2012 Draft prospects

[Sun Zel]

I would really like the suns to draft Tyler Zeller, Bradley Beal, or John Henson.

 

[slinslin]

Yuck

John Henson is a STIFF. The guy can't shoot 50% from the freethrow line. His best case is an Andris Biedrins version at PF. His upside is way too small to justify picking him when you just picked Morris the year before.

Leave Tyler Zeller to teams that have more pieces in place and only need a center and will reach for one because based on pure talent there are 15 players definitely better. We don't need to draft Tyler Zeller hoping he will be the next Chris Kaman.

If we draft one of those 2 guys next season will be even worse than this.

 

[jandaman]

I would like to see the Suns getting a high 2012 pick without giving up Gortat.

As per Babby's comments about having the cap space to add flexibility to absorb bad contracts and in turn obtaining lottery picks....

These are the possible teams... (mind you the contracts are 1 less year because this is end of season or trade deadline trades which means most of this year's salary is paid off)

KINGS
- John Salmons (3 years at 8 Million) + Kings 2012 Pick (4 ~ 6) for TPE (from Suns)
- Suns Amnesty Childress (3 years at 7 Million).

Suns impact: The offset is +1 Million to the Suns salary, but obtains a high lottery pick.

Possibility of occuring: Pretty high, Kings have a solid youth core of Cousins, Evans, Fredette, Thornton and a few young big men expiring their rookie contracts. What they need is cap space to sign a veteran star to help lead their talented but leaderless core. 4/10 chance it happens.

When? Draft day trade most likely, just for Kings to see who is available with their pick. Maybe even do a deal for Suns to pick a player Suns want and make the trade on the day.




PISTONS
- Ben Gordon (2 years 11 million a year) + Charlie Villanueva (2 years 7 million a year) + 2012 Pistons Pick ( 1~5 )
- Suns amnesty Childress (3 years at 7 million a year)

Suns impact: Childress and Villanueva cancels out, Gordon cancels out Nash's expiring 11 Million.
Nash may even re-sign for MLE after this trade goes down, Hill for the minimum.
Suns can use Gordon and Villanueva ironically and the additional pick is gold.....

Possibility of occuring: If Pistons get No.1, I dont think they will trade it, as they can shop that for a mega star trade deal somewhere or even pair Davis with Monroe, If its No.2, they might fall in love with Michael Kidd Gilchrist and use that on him.
I can definitely see them trading No.3, assuming Drummond doesnt enter the draft.
They like Monroe and only Anthony Davis would be their real coveted player in this draft as they compliment each other. But they also have a few young players in Daye, Stuckey, Jerebko and Knight with Monroe. So they can use the cap space created by making a bid for a star during the 2012-2013 season or sign one in 2013.


The other alternative is for Suns to just absorb one of Gordon or Villanueva and Pistons 2012 Pick.
This case, Suns will send their 2012 pick, assuming it is 5-6 places lower than Pistons.
Again, Suns can actually use Gordon at the 2, but dont let Pistons know that, the key is to make this look like a 100% salary dump. If its Villanueva, Suns will have to trade Frye later on as both play similarly.

Again depending on where Pistons fall... Pick 3 and lower (assuming Drummond doesnt enter), the chances of this trade approaches 5/10. No.1? or No.2?, fogeddaboutit.



BOBCATS
Bobcats are one of the favourites for No.1 pick, these guys are beyond terrible.
They also have big chunks of contracts that hampering them from making a splash.
Also not sure how high they are on Biyombo and Walker.

In my opinion, Jordan and Cho are tanking for a wing man or an all out scorer in the draft.
Maybe, Perry Jones, Quincy Miller, Michael Kidd Gilchrist, Harrison Barnes type.

Now I believe these players are available between pick 3 to 8.
They dont necessarily need No.1 unless Drummond is entering the draft.
The Bobcats have defensive big men galore, I dont think they covet Davis very much. They need a flat out scorer or star potential. They may even go outside the draft to get this scorer.... but they need cap space first.


Suns can relieve them of Tyrus Thomas (3 years and 7 million per year) as well as Magette (1 year and 9 million).

They want the cap space, but the same time they want a pick back also.

