Where's Emmitt?

[AZCB34]

I'll believe Wylie's success when I see it. If he had done such a great job in Chicago, why did the Bears feel the need to sign three free agents along the offensive line this offseason? Chicago finished 23rd in the NFL in sacks allowed last season (one less than the Arizona Cardinals), and 18th in rushing YPG, and produced an 4.0 YPC average.

I wish this group the best, and am not certain that it can get much worse, but to say that Wylie can turn this group dramatically around, or that he's the same caliber of coach as, say, Alex Gibbs or the OL coach for the Giants the past couple seasons doesn't seem to carry a lot of evidence.

They had to sign new players on the OL due to decimating injuries. Marc Columbo was drafted a coule years ago to be their T and he may never play again. Villarial left via FA so that position had to be dealt with as well.

For the past two years he took a pathwork OL (massively patch-worked) and made it work...maybe not to your satisfaction but had you seen their games, I believe you would have been impressed. In 2001, when the Bears had their best year recently, the OL gave up 9 sacks out of 17 total (how many of the sacks last year were due to OL errors?) and that was the year the OL was completely healthy. As a unit, I believe the Cards have better talent on the OL than the 2001 Bears did and look at the results.

Never compared the guy to anyone else.

Anyways, you are right. Wylie will get nothing out this group. The improvement will be minor.

 

[Lex]

Hold on a minute there Kerouac the Shipp basher.

Marcell Shipp has been in the league 3 years. The first year, Kerouac's boy Thomas Jones was the starter, and Shipp got zero carries. His second year, TJ was again the starter, and all Marcell got was 12.5 carries/game, in 15 games, plus 6 touchdowns.

His third year, (last year) Emmitt Smith was the starter, all Marcell got was 14.25 carries/game in 16 games. He got zero touchdowns averaging more carries than the year before, when he got 6 TD's.

Through all this adversity, Shipp still carries a 4.0 yards/game average.

If Shipp averages 18-25 carries/game like Kerouac contends he needs, @ 4.0/carry, his career average, that would be 72-100 yards/game, or 1152-1600 yds in a 16 game season.

A 1600 yard back is hardly a "good #2 running back," and is certainly worth $2 million per season.

In the case of Marcell Shipp, any discussion needs to be backed up with facts and true observations.

 

[kerouac9]

Anyways, you are right. Wylie will get nothing out this group. The improvement will be minor.

Now, I didn't say that. Honestly, I hope that they do good things. That being said, I'm not hearing reports about O-line improvement or attention that we've been hearing about Deke's work with the Defensive line. All we've heard is about position changes and players getting demoted. I know that I, for one, am tired of depending on the O-line playing to it's potential every season. Now I'm just hoping for some improvement. They should get better.

In the case of Marcell Shipp, any discussion needs to be backed up with facts and true observations.

Funny, Lex. It sure looks like that's exactly what I did. If I really wanted to be misleading about Marcel's performance, I'd just cite the Cards' winning percentage with Marcel as a starter versus anyone else over the past two seasons. Or that Marcel's YPC average is inflated by the gaudy numbers that he put up in 2003 against pass-protecting fronts in blowouts (for example, the 16-carry, 185-yard game against the Raiders in which he averaged 8.5 YPC in a 41-20 loss) or the gaudy 1.9 YPC Marcel notched against the worst run defense in the NFL in 2002 in the KC Chiefs.

If you have to, keep gravy-training that 4.4 ypc season in 2002, and ignore the sad 3.6 season he has last year. My contention has always been that Marcel needs 18-25 carries a game to be productive, but doesn't have the durability to sustain that workload over a 16-game schedule. The 2004 season under Dennis Green will bear that out. That being said, though, it's not a great endorsement that Green was all ready to jump on Kevin Jones at the top of the second round had he slipped just a couple more places.

 

[Jim O]

Vikesfan's Green-blowing

 

[nidan]

That being said, I'm not hearing reports about O-line improvement or attention that we've been hearing about Deke's work with the Defensive line.

