The Truth About Leinart and Warner

[moklerman]

Okay, the Eli/Leinart argument is officially ludicrous. Should we list every QB that's flopped after having a very subpar start to their career for comparison? On top of that, the book is still very much out on Eli. He had a great playoff run in which his defense averaged 17 points allowed in 4 playoff games.

Was it premature to give up on Akili Smith after only 17 starts? How 'bout Cade McNown after 17 starts? Ryan Leaf only got 21 starts. Weinke-20. Chad Hutchinson-14. Doug Johnson-11. The list goes on and on. These guys all have the same type of stat's that Leinart has put up so far and most with a lot less talent on offense. Okay, Akili and Leaf are pretty far behind but Leinart is right there with Cade McNown and Doug Johnson. Cade freakin' McNown!

 

[ajcardfan]

Look, I like Warner. I really do. I think he could put us in the playoffs.

But, this rush to start him is absurd. Do we not remember the Seattle game? New Orelans? The Niners?

Here's a refresher (I even defend Warner in these threads):

http://www.arizonasportsfans.com/vb...g-warner-103900.html?highlight=Warner+Seattle



http://www.arizonasportsfans.com/vb...arner-103535-2.html?highlight=Warner+Seattle&


Let 'em compete. I think Whisenhunt will pick the right guy. Or, he'll alternate them. I don't care who starts as long as we're winning.

 

[D-Dogg]

Okay, the Eli/Leinart argument is officially ludicrous. Should we list every QB that's flopped after having a very subpar start to their career for comparison? On top of that, the book is still very much out on Eli. He had a great playoff run in which his defense averaged 17 points allowed in 4 playoff games.

Was it premature to give up on Akili Smith after only 17 starts? How 'bout Cade McNown after 17 starts? Ryan Leaf only got 21 starts. Weinke-20. Chad Hutchinson-14. Doug Johnson-11. The list goes on and on. These guys all have the same type of stat's that Leinart has put up so far and most with a lot less talent on offense. Okay, Akili and Leaf are pretty far behind but Leinart is right there with Cade McNown and Doug Johnson. Cade freakin' McNown!

Oh come on. Can't a guy have a little fun with some revisionist history?

 

[moklerman]

McNown-15 starts, 54.6%, 3,111 yards, 16 td 19 int 67.7 rating
D. Johnson-11 starts, 56.8%, 2,600 yards, 13 td 18 int 69.4 rating
Leinart-16 starts, 56.0%, 3,194 yards, 13 td 16 int 71.2 rating
Hutchinson-14 starts, 53.3%, 2,466 yards, 11 td 11 int 69.9 rating
A.J. Feely-15 starts, 55.9%, 4,070 yards, 27 td 29 int 69.6 rating
Charlie Frye-19 starts, 62.4%, 3,490 yards, 14 td 23 int 71.1 rating

Now, can one honestly say that any of the names on this list(not named Leinart) are thought of with respect or potential?

 

[D-Dogg]

McNown-15 starts, 54.6%, 3,111 yards, 16 td 19 int 67.7 rating
D. Johnson-11 starts, 56.8%, 2,600 yards, 13 td 18 int 69.4 rating
Leinart-16 starts, 56.0%, 3,194 yards, 13 td 16 int 71.2 rating
Hutchinson-14 starts, 53.3%, 2,466 yards, 11 td 11 int 69.9 rating
A.J. Feely-15 starts, 55.9%, 4,070 yards, 27 td 29 int 69.6 rating
Charlie Frye-19 starts, 62.4%, 3,490 yards, 14 td 23 int 71.1 rating

Now, can one honestly say that any of the names on this list(not named Leinart) are thought of with respect or potential?

I'm not going to do a lot of research, but am going at the first guy I looked at.

Ok, so how about this one? 11 starts (like Johnson above).
11 starts, 52.9%, 1749 yards, 9 td, 18 int 55.7 rating

That would be....


Troy Aikman

 

[D-Dogg]

I'm not going to do a lot of research, but am going at the first guy I looked at.

Ok, so how about this one? 11 starts (like Johnson above).
11 starts, 52.9%, 1749 yards, 9 td, 18 int 55.7 rating

That would be....