A possible situation.
Suns end up with Pick 8 and Bobcats end up with Pick 1. Both teams GMs have an under the table trade assuming player Bobcats want is available by pick 8th and Bobcats will pick for Suns.

At this point, Bobcats will pick best available player which will be Anthony Davis, I think Suns is IN LOVE with Davis... he is definitely a defensive power house they covet to start off the new core of defensive minded Suns.

Suns pick Perry Jones at 8th, they then do a draft day trade of.

Perry Jones + 2013 Top 10 protected for Anthony Davis + Magette + Thomas.

The Bobcats now have their SF/PF Scorer (potential), have a lot of cap space also. Bobcats can now target a star during the season or the next off-season.

WIZARDS
- Blatche (3 years 6.5 Million per year) + 2012 Pick ~1~5 for TPE OR + Suns 2012 First pick
- Suns amnesty Childress (3 years 7 million)

Suns Impact: Blatche offsets Childress's contract.... same scenario, but Blatche can actually be useful if he isnt being a nut job or cancerous at the back.

Possibility of occuring: Depends again, if Wizards get No.1 or No2.... ZERO% this happens. But if they fall at No.4; this can definitely pick up steam at draft day.
I can imagine them going savin cap space for Harden in 2013, getting rid of Blatche also allows them to move Singleton or Vesely at the PF, making them an uptempo team.
Suns will use the acquired pick and their own to trade into the top 2, assuming they know MKG and Davis will be the top 2 picks... assuming this happens before the draft begins... maybe half hour before.
But if they dont trade before Pick 1 has been made (A.Davis), I think Wizards will hold the pick until they see who is available at No.4.
Wizards are not exactly old, so they might think signing a veteran is better than a rookie.... OJ Mayo comes to mind as a player they may sign to a pretty big contract in which Grizzlies wont match.





BUCKS
- Drew Gooden (3 years 6.5 Million) + 2012 Pick (~ 5 ~ 8) for TPE
- Suns amnesty Childress (3 years 7 million per year)

Suns Impact: Childress's cancels our Gooden's incoming.

Probability of occuring: This is highly likely if they want to offer Beasley a contract ranging from 7-10 Million a year, in which they may even request Suns to take another contract along with Gooden. Beno Udrih's contract looks ugly too (1 more year at 7 million).

The trades above is assuming the Suns are going strong for this upcomming draft.

Ahem, you should put the link for the original post

Original Post link

I really don't see any of these teams trading away a high draft pick just to dump a contract. Teams generally only go that route in order to avoid paying LT (see Suns) but none of those teams are anywhere near LT territory. No team is going to give up a lottery pick, especially not a top 5 pick in a deep draft, just to create some cap space or to unload a bad contract.

1. As you said, due to the depth of this draft, some teams may predict that their target player is available in the range of 8-12.... so by trading down a few slots they get to dump salary.


2. KINGS have a bunch of big men on rookie contracts expiring, in addition they have 4-5 really young guys.
Might be worth it to NOT draft another rookie, use cap space to re-sign some of the expirings.

3. Some teams might want to make a run to signing some of the FAs, like Mayo, Beasley, B.Lopez, K.Humpries etc.

 

[Griffin]

1. As you said, due to the depth of this draft, some teams may predict that their target player is available in the range of 8-12.... so by trading down a few slots they get to dump salary.

Trading down a few spots, maybe. The first few scenarios above didn't have the Suns trading away their pick.

But I doubt the Suns would be able to move up from late lottery to #1 just by absorbing contracts and throwing in a future pick. That's more than a few spots. You'd think Anthony Davis would command more than that and if he's made available, teams with better assets will offer much more than that.

 

[jandaman]

Trading down a few spots, maybe. The first few scenarios above didn't have the Suns trading away their pick.

But I doubt the Suns would be able to move up from late lottery to #1 just by absorbing contracts and throwing in a future pick. That's more than a few spots. You'd think Anthony Davis would command more than that and if he's made available, teams with better assets will offer much more than that.

I dont have high hopes for a #1 being traded as well... unless a top 5 NBA player in his peak is involved.

But Pick #3 to #5... its possible.... Pick 5-12 have same tier type of talent Pick 3-5 isnt that much better either... MKG and A.Davis are the priced rookies in this draft and MKG isnt even unanimous top 3.... depends on the team highly.

