2016 NBA Draft thread

[AzStevenCal]

Please tell me where there are concerns about long term viability. None of Bledsoe's injuries had any concern for long term issues. Irvings foot problems are more problematic in that regard.

And 2 years age difference is really not a big deal.

Irving would be a disaster for Booker.

Irving coming closest to carrying a team is ridiculous. What is he carrying? He plays alongside maybe the best player of all time. Before that he was carrying the Cavs to #1 picks and nothing else. He never proved he could be the man on a decent team.

Bledsoe ranked top 10 in DRPM, like pretty much every year so I would like to see how you back up the claim that Beldsoes defense took a "huge hit". Kyrie Irving ranks like 3rd last in the entire NBA in defensive rpm.

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM/position/1

2013/014 Bledsoe ranked 1st in DRPM, 2014/2015 Bledsoe ranked 3rd best among PGs in terms of DRPM, 2015/2016 he was still 9th.

Kyrie Irving on other hand 83rd of 85 in 2015/2016. Only Zach Lavine and JJ Barea graded worse defensively. 2014/2015 Irving ranked 37th defensively and 2013/2014 he ranked 59th of 67.

You're playing games here, please don't. You've made a big deal out of a year or two difference in age before but now 2.225 years doesn't matter? You've frequently disputed the reliability of DRPM when attacking Rubio's defense (he ranks higher than Bledsoe almost every year and often by quite a bit), but now it's gospel?

And unless I'm reading it wrong, Bledsoe was 10th in DRPM this season, not 9th. But whether it's 9th or 10th, neither ranking supports your claim that Bledsoe "is one of the premier defenders" unless you're really lowering the standard for "premier". I hate watching Cleveland play, I hate watching Irving play, so I have little to say about Kyrie's defense but I have no doubt it's far inferior to Eric's but Eric isn't the special defender he should have been.

 

[slinslin]

You're playing games here, please don't. You've made a big deal out of a year or two difference in age before but now 2.225 years doesn't matter? You've frequently disputed the reliability of DRPM when attacking Rubio's defense (he ranks higher than Bledsoe almost every year and often by quite a bit), but now it's gospel?

And unless I'm reading it wrong, Bledsoe was 10th in DRPM this season, not 9th. But whether it's 9th or 10th, neither ranking supports your claim that Bledsoe "is one of the premier defenders" unless you're really lowering the standard for "premier". I hate watching Cleveland play, I hate watching Irving play, so I have little to say about Kyrie's defense but I have no doubt it's far inferior to Eric's but Eric isn't the special defender he should have been.

??

I have said in the past that Rubio is a good defender.

Also I told you where Bledsoe ranked, last year he was 3rd, Rubio first and Curry 2nd, Wall 4th, Lowry 5th and Smart 6th.
2 years ago Bledsoe was first, Rubio 2nd, holiday 3rd and Paul 4th, Bradley 5t and Beverly 6th.

This year Bledsoe was "only 10th". Paul 1st, Rubio 2nd, Lowry 3rd, Price 4th, Curry 5th, Beverley 6th, Westbrook 7th and Smart 8th.

The names at the top of the statistic are pretty much all PGs who are considered very good defenders by the eye test. The only exception is probably Dragic 9th for this season which might be an outlier or result of Miamis setup. Kyrie Irving ranks 83rd of 85!!

 

[AzStevenCal]

??

I have said in the past that Rubio is a good defender.

Also I told you where Bledsoe ranked, last year he was 3rd, Rubio first and Curry 2nd, Wall 4th, Lowry 5th and Smart 6th.
2 years ago Bledsoe was first, Rubio 2nd, holiday 3rd and Paul 4th, Bradley 5t and Beverly 6th.

This year Bledsoe was "only 10th". Paul 1st, Rubio 2nd, Lowry 3rd, Price 4th, Curry 5th, Beverley 6th, Westbrook 7th and Smart 8th.

The names at the top of the statistic are pretty much all PGs who are considered very good defenders by the eye test. The only exception is probably Dragic 9th for this season which might be an outlier or result of Miamis setup. Kyrie Irving ranks 83rd of 85!!

Yeah, I think my memory is playing tricks on me about Rubio, sorry for laying that on you. But 10th best at your position doesn't make him a premier defender and you seem to be missing the fact that he's dropping which was also my point. And at no time have I suggested Kyrie is a good defender.

 

[Covert Rain]

Am I overvaluing him? Can you honestly guarantee me any player in this draft has more potential? Which player? Why trade away what seems like a fairly sure thing for an unknown?

The NBA is full of guys who have good nights show flashes put up gaudy numbers but never become superstars. So, yes...you could be. There are no guarantees EVER in the draft. Nobody suggested that.