Part of that is because the differnce in the DL coaching is so dramatic. I do plan to do some more coverage of the OL at my next opportunity.

 

[Lex]

Kerouac-

But Marcell DOES average 4 yards per carry over his career, doesn't he?

And since he DOES average 4 yards per carry, he WOULD tally 100 yards per game with your 25 carry formula WOULDN'T HE?

"Gravy training" 4.4 yards per carry in in 2002? (that's a little more than 12 inches over 4 yards per carry)

Then "ignoring" 3.6 yards per carry in 2003? (that's a little more than 12 inches under 4 yards per carry)

Frankly, I don't know if you wanted to be misleading or not, but you were misleading weren't you?

 

[kerouac9]

Kerouac-

But Marcell DOES average 4 yards per carry over his career, doesn't he?

And since he DOES average 4 yards per carry, he WOULD tally 100 yards per game with your 25 carry formula WOULDN'T HE?

"Gravy training" 4.4 yards per carry in in 2002? (that's a little more than 12 inches over 4 yards per carry)

Then "ignoring" 3.6 yards per carry in 2003? (that's a little more than 12 inches under 4 yards per carry)

Frankly, I don't know if you wanted to be misleading or not, but you were misleading weren't you?

Marcel has averaged 4 YPC over his carrer, but the trend path is not a positive one, is it? Losing almost an entire yard per carry when you get more carries can't be a positive indicator, can it?

Were my reprintings of Marcel's 2004 stats (the last season that he played football) misleading, somehow? Would posting Jerry Rice's 1996 stats and using that as an indicator of how he might perform in 2004 be misleading, as opposed to looking at his 2003 stats for projection purposes?

 

[Lex]

Statistics themselves can't be misleading, it's the interpretation of statistics that can become misleading.

Like "trend path."

And "gravy training" 4.4 ypc, and "ignoring" 3.6 ypc. when discussing a player averaging 4 ypc. That's how you average 4 ypc.

For instance: you claim Shipp lost almost an entire yard per carry last season with more carries.

I would say Shipp's career average went from 4.4 ypc in his first year, to 4.0 in his second year. Not much change, a little over a FOOT, and I'll take 4 ypc from a guy with two years carrying the ball, with no starts, any day.

How many running backs have a 4 ypc career average?

 

[kerouac9]

Statistics themselves can't be misleading, it's the interpretation of statistics that can become misleading.

Like "trend path."

And "gravy training" 4.4 ypc, and "ignoring" 3.6 ypc. when discussing a player averaging 4 ypc. That's how you average 4 ypc.

For instance: you claim Shipp lost almost an entire yard per carry last season with more carries.

I would say Shipp's career average went from 4.4 ypc in his first year, to 4.0 in his second year. Not much change, a little over a FOOT, and I'll take 4 ypc from a guy with two years carrying the ball, with no starts, any day.

How many running backs have a 4 ypc career average?

Over two seasons? I'd bet plenty. Warrick Dunn has a career YPC of 4.1, and averaged 5.4 ypc last season. In the past two years with the Falcons, he's averaged a gaudy 4.4 YPC. Travis Henry has a career 4.1, as well, and his average went up following his first season as a starter. Michael Bennett has a career 4.7 YPC average. Troy-Freaking-Hambrick has a 4.0 carrer YPC average. Napoleon Kaufman has a 4.9 YPC average. Maybe we should bring him in.

Now who's being misleading?

 

[azdad1978]

as Vikesfan's Green-blowing

 

[Lex]

Here you go. Curtis Martin, has a 4.0 ypc average in his career.

His worst year, he averaged 3.5 ypc.

His best year, he averaged 4.5 ypc.

That's just like Shipp, and even if you only used Martin's worst and best years, it's 4.0 ypc, just like Shipp.

So I could say Marcel Shipp is on the same trend path as Curtis Martin.

 

[MaoTosiFanClub]

I actually agree with that. I think that Marcel Shipp can be the best #2 running back in the league since Stacey Mack with the Jaguars. Marcel is entering the second year of a four-year, $8 million dollar contract extension that he signed in December of 2002, right? $2 million-plus per season is a lot to pay a backup running back, but once Smith is off the roster, it might end up a pretty good bargain. I just don't really expect him to be in Cardinal Red after 2006, or whenever his contract runs out.