 

[slinslin]

Nobody commented on Rivers game last night? I was pimping him for some time anyway but yesterday was clearly impressive.

Sign me up for Rivers if Drummond, Davis, Jones, Gilchrist are off the board.



29 points 5 rebounds 2 assists against UNC plus the game winner. Oh yeah he is averaging 15/3/2 for the season as a freshman shooting 45+%FG and 40+%3s.

 

[hcsilla]

I would like to see the Suns getting a high 2012 pick without giving up Gortat.

As per Babby's comments about having the cap space to add flexibility to absorb bad contracts and in turn obtaining lottery picks....

These are the possible teams... (mind you the contracts are 1 less year because this is end of season or trade deadline trades which means most of this year's salary is paid off)

KINGS
- John Salmons (3 years at 8 Million) + Kings 2012 Pick (4 ~ 6) for TPE (from Suns)
- Suns Amnesty Childress (3 years at 7 Million).

Suns impact: The offset is +1 Million to the Suns salary, but obtains a high lottery pick.

Possibility of occuring: Pretty high, Kings have a solid youth core of Cousins, Evans, Fredette, Thornton and a few young big men expiring their rookie contracts. What they need is cap space to sign a veteran star to help lead their talented but leaderless core. 4/10 chance it happens.

When? Draft day trade most likely, just for Kings to see who is available with their pick. Maybe even do a deal for Suns to pick a player Suns want and make the trade on the day.

PISTONS
- Ben Gordon (2 years 11 million a year) + Charlie Villanueva (2 years 7 million a year) + 2012 Pistons Pick ( 1~5 )
- Suns amnesty Childress (3 years at 7 million a year)

Suns impact: Childress and Villanueva cancels out, Gordon cancels out Nash's expiring 11 Million.
Nash may even re-sign for MLE after this trade goes down, Hill for the minimum.
Suns can use Gordon and Villanueva ironically and the additional pick is gold.....

Possibility of occuring: If Pistons get No.1, I dont think they will trade it, as they can shop that for a mega star trade deal somewhere or even pair Davis with Monroe, If its No.2, they might fall in love with Michael Kidd Gilchrist and use that on him.
I can definitely see them trading No.3, assuming Drummond doesnt enter the draft.
They like Monroe and only Anthony Davis would be their real coveted player in this draft as they compliment each other. But they also have a few young players in Daye, Stuckey, Jerebko and Knight with Monroe. So they can use the cap space created by making a bid for a star during the 2012-2013 season or sign one in 2013.


The other alternative is for Suns to just absorb one of Gordon or Villanueva and Pistons 2012 Pick.
This case, Suns will send their 2012 pick, assuming it is 5-6 places lower than Pistons.
Again, Suns can actually use Gordon at the 2, but dont let Pistons know that, the key is to make this look like a 100% salary dump. If its Villanueva, Suns will have to trade Frye later on as both play similarly.

Again depending on where Pistons fall... Pick 3 and lower (assuming Drummond doesnt enter), the chances of this trade approaches 5/10. No.1? or No.2?, fogeddaboutit.

BOBCATS
Bobcats are one of the favourites for No.1 pick, these guys are beyond terrible.
They also have big chunks of contracts that hampering them from making a splash.
Also not sure how high they are on Biyombo and Walker.

In my opinion, Jordan and Cho are tanking for a wing man or an all out scorer in the draft.
Maybe, Perry Jones, Quincy Miller, Michael Kidd Gilchrist, Harrison Barnes type.

Now I believe these players are available between pick 3 to 8.
They dont necessarily need No.1 unless Drummond is entering the draft.
The Bobcats have defensive big men galore, I dont think they covet Davis very much. They need a flat out scorer or star potential. They may even go outside the draft to get this scorer.... but they need cap space first.


Suns can relieve them of Tyrus Thomas (3 years and 7 million per year) as well as Magette (1 year and 9 million).

They want the cap space, but the same time they want a pick back also.

A possible situation.
Suns end up with Pick 8 and Bobcats end up with Pick 1. Both teams GMs have an under the table trade assuming player Bobcats want is available by pick 8th and Bobcats will pick for Suns.