Booker is far from a sure thing IMO. He has shown flashes and has potential for sure. AGAIN, I am simply saying if the Suns are convinced they have a shot at a franchise player, within reason, nobody should be untouchable on this roster.

I think that is a reasonable position. For example, I never would have said that about someone on our roster like Nash or Stat in his prime.

 

[AzStevenCal]

The NBA is full of guys who have good nights show flashes put up gaudy numbers but never become superstars. So, yes...you could be. There are no guarantees EVER in the draft. Nobody suggested that.

Booker is far from a sure thing IMO. He has shown flashes and has potential for sure. AGAIN, I am simply saying if the Suns are convinced they have a shot at a franchise player, within reason, nobody should be untouchable on this roster.

I think that is a reasonable position. For example, I never would have said that about someone on our roster like Nash or Stat in his prime.

Really? Unless you're talking about him as a franchise player, I think he's as sure of a sure thing as there is in this league with a young player. We don't know his ceiling but we surely know he will be a good player. He's shown far more than flashes. His numbers might look like a small sample but watching him play the game removes all doubt about his potential.

He's smart, fluid, skilled and motivated and IMO the only thing in doubt is whether he'll rise to a top 3 type player or whether he peaks in the top 20 range. Either way, that's still a sure thing. There would be far more guess work involving any player in this draft than there is with Devin. Maybe several of those draft picks pass Booker by eventually but that's a gamble that I just can't see any team in the league making, ever.

Just curious but did you start paying more attention to him in the second half of the season when he was forced to play without support and frequently out of position? I ask because I could see how that player could raise doubts in someone's mind and if you frequent other team's forums you'll see exactly those doubts. But when you watched him earlier in the season at his natural position he was a delight to behold. It's so nice to see a player that young that clearly understands position and angles the way he does. It's rare.

 

[Covert Rain]

Really? Unless you're talking about him as a franchise player, I think he's as sure of a sure thing as there is in this league with a young player. We don't know his ceiling but we surely know he will be a good player. He's shown far more than flashes. His numbers might look like a small sample but watching him play the game removes all doubt about his potential.

He's smart, fluid, skilled and motivated and IMO the only thing in doubt is whether he'll rise to a top 3 type player or whether he peaks in the top 20 range. Either way, that's still a sure thing. There would be far more guess work involving any player in this draft than there is with Devin. Maybe several of those draft picks pass Booker by eventually but that's a gamble that I just can't see any team in the league making, ever.

Just curious but did you start paying more attention to him in the second half of the season when he was forced to play without support and frequently out of position? I ask because I could see how that player could raise doubts in someone's mind and if you frequent other team's forums you'll see exactly those doubts. But when you watched him earlier in the season at his natural position he was a delight to behold. It's so nice to see a player that young that clearly understands position and angles the way he does. It's rare.

Yes, the small sampling is a big deal. Not seeing how he handles being a go to guy, playing heavier minutes, stepping up as a leader all are huge questions. I don't think I ever stated he won't be a good player. However, the Suns have had a ton of good players that were not franchise caliber players. I am not ready to anoint him above any of the many good players that have come through this franchise.

I am not even saying there is a franchise player the Suns could get at #3. However, if the Suns think they have an opportunity to get one? You have to take it IMO because they don't come along that often.

 

[elindholm]

If Irving's defense was that bad, you'd think that the Warriors' backcourt would be getting a lot more open looks, one way or another. I'm sure not seeing Golden State take advantage of whatever Irving's alleged defensive weaknesses are.

 

[leclerc]

He's played one season. How good was Amaré and Steve after one season? It's okay to be high on Devin but give him another year or two before we stamp "franchise" on his young forehead.

I don't think Irving is a big improvement on Bledsoe but I think Irving is a better player. Actually I'd rather have Bledsoe as our best player (for now) than having Irving. Irving seems too much of a ball hog to me.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Yes, the small sampling is a big deal. Not seeing how he handles being a go to guy, playing heavier minutes, stepping up as a leader all are huge questions. I don't think I ever stated he won't be a good player. However, the Suns have had a ton of good players that were not franchise caliber players. I am not ready to anoint him above any of the many good players that have come through this franchise.

I am not even saying there is a franchise player the Suns could get at #3. However, if the Suns think they have an opportunity to get one? You have to take it IMO because they don't come along that often.

Then I don't understand what you're saying. We can't know more about how any of the draft picks will do in the NBA than we already know about Booker so the questions you have about Booker would also exist for every other player and to a greater degree. So what would be the reasoning for trading away a player of such promise for an even bigger question mark?

