What should be the asking price be for Hollywood?(Carolina)

[PDXChris]

Brown has had Lamar Jackson passing for him the majority of his career, no receiver looks great when he is the guy passing to them.

Last year he started out on fire with Kyler - that is the real player. The stats just don't tell the whole story, Brown has better hands and gets more open than kirk.

This guy came in the league with Jackson and is doing just fine catching passes from him.

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[kerouac9]

Why keep a young, talented player?

Didn't you just say he wasn't getting traded?

If that's the case, every locker room would be a mess. Only one, or maybe two if they are lucky get new contracts per year.

I don't think he's getting traded. But there are only a handful of ways that you can quantify the value of a player -- what you'd trade him for and what you'd pay to keep him.

The Tennenbaum quote is really about how you build a roster. You don't want to build it around expensive free agents whom you don't really know when you're bringing them into your building. You want your top-paid guys to be home-grown and part of your culture.

I think you'd look around the league and find that the top-paid guys in most groups are home-grown or been around for a long time. Good players aren't allowed to leave in their prime in good franchses.

 

[PDXChris]

I'd pay Brown $12 million a year in a heartbeat. I'd go as high as $15, but if they extended now and front loaded it a bit. Not a dollar more.

 

[cardncubfan]

By literally ZERO metric is this true. Kirk averages more yards per game for his career. At the same point in Brown and Kirk’s career, Kirk has more yards. Kirk has had seasons of 1100 and over 900 yards, while Brown’s best two seasons he’s had 1008 and 769 yards. Kirk averages more yards per catch.

Hollywood Brown (WR) Stats, News, Rumors, Bio, Video - Kansas City Chiefs

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Christian Kirk (WR) Stats, News, Rumors, Bio, Video - Jacksonville Jaguars

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Kirk is also healthier. And guess what… I wouldn’t have signed Kirk to that ridiculous contract and I bet if Jacksonville could get a do over right now, they wouldn’t either.

Who was Brown's QB his first couple of years & who was Kirk's? Big difference there.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Who was Brown's QB his first couple of years & who was Kirk's? Big difference there.

Brown’s QB was the MVP of the league. Who now that he FINALLY has more weapons than his TE, is lighting up the stat sheet. Kirk’s first couple years was Washed Sam Bradford, Josh Rosen and rookie Kyler Murray. Not a big difference at all and could be argued worse.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Brown has had Lamar Jackson passing for him the majority of his career, no receiver looks great when he is the guy passing to them.

Last year he started out on fire with Kyler - that is the real player. The stats just don't tell the whole story, Brown has better hands and gets more open than kirk.

EVERY STAT tells the story. And for as “on fire” in five or six games last year, it made ZERO impact on a woeful offense. So I guess you’re right there… stats don’t tell the story.

And even if that ONE stretch of Hollywood’s career is his ACTUAL career… he’s still averaging LESS YPC versus Kirk’s entire careeer YPC 12.4 v. Hollywood’s 12.3.

They’re the same guy… at best. None of us wanted to resign Kirk at 20 million. The reasons why we’d do so for essentially his carbon copy is beyond me.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Brown’s QB was the MVP of the league. Kirk’s first couple years was Washed Sam Bradford, Josh Rosen and rookie Kyler Murray. Not a big difference at all and could be argued worse.

Eh I don't think Lamar was getting MVPs based on his passing ability, and if you look at film of how Greg Roman used Brown, it was laughable.

My opinion: I think Brown and Kirk are about comparable. I thought Brown was a bit over drafted, and Kirk was just about right. They have very similar ability level, not stats, but can play like one every few games.

 

[Krangodnzr]

EVERY STAT tells the story. And for as “on fire” in five games last year, it made ZERO impact on a woeful offense. So I guess you’re right there… stats don’t tell the story.

This is a deranged argument. That's like pointing out how CMC played on those Carolina teams and saying he made zero impact because they weren't winning.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I don't think he's getting traded. But there are only a handful of ways that you can quantify the value of a player -- what you'd trade him for and what you'd pay to keep him.

The Tennenbaum quote is really about how you build a roster. You don't want to build it around expensive free agents whom you don't really know when you're bringing them into your building. You want your top-paid guys to be home-grown and part of your culture.

I think you'd look around the league and find that the top-paid guys in most groups are home-grown or been around for a long time. Good players aren't allowed to leave in their prime in good franchses.

I agree with the idea of paying homegrown talent, and using FA as a supplement.

 

[BritCard]

For what? Haven't we learned from the first four games that it's fun to kind of compete? Do we need to have 100% galaxy-brained thinking all the time?

I'd trade Hollywood for a 2025 second or a 2024 third (I guess).