Actually Shipp will make a little less than $2 million for the rest of his current contract which runs through 2006 (four years @ 1.425 million per and a $1.725 S.B.). Personally I think if you're going to spend money on a backup at one position, it should be running back. Having another runner on your roster that can not only be a serviceable spot starter, but also a change-of-pace runner to complement and take the pressure and heavy workload off of the starter, as well as play the occasional special teams is worth $2 million per season. Look at the Patriots or the Falcons. Kevin Faulk, Corey Dillon, Warrick Dunn, and T.J. Duckett are earning a good chunk of change and sharing the workload. Right now, Marcel fits the mold of a RB like Kevin Faulk and if he continues to perform as such, his paychecks will be well earned in my book.

 

[kerouac9]

So I could say Marcel Shipp is on the same trend path as Curtis Martin.

You know how many TDs Curtis Martin scored in his first two seasons as a starter? 28. 14 apiece. He's never failed to notch a 1000 yard rushing season, nor a sub-225 yards in receptions. Oh, and he's missed zero games in the past five seasons, and one in the last six.

Curtis Martin and Marcel Shipp? Look like the same player to me.

Oh, and in the past three seasons, Curtis Martin has averaged 4.3 YPC.

This from the guy who's accusing me of posting misleading information.

 

[Cheesebeef]

So I could say Marcel Shipp is on the same trend path as Curtis Martin.

you could - but both you and I know you'd be wrong. Shipp would be a GREAT backup - even at 2 million - and he's a decent starting back - this is his year to prove he can not only get back in the endzone - 9 TDs in 2002 - but also stay healthy and effective over the course of the season - but something tells me that by the time we're in the new stadium - we're gonna have a new starter at RB.

 

[kerouac9]

Actually Shipp will make a little less than $2 million for the rest of his current contract which runs through 2006 (four years @ 1.425 million per and a $1.725 S.B.). Personally I think if you're going to spend money on a backup at one position, it should be running back. Having another runner on your roster that can not only be a serviceable spot starter, but also a change-of-pace runner to complement and take the pressure and heavy workload off of the starter, as well as play the occasional special teams is worth $2 million per season. Look at the Patriots or the Falcons. Kevin Faulk, Corey Dillon, Warrick Dunn, and T.J. Duckett are earning a good chunk of change and sharing the workload. Right now, Marcel fits the mold of a RB like Kevin Faulk and if he continues to perform as such, his paychecks will be well earned in my book.

I don't know. Kevin Faulk is more of a reciever/sparkplug. Like Warrick Dunn is in Atlanta. I like you're original analogy of Moe Williams with the Vikings. A less successful comparison would be Tiki Barber (fast, slasher, #1) and Ron Dayne (big, plugger, goal line--were he good). Personally, I like the comparison of Fred Taylor and Stacey Mack the most. I think that a Fred Taylor-type back would be best in Denny's offense (see Michael Bennett or Robert Smith--or Kevin Jones), and then have a guy like Shipp/Mack who can step in and be a starter for a handful of games and be successful, but you don't really want starting for 16 games.

Marcel Shipp has a place on this team in 2005, but I don't think that he's "the answer" at this position. I do agree that if you have a high-dollar backup, it best be at runningback. As long as he can do the job. That's one of the problems that I have with Emmitt Smith being on the roster still.

 

[Lex]

Kerouac-

So when you're faced with facts about comparisons in yards per carry, you change the parameters of the conversation to include touchdowns?

Denile is not a river in Egypt.

Let's face it: Curtis Martin and Marcel Shipp each have a 4.0 ypc career average. This is the only comparison that's fair, for if Curtis Martin has better numbers in any other catagory than Marcel does, the ONLY reason can be, that Curtis Martin got more carries. Not Marcel's fault.

Oh by the way, we've yet to see how many touchdowns Marcel gets in HIS first two years as a starter.