Troy Aikman

Ok, so a bit more research.

For reference, Leinart's line:

Leinart-16 starts, 56.0%, 3,194 yards, 13 td 16 int 71.2 rating

These are all top 20 (all but one top 13) QBs from last season, in their first year of starting, approximate number of games to ML...not sure on starts, but have games played.

16 games, 60.8%, 3,284 yards, 17 tds, 16 int, 76.9 rating (second season)

That would be:

Drew Brees

13 games 60.9% 2,897 yards, 18 td, 18 int, 77.3 rating (second season)

That would be:

Carson Palmer

12 games 49.1% 948 yards, 8 td, 7 int, 60.1 rating (rookie year)

That would be:

Donovan McNabb (and his second year was comparable, but better in td/int ratio, though the same amount of games as ML overall)

15 games, 63.2% 3,845 yards 22 td, 22 int, 81.4 rating (3rd year)

That would be:

Marc Bulger (and the rams lost a double OT game for a shot at the NFC title game that season)

15 games, 63.9%, 2,843 yards, 18 td, 12 int, 86.5 rating (2nd season)

That would be:

Tom Brady...won super bowl that year, much better passer rating, much better team

15 games, 54.5%, 3,346 yards, 23 td, 16 int, 77.7 rating (3rd season)

That would be:

Jon Kitna, and though you may berate him, he tossed for 4K yards in back to back years on really bad teams.

So, what does this all mean?

Not more or less than the stats you posted. But it does mean one thing, that is very important. Trying to pigeonhole Leinart as a flop this early in his career is stupid. We just don't know. He has injury issues, yes. He had decision problems last season, yes...with his 3rd QB coach in two years and second head coach. And god knows how many OCs. He has shown flashes of brilliance and flashes of crap. But we don't know. It is time to relinquish the reigns of "we know better than them" to the coaches who KNOW him better than we do. Every aspect. His demeanor. His work ethic. His footwork. His dedication. His value to the team.

Coach Whis and his crew do NOT want to fail. They want to win. And if they really feel that Matt is the man to lead the team to wins, then we should probably **** and relax and see if they are right. If they are...pop the corks! If they aren't, then we have bigger problems than Matt v. Kurt 2.0.

We can cite stats all night, which I'm sure my post made you itch to do. But bottom line, nothing will be proven until this team hits the field.

 

[black]

I am not anti-Matt, just pro-Kurt. I think Leinart will be great in time, I am just not too certain that Warner isn't the best man right now. I am tired of rebuilding. This team is playoff ready and needs to have the best players on the field, regardless of circumstances.

That said, I dont think Whiz will leave Leinart in too long if he is tanking, and we do need to know for certain exactly what we have in him.

Stop the presses! We agree on a topic. OMG

 

[RugbyMuffin]

Ok, so a bit more research.

For reference, Leinart's line:

Leinart-16 starts, 56.0%, 3,194 yards, 13 td 16 int 71.2 rating

These are all top 20 (all but one top 13) QBs from last season, in their first year of starting, approximate number of games to ML...not sure on starts, but have games played.

16 games, 60.8%, 3,284 yards, 17 tds, 16 int, 76.9 rating (second season)

That would be:

Drew Brees

13 games 60.9% 2,897 yards, 18 td, 18 int, 77.3 rating (second season)

That would be:

Carson Palmer

12 games 49.1% 948 yards, 8 td, 7 int, 60.1 rating (rookie year)

That would be:

Donovan McNabb (and his second year was comparable, but better in td/int ratio, though the same amount of games as ML overall)

15 games, 63.2% 3,845 yards 22 td, 22 int, 81.4 rating (3rd year)

That would be:

Marc Bulger (and the rams lost a double OT game for a shot at the NFC title game that season)

15 games, 63.9%, 2,843 yards, 18 td, 12 int, 86.5 rating (2nd season)

That would be:

Tom Brady...won super bowl that year, much better passer rating, much better team

15 games, 54.5%, 3,346 yards, 23 td, 16 int, 77.7 rating (3rd season)

That would be:

Jon Kitna, and though you may berate him, he tossed for 4K yards in back to back years on really bad teams.