I dunno. We have four-plus years of data on Hollywood Brown to evaluate him. His price tag will only go up as the season goes along.

I do think we shouldn't leave Rondale out of this conversation. If Michael Wilson shows he can stay healthy for 14+ games and Rondale can as well, it really relieves the pressure on keeping Hollywood Brown.

Here's the other thing, though: Mike Tannenbaum was on Kevin Clark's podcast last week. He said the biggest mistake he made was bringing in a free agent and making him the highest-paid guy in the room. It just upset the chemistry of the group.

Keeping Hollywood or signing an FA for similar money someone in the room is getting paid. Bring in future HOF guy like Evans isn't going to upset the room. That's a guy those young receivers are going to look up to and learn from.

I don't think Hollywood's price is changing, his agent has a number in mind already, and the team need to figure out both what Wilson is and how Brown can work in this offense. They aren't bothered about what he did before in someone else's scheme.

My take is that we throw the ball outside the hashes quite a lot and expect receivers to run block, and that Brown isn't necessarily the best at either of those. But also, he has made some nice plays so far and has been very reliable, and is still growing in this offense. So we will see.

 

[BritCard]

Diontae Johnson is getting $18.35m a year and that deals a year old. Kirk getting a little less. Both similar ages. Both similar "Not the guy, but a good player" vibes.

I think that + cap increase is Brown's floor is he stays healthy. It just is, anything else is living in the past.

 

[Chopper0080]

Diontae Johnson is getting $18.35m a year and that deals a year old. Kirk getting a little less. Both similar ages. Both similar "Not the guy, but a good player" vibes.

I think that + cap increase is Brown's floor is he stays healthy. It just is, anything else is living in the past.

Agreed. And Brown is exactly the type of player I don't want to pay market value and years to. I don't want small, limited players on 18+ mil deals. Hell, I might take a 4th from Carolina if they threw in Jaycee Horn. Maybe the injury bugs finally leaves him. I would rather take that gamble vs paying Brown for 4 years or more.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Diontae Johnson is getting $18.35m a year and that deals a year old. Kirk getting a little less. Both similar ages. Both similar "Not the guy, but a good player" vibes.

I think that + cap increase is Brown's floor is he stays healthy. It just is, anything else is living in the past.

Yeah I think Brown is worth around $20 mil. The top guys are going to be getting over $30 mil., so don't be shocked if Hollywood ends up getting more than the $20 mil.

It's the same sticker shock of Christian Kirk.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Agreed. And Brown is exactly the type of player I don't want to pay market value and years to. I don't want small, limited players on 18+ mil deals. Hell, I might take a 4th from Carolina if they threw in Jaycee Horn. Maybe the injury bugs finally leaves him. I would rather take that gamble vs paying Brown for 4 years or more.

Eh I'd pay Brown with a front loader deal that makes it easy to get out of if he underperforms.

Let's say the Cardinals use a high first on a receiver, you'd still be able to pay Brown and it wouldn't be too painful.

 

[Cheesebeef]

This is a deranged argument. That's like pointing out how CMC played on those Carolina teams and saying he made zero impact because they weren't winning.

Right… except he was literally LEADING THE LEAGUE in those categories, pretty much winning whatever games they did win singlehandedly.

Hollywood is the 32nd ranked WR and did next to nothing to elevate the team to any team wins.

Deranged. Lol… the people who were defending not spending 8 million per on a good young corner because they don’t want to kill the cap are now all in favor of spending 20 million on an okay #2. Even more deranged is the fact that those same people didn’t want to pay Brown’s carbon copy WR 20 million two years ago.

And what will be even more deranged is watching those who support paying Hollywood 20 million per right now completely flip their opinions if the Cardinals decide not to spend that money, supporting whatever the Cards decide to do, as usual.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Eh I'd pay Brown with a front loader deal that makes it easy to get out of if he underperforms.

Let's say the Cardinals use a high first on a receiver, you'd still be able to pay Brown and it wouldn't be too painful.

I look forward to you trashing Brown if he doesn’t resign here after propping him up, same way you did Murphy, Allen… and well, any player the Cardinals tell you is no longer worthy of a contract.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Agreed. And Brown is exactly the type of player I don't want to pay market value and years to. I don't want small, limited players on 18+ mil deals. Hell, I might take a 4th from Carolina if they threw in Jaycee Horn. Maybe the injury bugs finally leaves him. I would rather take that gamble vs paying Brown for 4 years or more.

Same.

 

[kerouac9]

I look forward to you trashing Brown if he doesn’t resign here after propping him up, same way you did Murphy, Allen… and well, any player the Cardinals tell you is no longer worthy of a contract.