 

[kerouac9]

Kerouac-

So when you're faced with facts about comparisons in yards per carry, you change the parameters of the conversation to include touchdowns?

Denile is not a river in Egypt.

Let's face it: Curtis Martin and Marcel Shipp each have a 4.0 ypc career average. This is the only comparison that's fair, for if Curtis Martin has better numbers in any other catagory than Marcel does, the ONLY reason can be, that Curtis Martin got more carries. Not Marcel's fault.

Oh by the way, we've yet to see how many touchdowns Marcel gets in HIS first two years as a starter.

Hey, you look at Marcel Shipp and his 0 TDs last season, and you see Curtis Martin, 4.0 YPC career. I look at him, and I see Napoleon Kaufman, 4.0 YPC career. Based on your one sole means of comparison, all three players are exactly the same. And Troy Hambrick, as well. All the same performance.

Oh, and Curtis Martin hasn't missed a game in five years. Marcel's gotten banged up halfway between the last two seasons. Of part-time play. Anyway, same player(s), right?

Right?

 

[kerouac9]

Oh by the way, we've yet to see how many touchdowns Marcel gets in HIS first two years as a starter.

Oh, and by the way, let's hope that Marcel Shipp makes it to two years as a starter.

 

[Redheart]

Last-word Charlies

 

[Lex]

No Kerouac, not the same players.

The same "trend path."

Remember trend path?

 

[kerouac9]

No Kerouac, not the same players.

The same "trend path."

Remember trend path?

Right, and C. Martin's trend path is better than Marcel's:

Oh, and in the past three seasons, Curtis Martin has averaged 4.3 YPC.

That's better than his career average. Marcel's trend path is a half-yard shorter last season than his career average. That's a NEGATIVE trend. Martin apparently only gets better with age. Shipp...?

 

[Lex]

Ha ha ha.

You know, when someone uses "the past three years," when we're talking about Shipp's two years, it deserves a "look up."

Curtis Martin's first two years, 4.0 ypc, then 3.6 ypc. He averaged 3.8 ypc his first two years, so Marcel's ypc (4.0) is better than Martin's. His trend path is about the same.

Curtis Martins LAST three years, 4.5-4.2-4.0 is good, albeit trend pathing down, and his last TWO years, he's at 4.1 ypc, 3 inches more per carry than his career average.

So I guess you're correct, Curtis Martin IS three inches per carry better than Marcel Shipp over the last two years. What's that ...a little under 2 yards per game?

 

[kerouac9]

Ha ha ha.

You know, when someone uses "the past three years," when we're talking about Shipp's two years, it deserves a "look up."

Curtis Martin's first two years, 4.0 ypc, then 3.6 ypc. He averaged 3.8 ypc his first two years, so Marcel's ypc (4.0) is better than Martin's. His trend path is about the same.

Curtis Martins LAST three years, 4.5-4.2-4.0 is good, albeit trend pathing down, and his last TWO years, he's at 4.1 ypc, 3 inches more per carry than his career average.

So I guess you're correct, Curtis Martin IS three inches per carry better than Marcel Shipp over the last two years. What's that ...a little under 2 yards per game?

Again, if you think that Marcel Shipp compares favorably to a first-ballot hall of famer like Curtis Martin, but ignore lesser players that conform to your rubric (Kaufman, Hambrick), that's your deal. But it's a joke, as cheese so aptly stated. No one is ever going to confuse Curtis Martin with Marcel Shipp. Ever.

 

[jerryp]

Yards mean nothing, efficiency means everything.

Martin is significantly ahead of Shipp, who is slightly ahead of Smith (for 2003).

 

[Lex]

Curtis Martin and Marcel Shipp look nothing like each other, so no, people will probable not confuse the two. Kerouac, go back to post #71 in this thread, and you'll see what we were talking about.

Jerryp-

Nice stat page. According to that, Onterrio Smith is ranked #10.
Marcel Shipp is #43.
Ricky Williams #47.

I could argue about stats all day long, or should I say, interpretation of statistics. It's in the eye of the beholder.