So, what does this all mean?

Not more or less than the stats you posted. But it does mean one thing, that is very important. Trying to pigeonhole Leinart as a flop this early in his career is stupid. We just don't know. He has injury issues, yes. He had decision problems last season, yes...with his 3rd QB coach in two years and second head coach. And god knows how many OCs. He has shown flashes of brilliance and flashes of crap. But we don't know. It is time to relinquish the reigns of "we know better than them" to the coaches who KNOW him better than we do. Every aspect. His demeanor. His work ethic. His footwork. His dedication. His value to the team.

Coach Whis and his crew do NOT want to fail. They want to win. And if they really feel that Matt is the man to lead the team to wins, then we should probably **** and relax and see if they are right. If they are...pop the corks! If they aren't, then we have bigger problems than Matt v. Kurt 2.0.

We can cite stats all night, which I'm sure my post made you itch to do. But bottom line, nothing will be proven until this team hits the field.

Donald, you and your lemon chiffon type color.

You both get the

 

[RugbyMuffin]

Add in his injuries and his overall stock is certainly deserving of doubt.

The same can be said about Warner.

He has had one good year in the last 5 season, and has had some injury issues as well. Not to mention fumblitis, and some ill advised INT's.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

McNown-15 starts, 54.6%, 3,111 yards, 16 td 19 int 67.7 rating
D. Johnson-11 starts, 56.8%, 2,600 yards, 13 td 18 int 69.4 rating
Leinart-16 starts, 56.0%, 3,194 yards, 13 td 16 int 71.2 rating
Hutchinson-14 starts, 53.3%, 2,466 yards, 11 td 11 int 69.9 rating
A.J. Feely-15 starts, 55.9%, 4,070 yards, 27 td 29 int 69.6 rating
Charlie Frye-19 starts, 62.4%, 3,490 yards, 14 td 23 int 71.1 rating

Now, can one honestly say that any of the names on this list(not named Leinart) are thought of with respect or potential?

It is nice to see that Leinart's name is has the best rating next to it.

If any NFL team were to have the lack of patience that some have here, they would never be able to attain a QB.

At what point did any of the guys on the list above, besides Leinart, show any promise ?

If you call the comparision to all QB's that have had success after a shaky start a moot point then the same goes for the ones that did not have success after a shaky start.

If you go with Warner we might win now, and even make the playoffs. But we won't win in the future that is for sure, and then we will be back on the Dave Brown, Kent Graham, Jeff Blake, Luke McCown carosel. NO THANK YOU.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

All this said, expect for Warner to be the team's starting QB come game one. Kent Somers said that Leinart will be not be given a quick hook? How quick will it seem when Warner trots out with the offense versus the 49ers?

Care to take a gentlemen's bet on that ?

Cause it's not gonna happen.

 

[D-Dogg]

Donald, you and your lemon chiffon type color.

You both get the

right back atcha!

Damn, I love that icon!!!

 

[D-Dogg]

Care to take a gentlemen's bet on that ?

Cause it's not gonna happen.

If by "gentlemen's bet" you mean, farm, tractor, car, wife, first thru twentieth born child, then I think you miiiiiiight be venturing into the odds that makes Mitch's super-duper-wild-hair-guess a decent bet.

 

[black]

Donald, what happened to the Kobe avatar.....he he he

 

[D-Dogg]

Donald, what happened to the Kobe avatar.....he he he

Never had one. My laker avatar was The Machine, not Kobe. Sasha baby! Back in the finals next year to slay the green cancer celtics.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

If by "gentlemen's bet" you mean, farm, tractor, car, wife, first thru twentieth born child, then I think you miiiiiiight be venturing into the odds that makes Mitch's super-duper-wild-hair-guess a decent bet.

Good question........ It would have to be something noticable and horrid.

Like we would have to change our avatar to a Laker avatar or somthing.

Cowboys ?

 

[black]

Never had one. My laker avatar was The Machine, not Kobe. Sasha baby! Back in the finals next year to slay the green cancer celtics.