But beyond that, we've made Booker the face and the future of this organization. I feel confident in saying we would not trade him straight up for any player in this draft, including Simmons. Maybe he tops off lower than hoped but it's clear the organization is pushing him to the forefront. Something would have to change (DUI etc) for this front office to pull a 180 on him now.

 

[AzStevenCal]

He's played one season. How good was Amaré and Steve after one season? It's okay to be high on Devin but give him another year or two before we stamp "franchise" on his young forehead.

I don't think Irving is a big improvement on Bledsoe but I think Irving is a better player. Actually I'd rather have Bledsoe as our best player (for now) than having Irving. Irving seems too much of a ball hog to me.

We have no idea if he's going to become a franchise player but it's clear the franchise considers him the new face of the organization. It's far too early to say what his ceiling is.

 

[Covert Rain]

Then I don't understand what you're saying. We can't know more about how any of the draft picks will do in the NBA than we already know about Booker so the questions you have about Booker would also exist for every other player and to a greater degree. So what would be the reasoning for trading away a player of such promise for an even bigger question mark?

But beyond that, we've made Booker the face and the future of this organization. I feel confident in saying we would not trade him straight up for any player in this draft, including Simmons. Maybe he tops off lower than hoped but it's clear the organization is pushing him to the forefront. Something would have to change (DUI etc) for this front office to pull a 180 on him now.

I was postulating that if the Suns don't think Booker is a future franchise player and they think that someone in the draft could be he shouldn't be untouchable. It's really that simple. On the other hand if the Suns think there is franchise potential in Booker or if there isn't franchise potential at the #3 making a trade doesn't make sense.

In another words, there is nobody on our roster at this point that should be untouchable if you think you can get your hands on a franchise player. I simply don't see anybody like that on this team. Not another Nash or Amare type player that I would see as untouchable.

 

[slinslin]

If Irving's defense was that bad, you'd think that the Warriors' backcourt would be getting a lot more open looks, one way or another. I'm sure not seeing Golden State take advantage of whatever Irving's alleged defensive weaknesses are.

Its not like Irving defends Curry.

Over the first 2 or 3 games of the series there was a statistic showing that Irvings man shot 78% over those games.

 

[Sunburn]

The NBA is full of guys who have good nights show flashes put up gaudy numbers but never become superstars. So, yes...you could be. There are no guarantees EVER in the draft. Nobody suggested that.

Booker is far from a sure thing IMO.

Really? Unless you're talking about him as a franchise player, I think he's as sure of a sure thing as there is in this league with a young player. We don't know his ceiling but we surely know he will be a good player. He's shown far more than flashes. His numbers might look like a small sample but watching him play the game removes all doubt about his potential.

He's smart, fluid, skilled and motivated and IMO the only thing in doubt is whether he'll rise to a top 3 type player or whether he peaks in the top 20 range. Either way, that's still a sure thing. There would be far more guess work involving any player in this draft than there is with Devin. Maybe several of those draft picks pass Booker by eventually but that's a gamble that I just can't see any team in the league making, ever.

Just curious but did you start paying more attention to him in the second half of the season when he was forced to play without support and frequently out of position? I ask because I could see how that player could raise doubts in someone's mind and if you frequent other team's forums you'll see exactly those doubts. But when you watched him earlier in the season at his natural position he was a delight to behold. It's so nice to see a player that young that clearly understands position and angles the way he does. It's rare.

Yes, the small sampling is a big deal. Not seeing how he handles being a go to guy, playing heavier minutes, stepping up as a leader all are huge questions. I don't think I ever stated he won't be a good player. However, the Suns have had a ton of good players that were not franchise caliber players. I am not ready to anoint him above any of the many good players that have come through this franchise.

I am not even saying there is a franchise player the Suns could get at #3. However, if the Suns think they have an opportunity to get one? You have to take it IMO because they don't come along that often.

Haha, I knew we'd agree on something at some point, Steve. I'd just like to add we're talking about a kid that was made the focal point of an NBA offense at age 19 and produced numbers that put him in a club of four with Lebron James, Kevin Durant, and Kobe Bryant. In a 51 game sample size as starter, playing 34 mpg, he averaged 18 ppg. If that's not clearly more franchise potential than every, single guy in this draft, I don't know what is. At the very least, we KNOW we have a way above average, 19 year old, starting shooting guard with proven upside as a franchise player. A team would be out of their mind to trade him for any pick in this draft. There is no sure thing "Tim Duncan" type.