At this point, Bobcats will pick best available player which will be Anthony Davis, I think Suns is IN LOVE with Davis... he is definitely a defensive power house they covet to start off the new core of defensive minded Suns.

Suns pick Perry Jones at 8th, they then do a draft day trade of.

Perry Jones + 2013 Top 10 protected for Anthony Davis + Magette + Thomas.

The Bobcats now have their SF/PF Scorer (potential), have a lot of cap space also. Bobcats can now target a star during the season or the next off-season.

WIZARDS
- Blatche (3 years 6.5 Million per year) + 2012 Pick ~1~5 for TPE OR + Suns 2012 First pick
- Suns amnesty Childress (3 years 7 million)

Suns Impact: Blatche offsets Childress's contract.... same scenario, but Blatche can actually be useful if he isnt being a nut job or cancerous at the back.

Possibility of occuring: Depends again, if Wizards get No.1 or No2.... ZERO% this happens. But if they fall at No.4; this can definitely pick up steam at draft day.
I can imagine them going savin cap space for Harden in 2013, getting rid of Blatche also allows them to move Singleton or Vesely at the PF, making them an uptempo team.
Suns will use the acquired pick and their own to trade into the top 2, assuming they know MKG and Davis will be the top 2 picks... assuming this happens before the draft begins... maybe half hour before.
But if they dont trade before Pick 1 has been made (A.Davis), I think Wizards will hold the pick until they see who is available at No.4.
Wizards are not exactly old, so they might think signing a veteran is better than a rookie.... OJ Mayo comes to mind as a player they may sign to a pretty big contract in which Grizzlies wont match.

BUCKS
- Drew Gooden (3 years 6.5 Million) + 2012 Pick (~ 5 ~ 8) for TPE
- Suns amnesty Childress (3 years 7 million per year)

Suns Impact: Childress's cancels our Gooden's incoming.

Probability of occuring: This is highly likely if they want to offer Beasley a contract ranging from 7-10 Million a year, in which they may even request Suns to take another contract along with Gooden. Beno Udrih's contract looks ugly too (1 more year at 7 million).

The trades above is assuming the Suns are going strong for this upcomming draft.

I appreciate your effort but I do think that all above scenarios' probability is very low, at the best.

1st of all who are those star FA's whom they these team would target?
Problem is they are just 2nd tier very good players available like Eric Gordon and OJ Mayo who A. probably won't really solve above teams' lack of veteran leadership and go-to-player B. will be coveted by all the teams having cap space this summer and they are quite a lot of.

BTW, Suns have more cap space than majority of these teams only if we let Nash go.

SAC have everything but a good young core. They have two shoot-1st PG's, a big talented C with huge offground issues, an overpaid SG and some very bad contracts.
I do think that they need a good draftpick than anything else.

CHA have even less assets. Plus everyone needs and will pick Anthony Davis if possible. He is that special.
If CHA wants cap space all they have to do it is let DJ White and DJ Augustin go.

WAS already have a huge cap room (because of Lewis' 12 mil. buyout) and they don't have too much for the future except John Wall, a shoot-happy SG (who wants a big contract now), some F prospects and the stupidest frontcourt ever in the NBA. In other words: they will keep the pick.

MIL seems maybe the most realistic option but even being overpaid Gooden fills a hole at PF.

BTW, does anyone in the NBA wants to offer 7-10 mil. for Beasley? If yes, then Beasley may become quickly one of the worst contracts in the NBA.

Joe Dumars doesn't seem to have problems with handing-out big contracts to his players. After signing Villaneuva and Gordon for ridiculously big contracts he heavily overpaid Stuckey and Prince without even thinking twice.
It would be shocking if he now would turn around and want to reload some of his bad contracts.
If he does a move I think it will be more along packing their pick with one of their bad contracts like for example Gordon or Prince + DET 2012 pick for Monta Ellis.

 

[hcsilla]

A more realistic trade partner for us may be the Nets that need to shed some salary.

Right now they are some millions away from being able to offer a max. contract (when the cap doesn't raise next season which is likely) for both Deron Williams and Dwight Howard.

Let's assume they get #5 pick.

How about then a Farmar, Petro (both expires in 2013), #5 in 2012 for Morris deal?

