you're camparing LaMichael James to Austin?

Since they are very similar players, yes.

 

[kerouac9]

I understand what you stating. But again, we really could go round and round on this point.

1) Wendell Bryant? Jason Smith recently released by Rams? Robert Gallery? Not saying Fischer or Joekel are going to bust like the aforementioned, but who really knows for sure.

2) To compare Austin to LSH or Sproles in that context is wrong, IMO. Austin is so a superior talent.

Look, red, you can smack down any questions about Austin that you want, but I'd like to hear an affirmative case for him that takes these question marks into account. Yes, his wiggle is impressive, but--especially for a wide receiver in the NFL--those kinds of spaces are few and far between in the NFL, even in the kicking game.

I totally agree with you that when Tavon Austin gets the ball with no one within four or five yards of him, he can be a special player. But that doesn't happen often in the NFL. That being the case, then you have to ask how he can perform in a down-by-down situation. Can he make the catch in traffic? I haven't seen it. Can he go over the middle? I have no idea.

If you believe that Tavon Austin has no parallel in the history of the NFL, then at least make that provision and admit that there's a tremendous risk to drafting a prospect very high that hasn't been shown to have a role that justifies that draft position.

You point to all these players that have busted on the OL and other positions (and I wasn't in favor of drafting Wendell Bryant in the first place, and it's come out that he had off-the-field problems that lead to his poor performance), but you haven't said that wide receivers are tremendously risky high in the draft, particularly wideouts who lack ideal size for the position.