 

[AzStevenCal]

This. Haha, I knew we'd agree on something at some point Steve. I'd just to like to add we're talking about a kid that was the made the focal point of an NBA offense at age 19 and produced numbers that put him in a club of four with Lebron James, Kevin Durant, and Kobe Bryant. In a 51 game sample size as starter he averaged 18 ppg. If that's not clearly more NBA potential than every, single guy in this draft, I don't know what is. At the very least, we KNOW we have a way above average, 19 year old, starting shooting guard with proven upside as a franchise player. A team would be out of their mind to trade him for a pick in this draft.

Plus he's the type of player that fans, especially young female fans, absolutely love. He's great for the organization and he appears to also have his head on straight. IMO, if the NBA kicked him back into this draft there would be teams trying to trade with Philly for the first pick in order to grab him. Nobody wants to waste a draft pick on a guy just for his fan appeal but when that player also appears to have All Star potential, it's an easy call.

And we really aren't the ones anointing him as a next generation star. Both Wade and Kobe beat us to it.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Why Hield? He is probably the worst fit and the oldest possible player at #4.

Davis to me comes across as stupid and pretty limited player. His interview with draft express seems to me like a player who overrates himself and lacks the ability to self-reflect.

So I watched the interview expecting to see something that I didn't. I have no problem with his answers there and I don't think he came across particularly stupid either. He wasn't arrogant or cocky, just displayed a typical level of confidence you'd want your players to show IMO. Although I admit he isn't a finished product, he's still very young.

He doesn't seem to know the game well but that's my biggest concern with Chriss too. I think Davis is a risk at 13 but I really don't see him as any more of a gamble at 13 than Marquese is at 4. His floor might be Ed Davis but his ceiling looks somewhat higher than that to me.

 

[slinslin]

So I watched the interview expecting to see something that I didn't. I have no problem with his answers there and I don't think he came across particularly stupid either. He wasn't arrogant or cocky, just displayed a typical level of confidence you'd want your players to show IMO. Although I admit he isn't a finished product, he's still very young.

He doesn't seem to know the game well but that's my biggest concern with Chriss too. I think Davis is a risk at 13 but I really don't see him as any more of a gamble at 13 than Marquese is at 4. His floor might be Ed Davis but his ceiling looks somewhat higher than that to me.

His floor is not Ed Davis.

Deyonta is a worse prospect than Noah Vonleh was imo and Noah Vonleh is so far a worse NBA player than Ed Davis still.

Deyonta Davis plays like a center, he is not agile and his comments about being able to shoot but Izzo not allowing his big man to shoot sounds like complete bs to me.
As if Izzo would stop his bigs from making jumpshots if they were good at it.

If you compare the interview of Davis to the interview of Chriss it is pretty clear to me that Chriss is the better prospect in every way.

 

[Sunburn]

Plus he's the type of player that fans, especially young female fans, absolutely love. He's great for the organization and he appears to also have his head on straight. IMO, if the NBA kicked him back into this draft there would be teams trying to trade with Philly for the first pick in order to grab him. Nobody wants to waste a draft pick on a guy just for his fan appeal but when that player also appears to have All Star potential, it's an easy call.

And we really aren't the ones anointing him as a next generation star. Both Wade and Kobe beat us to it.

Very true and another reason why he's untouchable short of acquiring a top five player.

 

[slinslin]

Russell is pure average in my opinion I doubt he would go top 5 in a re-draft. He is pretty bad athlete, not explosive, and his passing is nowhere near as good as I thought it would be. He is making nice highlight passes but that is it, overall he seems to make poor decisions often. He honestly reminds me of an unathletic Brandon Knight with the ability to make crisp highlight passes.

I would have Towns, Booker, Porzingis in the top 3 followed by Okafor and Turner I think.

The next batch would probably be Winslow, Mudiay, Russell, Cauley-Stein, Johnson, Lyles.

Mudiay is a terrible shooter as of right now but I think all his other skills are at least equal or better than D'Angelo so in terms of ceiling I would have Mudiay ahead definitely.

 

[Sunburn]

Russell is pure average in my opinion I doubt he would go top 5 in a re-draft. He is pretty bad athlete, not explosive, and his passing is nowhere near as good as I thought it would be. He is making nice highlight passes but that is it, overall he seems to make poor decisions often. He honestly reminds me of an unathletic Brandon Knight with the ability to make crisp highlight passes.

I would have Towns, Booker, Porzingis in the top 3 followed by Okafor and Turner I think.

The next batch would probably be Winslow, Mudiay, Russell, Cauley-Stein, Johnson, Lyles.

Mudiay is a terrible shooter as of right now but I think all his other skills are at least equal or better than D'Angelo so in terms of ceiling I would have Mudiay ahead definitely.

I like your rankings. I agree with you that Russell is over-rated, especially with his maturity issues.