They get enough cap room for their big 2 plus a young banger whose 3P-shooting fits very well to DH.

We get a solid backup PG who is an upgrade over Telfair plus a high lottery pick.

 

[jagu]

Morris for Farmar and Petro and a #5 ? Hell no. No guarantee the #5 will be any good player but Morris clearly looks like he will be a solid NBA player for a long time.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Morris clearly looks like he will be a solid NBA player for a long time.

A solid bench player. Meh. If he's anything more than your 7-8th best player, you're not a very good team.

 

[slinslin]

Morris for Farmar and Petro and a #5 ? Hell no. No guarantee the #5 will be any good player but Morris clearly looks like he will be a solid NBA player for a long time.

lol we would be so lucky if someone gave up a #5 pick for Morris.

Markieff will be a nice role player but that is not worth a high lottery pick ever.

 

[hcsilla]

lol we would be so lucky if someone gave up a #5 pick for Morris.

Markieff will be a nice role player but that is not worth a high lottery pick ever.

This is not only Morris for a #5. It's Morris + enough cap room for having both DH and Deron.

 

[slinslin]

This is not only Morris for a #5. It's Morris + enough cap room for having both DH and Deron.

I know but jagu suggested that we would not give up Morris for the #5 pick.

 

[jagu]

Why would DWill sign with the Suns? You must be out of your mind if he would want to come here. Super unlikely. Plus I don't really like attitude and honestly I'd prefer someone else even though he has talent.

Markieff

Rebounds? Yes
Can Score? Yes, perimeter and his post up game is pretty good too.
Plays good D? Yes, he already has the makings of a good defender.
Passes? Not bad. I like what I've seen

Why would you trade him away when the #5 pick is not guaranteed at all. He is only going to get better. Maybe not All-Star (unclear as of now) but a serviceable player for a very long long time.

 

[slinslin]

A #5 pick is worth three times as much as the player Markieff PROJECTS to be. That Markieff develops that way is no given either. Markieff is a role player in the NBA, a bench player. A #5 pick is worth much much much more than that.

 

[Mainstreet]

I would like to see the Suns getting a high 2012 pick without giving up Gortat.

As per Babby's comments about having the cap space to add flexibility to absorb bad contracts and in turn obtaining lottery picks....

I've never seen or heard these comments from Babby especially as a strategy. Do you have a link?

 

[hcsilla]

Why would DWill sign with the Suns? You must be out of your mind if he would want to come here. Super unlikely. Plus I don't really like attitude and honestly I'd prefer someone else even though he has talent.

This trade would help the Nets to be able to sign both Howard and Deron Williams.

 

[elindholm]

Markieff is a role player in the NBA, a bench player. A #5 pick is worth much much much more than that.

I'm not so sure. For every Dwayne Wade that you get at #5, there are a couple of Nikoloz Tskitishvilis.

Let's look at the last 30 players who were taken at #4-#6:

2002
Drew Gooden
Nikoloz Tskitishvili
Dajuan Wagner

2003
Chris Bosh
Dwayne Wade
Chris Kaman

2004
Shaun Livingston
Devin Harris
Josh Childress

2005
Chris Paul
Raymond Felton
Martell Webster

2006
Tyrus Thomas
Shelden Williams
Brandon Roy

2007
Mike Conley
Jeff Green
Yi Jianlian

2008
Russell Westbrook
Kevin Love
Danilo Gallinari

2009
Tyreke Evans
Ricky Rubio
Jonny Flynn

2010
Wesley Johnson
DeMarcus Cousins
Ekpe Udoh

2011
Tristan Thompson
Jonas Valanciunas
Jan Vesely

Just eyeballing the list, I'd say that Markieff Morris would rank somewhere in the middle of that pack. Some of the players are stars, but others never amounted to anything.

 

[jandaman]

I appreciate your effort but I do think that all above scenarios' probability is very low, at the best.

1st of all who are those star FA's whom they these team would target?
Problem is they are just 2nd tier very good players available like Eric Gordon and OJ Mayo who A. probably won't really solve above teams' lack of veteran leadership and go-to-player B. will be coveted by all the teams having cap space this summer and they are quite a lot of.