Remember when Krang was comparing Allen favorably to Quinnen Williams?

Seems like only 11 months ago.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Remember when Krang was comparing Allen favorably to Quinnen Williams?

Seems like only 11 months ago.

The “deranged” comments always crack me up.

 

[daves]

They’re the same guy… at best. None of us wanted to resign Kirk at 20 million. The reasons why we’d do so for essentially his carbon copy is beyond me.

Not arguing that the team should or shouldn't do it... but in fairness, the salary cap and the WR market have increased hugely since then. Kirk's contract was shockingly large at the time and probably still even now a bit more than most teams would be willing to pay him. But now Kirk has the 15th highest WR salary, and in another year it will be well into the lower half of the top 32 WR contracts.

Every high-end free agent gets overpaid at the beginning of his contract - either by his original team, or another. (Many remain overpaid throughout their contracts.)

 

[Cheesebeef]

Not arguing that the team should or shouldn't do it... but in fairness, the salary cap and the WR market have increased hugely since then. Kirk's contract was shockingly large at the time and probably still even now a bit more than most teams would be willing to pay him. But now Kirk has the 15th highest WR salary, and in another year it will be well into the lower half of the top 32 WR contracts.

Every high-end free agent gets overpaid at the beginning of his contract - either by his original team, or another. (Many remain overpaid throughout their contracts.)

That’s just it. A guy who’s only cracked had more than 768 yards receiving ONCE in his career isn’t a high-end free agent, IMO.

And teams that treat him as such will regret paying it.

But even if that WAS market value for a Hollywood Brown, it still wouldn’t explain the complete 180 by posters here who want to waste that money there but railed against signing Allen and Murphy even though BOTH got BELOW what those posters said they would and ended up with reasonable deals when all was said and done.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Right… except he was literally LEADING THE LEAGUE in those categories, pretty much winning whatever games they did win singlehandedly.

It's still a real dumb argument. Yeah that Devin Booker real sucked the Suns didn't win.

Hollywood is the 32nd ranked WR and did next to nothing to elevate the team to any team wins.

Says who? Just like any receiver he's part of the equation.

Deranged. Lol… the people who were defending not spending 8 million per on a good young corner because they don’t want to kill the cap are now all in favor of spending 20 million on an okay #2. Even more deranged is the fact that those same people didn’t want to pay Brown’s carbon copy WR 20 million two years ago.

Murphy has a 41 PFF Rating. He gave up 180 yards receiving a few weeks ago. We were right on Murphy so far. Spending money on replacement level players is very deranged indeed.

I didn't want to spend on Kirk because the Cardinals didn't have the money. Circumstances change. Context matters.

And what will be even more deranged is watching those who support paying Hollywood 20 million per right now compl?etely flip their opinions if the Cardinals decide not to spend that money, supporting whatever the Cards decide to do, as usual.

That is what I would do. That doesn't mean that an expert (Monti) won't have a different plan.

 

[daves]

railed against signing Allen and Murphy

Maybe I missed it, but I don't recall anyone railing against signing them. I think it was more a matter of understanding why the team didn't sign them, trusting the judgment of (or at least bring willing to give the benefit of the doubt to) the new FO, and not being mad about it.

Whereas, I do recall some people railing against the fact that the team didn't sign those two. And then some of the people in the first category argued with the people in the second, because, ASFN!

But was anyone really arguing vehemently before free agency that Allen and Murphy should NOT be re-signed?

 

[ajcardfan]

I don't follow the reasoning that if we don't trade him we then have to sign him as free agent. Why? We all like Dobbs now and want to see what Kyler does in the same offense with the same tools. Dobbs appears to really trust Brown and he is the main target along with Ertz. No, I don't want to "evaluate Moore or Dortch" with more snaps because this is a football season not training camp. It's not fair to the QB room to weaken the WR corps. Nothing wrong with playing out the string with him and seeing what's up at the end of the season.

 

[oaken1]

I don't follow the reasoning that if we don't trade him we then have to sign him as free agent. Why? We all like Dobbs now and want to see what Kyler does in the same offense with the same tools. Dobbs appears to really trust Brown and he is the main target along with Ertz. No, I don't want to "evaluate Moore or Dortch" with more snaps because this is a football season not training camp. It's not fair to the QB room to weaken the WR corps. Nothing wrong with playing out the string with him and seeing what's up at the end of the season.

Agree. The only drawback is... if we spend as prolifically in free agency as some are hoping then we won't get a comp pick for Brown if he walks.

It's probably worth the comp pick to get a fair evaluation on kyler.

Also, we already have 6 picks in the first three rounds... champagne problems I know,... but if all six work out we won't have the cap space to sign them all anyway when their rookie deals are up.