Some Laker avatar or something of a front runner type fan thing.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

right back atcha!

Damn, I love that icon!!!

It is great.

I should get with Chandler Mike. I got LOADS of smilies he could use. It looks cool if you get one under another.

 

[Totally_Red]

Matt Leinart has durability issues and other than a few flashes has not been impressive IMO. Granted he's had three offensive systems and coordinators in three years. I just think management wants to find out what they have in Matt and he'll be given every opportunity to improve and become the team's QB for the next ten years.

What will be interesting is how patient Whis and company are with him if he stumbles coming out of the gate. Hopefully he comes out strong and works thru any issues. The Cardinals have got to start strong, because IMO the schedule gets increasingly more difficult as the season progresses.

There will be tremendous pressure on Matt to lead this offense to new heights in 2008. He got a lot of money from the Cardinals to be the franchise quarterback. It's time to start earning that money this year IMO.

 

[Mitch]

First of all, this thread is not an attempt to disparage Matt Leinart...Leinart may still turn into a good NFL QB...and he remains the team's QBOF (signed through 2011).

What we need to realize, IMO, is what the scenario would look like if Warner had been named the starter heading into TC.

The Cardinals are tight on the cap, as we all know...and they already have the unresolved contract issues with key players such as Boldin and Dansby.

If the Cards had tabbed Warner the starter heading into TC, he would have had a legitimate case that he be paid a starter's salary. His current salary is about as good as a #2 is going to get, but it's not commensurate with the average starter's salaries.

So...the Cards...who are already paying Leinart a lucrative salary, elect to tab Leinart as the starter, and relegate Warner, once again, to the so-called backup role...that way Warner, at his age, won't make a salary fuss.

The curious thing is: now the Cards want to sign Warner to another extension...but not as the starter...and not at starter's money. Does anyone think th Cards are legitimately concerned about Warner's age? Not the way he played last year. Not at all. Yes, they don't like the turnovers...no one does...but they sure like lighting up what has been a dark scoreboard for over a decade now.

But...here's the thing...not only is it hard to ignore Warner's stats (27 TDs and stellar red zone efficiency, in particular)...but check this out: here are the points the Cards put on the board in the second half of last season with Warner under center:

31, 35, 31, 27, 21, 24, 30, 48 (5-3 record) = average of 31 pts/game

31 points a game!!! These are the Cardinals were are talking about here!!! (Note: and neither Boldin nor Fitzgerald were healthy at the same time during that stretch)

The problem is, in the Cards' three losses they gave up 37, 42 and 31 points...so what was the focus of this off-season? DEFENSE. Look at the new faces: Haggans, LaBoy, Bryan Robinson, Campbell (2nd), Iwebma (4th), Harrington (6th), Dykes, Stewart, Highsmith, and Rodgers-Cromartie (1st).

The conclusion is: put up similar numbers on offense and tighten up the defense = 2008 NFC West Champions.

Plus, when you look at the throws Warner zips with ease...like the 20 yard seam or post (for example: the passes down the field to Boldin in the Baltimore game)...this is what Whiz and Haley need and want from their QB...and until Leinart (who has tended to be high and late with those throws) can rival Warner in that regard, Warner will prevail.

Lastly, Whiz has to know how important it is to build on last year's momentum...he cannot afford to watch a QB struggle early in the season, thus getting the team off to a dubious start (like last year)...Whiz needs his Cards to come out firing on all cylinders the way they were down the stretch last year, when, Kurt Warner was throwing darts for big gains and more TDs than we've seen in Arizona in ages.

 

[BigRedRage]

Matt Leinart was deemed, by the coaching staff, as the team's starter heading into TC for one simple reason: the Cardinals do not want to have to pay Kurt Warner a starter's salary.

Sure...the Cards would love to get maximum value on Leinart, the team's 1st round pick in 2006, #10 overall. No question.

But...if they appointed Warner the starter heading into TC, and applauded Warner for throwing 27 TDs and a top three in the league red zone proficiency with torn ligs--no less--in his left elbow...Warner would be in a logical position to command a starter's salary.