 

[Sunburn]

ESPN has a draft trade article up now and has this doozy. What do you guys think?

Knicks send: Carmelo Anthony and Robin Lopez to Cleveland

Cavaliers send: Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, Mo Williams and Sasha Kaun to Phoenix

Suns send: Eric Bledsoe to Cleveland; Brandon Knight, Alex Len, P.J. Tucker, Archie Goodwin and the Nos. 4 and 13 picks to New York

I believe, like Chris Bosh, Love would return to All-Star form on a Lebron-less team. Because of this, I would do this trade. Bledsoe's injury history scares me, Brandon Knight is infuriating, Alex Len is frustrating, 4 and 13 are a crap shoot. I do not see PJ and Archie as long term pieces. I do this trade. Only thing that would hurt is Bledsoe. I like his two way ability. I might be more interested in not obtaining Irving, keeping Bledsoe, and going through with the rest of the deal. Essentially, being Love for Knight, Len, Tucker, Goodwin, 4 and 13. Seems like a lot for an under-performing player, but it would be a steal if he returned to form.

 

[slinslin]

I believe, like Chris Bosh, Love would return to All-Star form on a Lebron-less team. Because of this, I would do this trade. Bledsoe's injury history scares me, Brandon Knight is infuriating, Alex Len is frustrating, 4 and 13 are a crap shoot. I do not see PJ and Archie as long term pieces. I do this trade.

If Kevin Love is the man and puts up 25/12 we already know that you are a top 5 lottery team.

The difference between Bosh and Love is that Bosh had moderate success as a franchise player, Love has been the definition of empty stats and losing.
Also Bosh plays defense, Love does not. Also Bosh has enough size to play center, Love does not.

#4 in any Kevin Love trade is an automatic no.

Plus Love turns 28. I would rather get a 19 year old (in july) Chriss to grow with Booker then adding a 28 year old career loser who might stand in the way of Bookers development into "the man".

 

[Sunburn]

If Kevin Love is the man and puts up 25/12 we already know that you are a top 5 lottery team.

The difference between Bosh and Love is that Bosh had moderate success as a franchise player, Love has been the definition of empty stats and losing.
Also Bosh plays defense, Love does not. Also Bosh has enough size to play center, Love does not.

#4 in any Kevin Love trade is an automatic no.

Plus Love turns 28. I would rather get a 19 year old (in july) Chriss to grow with Booker then adding a 28 year old career loser who might stand in the way of Bookers development into "the man".

Ya, you might be right. I wonder what Cleveland would be if they kept Wiggins. Bender/Chriss easily could turn out more valuable if Love stays a turd. Still, Love's Twolves teams were awfully bare and I do believe he lead them to .500 ball basically by himself. The thought of 25 and 12 is enticing.

 

[slinslin]

fyi

Some interesting rumors on draft promises and medical issues on basketball insiders. Tyler Ulis is supposedly red flagged for a significant hip issue that may require surgery, Denzel Valentine has knee issues and was compared to Danny Granger by some teams in terms of future knee damage, Celtics are eyeing Brown, Murray, or Chriss if they keep their pick (probably smoke knowing Ainge), Malachi Richardson may have a promise in the late teens, Sabonis may have a promise in the top 12, plenty of international guys have "promises", etc.

Syracuse’s Malachi Richardson is believed to have a soft promise in the teens. He is said to be one of the favorites of the Memphis Grizzlies, who also are also said to have eyes for Demetrius Jackson. This could come down to who’s there at No. 17 for the Grizz.

Gonzaga’s Domantas Sabonis is said to have a soft promise in the top 12. It’s believed he may be Toronto’s guy at No. 9 or Orlando’s guy at No. 11, which would explain why he’s refused to work out for anyone outside the top 12.

 

[Russ Smith]

Ya, you might be right. I wonder what Cleveland would be if they kept Wiggins. Bender/Chriss easily could turn out more valuable if Love stays a turd. Still, Love's Twolves teams were awfully bare and I do believe he lead them to .500 ball basically by himself. The thought of 25 and 12 is enticing.

Wiggins is a great athlete but he's a terrible defender that doesn't pass and most of his offense is post up isos or regular isos, so in Cleveland how does he score he's not getting that with James and irving on the ball all the time.

Love doesn't fit either but Wiggins would have to completely change his current game to fit in Cleveland.

Put it this way he played for a great college coach in a program that emphasizes ball movement and good shots, and averaged less than 2APG at Kansas and is right around 2 in the NBA with VERY high usage stats. he doesn't pass the ball.

 

[FArting]

https://twitter.com/SunsNation_NBA/status/742907214336266240

Please draft Hield.