BTW, Suns have more cap space than majority of these teams only if we let Nash go.

SAC have everything but a good young core. They have two shoot-1st PG's, a big talented C with huge offground issues, an overpaid SG and some very bad contracts.
I do think that they need a good draftpick than anything else.

CHA have even less assets. Plus everyone needs and will pick Anthony Davis if possible. He is that special.
If CHA wants cap space all they have to do it is let DJ White and DJ Augustin go.

WAS already have a huge cap room (because of Lewis' 12 mil. buyout) and they don't have too much for the future except John Wall, a shoot-happy SG (who wants a big contract now), some F prospects and the stupidest frontcourt ever in the NBA. In other words: they will keep the pick.

MIL seems maybe the most realistic option but even being overpaid Gooden fills a hole at PF.

BTW, does anyone in the NBA wants to offer 7-10 mil. for Beasley? If yes, then Beasley may become quickly one of the worst contracts in the NBA.

Joe Dumars doesn't seem to have problems with handing-out big contracts to his players. After signing Villaneuva and Gordon for ridiculously big contracts he heavily overpaid Stuckey and Prince without even thinking twice.
It would be shocking if he now would turn around and want to reload some of his bad contracts.
If he does a move I think it will be more along packing their pick with one of their bad contracts like for example Gordon or Prince + DET 2012 pick for Monta Ellis.

its not his post, he got it from RealGM, he post there under the same ID as here.

another fan posted the that post.

 

[jandaman]

I think Suns can potentially get into the top 8, maybe pick 7... if they SWAP their pick and absorb a bad contract...

thats most realistic scenario... unless they TANK the rest of the season and get into top 5 themselves.

 

[slinslin]

I'm not so sure. For every Dwayne Wade that you get at #5, there are a couple of Nikoloz Tskitishvilis.

Let's look at the last 30 players who were taken at #4-#6:

2002
Drew Gooden
Nikoloz Tskitishvili
Dajuan Wagner

2003
Chris Bosh
Dwayne Wade
Chris Kaman

2004
Shaun Livingston
Devin Harris
Josh Childress

2005
Chris Paul
Raymond Felton
Martell Webster

2006
Tyrus Thomas
Shelden Williams
Brandon Roy

2007
Mike Conley
Jeff Green
Yi Jianlian

2008
Russell Westbrook
Kevin Love
Danilo Gallinari

2009
Tyreke Evans
Ricky Rubio
Jonny Flynn

2010
Wesley Johnson
DeMarcus Cousins
Ekpe Udoh

2011
Tristan Thompson
Jonas Valanciunas
Jan Vesely

Just eyeballing the list, I'd say that Markieff Morris would rank somewhere in the middle of that pack. Some of the players are stars, but others never amounted to anything.

Obviously it is not a given but even the chance to get someone potentially GREAT which is very real picking as high as #5 is worth much more than a PF with limited potential.

 

[jagu]

I don't see how Morris is of "limited" potential. He's barely played and he's doing pretty darn well for his rookie season. Way better than Earl Freaking Clark. Wasn't it you who said he'll become something slinslin because of how athletic he was?

 

[sunsfan88]

Am I the only one who feels like Anthony Davis is a bit overrated?

Anthony Davis is converting 67 percent of his 2-point attempts, with the majority of his touches coming off cuts, offensive rebounds, fast-breaks, and pick-and-rolls.

According to Synergy Sports Technology, only 20 percent of Davis’ offense comes off post-up, spot-up or isolation plays.

Davis is shooting just 27 percent on jumpshots while connecting on 71 percent of his free throw attempts.

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/NBA-Draft-Prospect-of-the-Week-Anthony-Davis-3853/

 

[AzStevenCal]

Am I the only one who feels like Anthony Davis is a bit overrated?

I don't know if you're the only one but I sure don't consider him overrated. Keep in mind that his strength is on the defensive end. He can pretty much guard every position.

Steve

 

[jagu]

I don't know if you're the only one but I sure don't consider him overrated. Keep in mind that his strength is on the defensive end. He can pretty much guard every position.

Steve

Dude is rail thin, if he doesn't "Oden" himself then maybe he has a future. I feel like his knees are going to fold up like a Japanese shadow puppet after the show.