Now...the team wants to reup Warner on a short-term extension, and some say the deal will get done before TC...not so fast...Warner may likely take his chances, seize the starter's job, as some, including myself, expect him to do, and then parlay this year's performance into a lucrative two-year extension (with the Cards) or on the free agent market come next March.

Warner, as loyal and gracious as he is, may accept a hometown discount with the Cards...and may even sign an extension before TC...as he and his family are probably tired of changing residences.

All this said, expect for Warner to be the team's starting QB come game one. Kent Somers said that Leinart will be not be given a quick hook? How quick will it seem when Warner trots out with the offense versus the 49ers?

IMO, Warner deserves to be the starter...he performed more than well enough last year to merit the job. Yes, the coaches want to see him protect the ball better...but they have already been stressing this with him.

It's no fluke that Warner was getting as many reps with the first team offense during voluntary workouts...he gives the team the best chance to win, because he can make the throws that Whiz and Haley want, more than just a tad better than Leinart.

It's really this simple.

If it was that simple, it would happen. Lienart will be the starter. Your scenario makes as much sense as your "source"

 

[BigRedRage]

First of all, this thread is not an attempt to disparage Matt Leinart...Leinart may still turn into a good NFL QB...and he remains the team's QBOF (signed through 2011).

What we need to realize, IMO, is what the scenario would look like if Warner had been named the starter heading into TC.

The Cardinals are tight on the cap, as we all know...and they already have the unresolved contract issues with key players such as Boldin and Dansby.

If the Cards had tabbed Warner the starter heading into TC, he would have had a legitimate case that he be paid a starter's salary. His current salary is about as good as a #2 is going to get, but it's not commensurate with the average starter's salaries.

So...the Cards...who are already paying Leinart a lucrative salary, elect to tab Leinart as the starter, and relegate Warner, once again, to the so-called backup role...that way Warner, at his age, won't make a salary fuss.

The curious thing is: now the Cards want to sign Warner to another extension...but not as the starter...and not at starter's money. Does anyone think th Cards are legitimately concerned about Warner's age? Not the way he played last year. Not at all. Yes, they don't like the turnovers...no one does...but they sure like lighting up what has been a dark scoreboard for over a decade now.

But...here's the thing...not only is it hard to ignore Warner's stats (27 TDs and stellar red zone efficiency, in particular)...but check this out: here are the points the Cards put on the board in the second half of last season with Warner under center:

31, 35, 31, 27, 21, 24, 30, 48 (5-3 record) = average of 31 pts/game

31 points a game!!! These are the Cardinals were are talking about here!!! (Note: and neither Boldin nor Fitzgerald were healthy at the same time during that stretch)

The problem is, in the Cards' three losses they gave up 37, 42 and 31 points...so what was the focus of this off-season? DEFENSE. Look at the new faces: Haggans, LaBoy, Bryan Robinson, Campbell (2nd), Iwebma (4th), Harrington (6th), Dykes, Stewart, Highsmith, and Rodgers-Cromartie (1st).

The conclusion is: put up similar numbers on offense and tighten up the defense = 2008 NFC West Champions.

Plus, when you look at the throws Warner zips with ease...like the 20 yard seam or post (for example: the passes down the field to Boldin in the Baltimore game)...this is what Whiz and Haley need and want from their QB...and until Leinart (who has tended to be high and late with those throws) can rival Warner in that regard, Warner will prevail.

Lastly, Whiz has to know how important it is to build on last year's momentum...he cannot afford to watch a QB struggle early in the season, thus getting the team off to a dubious start (like last year)...Whiz needs his Cards to come out firing on all cylinders the way they were down the stretch last year, when, Kurt Warner was throwing darts for big gains and more TDs than we've seen in Arizona in ages.

Matt was named the starter because the coach wants him to start. I dont believe Whiz gives two ***** about how much money warner would have commanded.

Stop making claims based off of opinions, you are acting like those who are replying to you dont know **** and you are right when really, you have no idea who is right.

 

[joeshmo]

Okay, the Eli/Leinart argument is officially ludicrous. Should we list every QB that's flopped after having a very subpar start to their career for comparison? On top of that, the book is still very much out on Eli. He had a great playoff run in which his defense averaged 17 points allowed in 4 playoff games.

Was it premature to give up on Akili Smith after only 17 starts? How 'bout Cade McNown after 17 starts? Ryan Leaf only got 21 starts. Weinke-20. Chad Hutchinson-14. Doug Johnson-11. The list goes on and on. These guys all have the same type of stat's that Leinart has put up so far and most with a lot less talent on offense. Okay, Akili and Leaf are pretty far behind but Leinart is right there with Cade McNown and Doug Johnson. Cade freakin' McNown!

Your arguement just turned absolutley ridiculous. McNown? Is that really whom you want to try and consider as a possible comparison to Matt?

McNown missed most of training camp. Just to show the cahracter of the guy he actually pulled himself out of a game not on the coaches decision by becuase McNown wasnt feeling it so he sat himself! The guy was a loser.

I understand you like Warner and that makes you biased, we all do it with what ever we feel strongly about. But lets at least be realistic with our biases.

 

[joeshmo]

It's time to start earning that money this year IMO.

Actually he isnt making all that much money. His contract was set up so that he would have to earn his money. His total contract if he reached every escalator and incentive would pay him 6 years 51 mill.. He only got a 7.5 Mill signing bonus, and a 7.5 Mill. Option bonus in 2007. His base salaries are as follows -
2006: $235,000
2007: $545,000
2008: $735,000
2009: $1.11 million
2010: $2.485 million
2011: $7.36 million

His deal without incentives or escalators is only worth 6 years 26.5 Mill. Half of his 51 Mill is locked up in incentives and escalators making his contract truley one that he has to earn.

Kurt Warner makes 500K more then Matt does this year.

 

[moklerman]

Matt was named the starter because the coach wants him to start.

Stop making claims based off of opinions,

Now, you don't really know what Whis thinks, do you?

If you call the comparision to all QB's that have had success after a shaky start a moot point then the same goes for the ones that did not have success after a shaky start.

My list was to illustrate that I could come up with just as many names(or more) that have put up poor stat's to start their career and never got better. Many seem to be using Eli as some kind of proof that a team should always stick with their young QB and eventually it will lead to post season success. This discussion gets muddied because Warner was in NY and now in Arizona but he wasn't the same QB in NY that he is now. 2002-2006 Warner had physical limitations that meant he could not sustain a starter's job. It appears that the gloves have reduced that and he is playing with 1999-2001 form. The better comparison, to me, is Eli and Leinart are both being forced into action because of the size of their contract.

If you go with Warner we might win now, and even make the playoffs. But we won't win in the future that is for sure, and then we will be back on the Dave Brown, Kent Graham, Jeff Blake, Luke McCown carosel. NO THANK YOU.

I think you go with the shot at the playoffs when you can get it. I understand not wanting to worry about the QB position but with Warner you've got a guy who is a good leader, puts up good numbers and can lead the team to wins. With Leinart...? No one knows. Is he going to be another high round bust for the Cards or not? I don't understand why, if you want a solid/good QB you'd toss out the guy who's putting up good numbers for the guy who's been on a steady decline since very early success. Leinart isn't getting progressively better, he's progressively getting worse. Oh, and that whole "get's injured every year" thing. He's also signed 'til 2011. What's so horrible about Warner in 08 and 09(if he's still producing at a high level) and then Leinart in 10 and 11?

He has had one good year in the last 5 season, and has had some injury issues as well.

That's true but his best season was last year. Leinart hasn't looked so promising since his third start in 06. Actually, now that I think about it, I don't agree with Warner only having one good year since 02. His seasons have been relatively good. The fumbilitis was the actual issue with him. That seems to have been reduced to an acceptable level.

Trying to pigeonhole Leinart as a flop this early in his career is stupid. We just don't know. He has injury issues, yes. He had decision problems last season, yes...with his 3rd QB coach in two years and second head coach.

Again, I don't disagree with the sentiment but I don't see any name on that list who had the type of production Warner offers as an option. Before anyone points to Kitna, the writing was on the wall and he knew it and had a huge dropoff in 04 before he was benched.