D'Backs playoff hunt

[RINGLESS]

Rockies have lost their 8th straight, and just 8 days ago I was thinking they'd never lose again.

 

[BillsCarnage]

Could the NL West have three teams with 95-100 wins? The Rockies need to do some catching up though.

 

[82CardsGrad]

Could the NL West have three teams with 95-100 wins? The Rockies need to do some catching up though.

Well, the barring a major/catastrophic injury, the Dodgers seemed assured of at least 95 wins... And for us, right now if the Dbacks went .500 the rest of the way, we would hit 93 wins...

 

[RINGLESS]

Magic number now down to 71!!!! Never really could have expected it to be this low in a million years coming into the all star break. We still have 7 games to go until then... That Dodgers series is looming

 

[RINGLESS]

Pesky little Cubs won ha! But so did we! What a great day overall, D'Backs win, Rockies lose again..... Oh and the Dodgers too! Magic number is now 70!!!! Wow we are moving along quick. This next series has the potential to change things quickly in either direction.

 

[Azlen]

Pesky little Cubs won ha! But so did we! What a great day overall, D'Backs win, Rockies lose again..... Oh and the Dodgers too! Magic number is now 70!!!! Wow we are moving along quick. This next series has the potential to change things quickly in either direction.

The Braves and the Cardinals are closing in on the Cubs. We may have to stop using the Cubs for the playoff magic number calculation some time in the future. As I type this they all have the same number of losses so the magic number is the same for all 3 but the Cards are down 5 to the Nats so that will change by the end of the day probably.

 

[BC867]

Magic number now down to 71!!!! Never really could have expected it to be this low in a million years coming into the all star break. We still have 7 games to go until then... That Dodgers series is looming

Game 1 vs. the Dodgers is a given . . . loss. Their ace starter vs. our worst. Hopefully we can play our best in Games 2 and 3.

 

[Dback Jon]

Cubs lost yesterday

163 - 52 (Dback Wins) - 42 (Cubs Losses) = 69

 

[Dback Jon]

In spite of the Dodger horror, Dbacks are still 3.5 up on home Wild card, 9.5 up on second wild card

163 - 52 (Dback Wins) - 43 (Cubs Losses) = 68

 

[Dback Jon]

At All-Star Break:

163 - 53 (Dback Wins) - 45 (Cubs/Cardinals/Braves Losses) = 65

 

[Ronin]

Jeremy Cluff‏@Jeremy_Cluff 5m5 minutes ago
Odds not in #Dbacks favor to pass #Dodgers. Team given just .5% chance to win division (but 88% chance for playoffs)

 

[Dude]

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[RON_IN_OC]

Yay...tacos.

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[Dback Jon]

Cubs lost today

 

[DWKB]

Something to keep in mind: This season, at least the first half, is PEAK for this team with several players exceeding projections. This isn't typical as the regression is already hitting. This team isn't a long term plan, it's a short flare of a season. We don't have a farm system or a payroll to fill the holes or improve in the next few seasons.

My point is, enjoy this season as much as you can for what it's worth.

I'm afraid in hindsight, once the sheen has worn off, that my original suggestion of putting Goldy and Greinke on the market will have been the better path long term.

 

[Shaggy]

Something to keep in mind: This season, at least the first half, is PEAK for this team with several players exceeding projections. This isn't typical as the regression is already hitting. This team isn't a long term plan, it's a short flare of a season. We don't have a farm system or a payroll to fill the holes or improve in the next few seasons.

My point is, enjoy this season as much as you can for what it's worth.

I'm afraid in hindsight, once the sheen has worn off, that my original suggestion of putting Goldy and Greinke on the market will have been the better path long term.

Glad they didn't, even for a long time goal. I like both to much to be traded away, even though Goldy is in a huge slump.

 

[DWKB]

Glad they didn't, even for a long time goal. I like both to much to be traded away, even though Goldy is in a huge slump.

Win a WS this year and it's worth it, but if we flub the playoffs and then end up with another 7 years of mediocrity on the field, I don't know if it is so worth it.

 

[Dback Jon]

Something to keep in mind: This season, at least the first half, is PEAK for this team with several players exceeding projections. This isn't typical as the regression is already hitting. This team isn't a long term plan, it's a short flare of a season. We don't have a farm system or a payroll to fill the holes or improve in the next few seasons.

My point is, enjoy this season as much as you can for what it's worth.

I'm afraid in hindsight, once the sheen has worn off, that my original suggestion of putting Goldy and Greinke on the market will have been the better path long term.

Hmmm

Lamb is still young and improving
Marte is going to be our starting SS for a long time
Goldy is Goldy - not an MVP candidate (which you claimed he was) but a very good player prone to extended slumps, which he is showing signs of getting out of
Pollock and Owings are who they are.
Drury is still growing, and hasn't reached peak
Peralta is improved, and getting better, so no peak.
Other OF is a concern, but for the last half, JD Martinez is a huge improvement.

Greinke is having a Greinke season. Corbin and Walker are who they should be. Ray is much improved over last year and getting better, Godly is where Ray was last year.



Sabermetrics wise, the Dbacks SHOULD have won at least three more games out of the last 30 - they went 14-16, but had a +28 run differential.


Milwaukee and Colorado are the ones regressing to the mean.

 

[DWKB]

Hmmm

Lamb is still young and improving
Marte is going to be our starting SS for a long time
Goldy is Goldy - not an MVP candidate (which you claimed he was) but a very good player prone to extended slumps, which he is showing signs of getting out of
Pollock and Owings are who they are.
Drury is still growing, and hasn't reached peak
Peralta is improved, and getting better, so no peak.
Other OF is a concern, but for the last half, JD Martinez is a huge improvement.

Greinke is having a Greinke season. Corbin and Walker are who they should be. Ray is much improved over last year and getting better, Godly is where Ray was last year.



Sabermetrics wise, the Dbacks SHOULD have won at least three more games out of the last 30 - they went 14-16, but had a +28 run differential.


Milwaukee and Colorado are the ones regressing to the mean.

I don't know what you expect me to say to this, Nuh Uh?

 

[GatorAZ]

The jury is still out on Marte. He's got some incredible power but seems to a pretty poor hitter so far.

 

[Dback Jon]

I don't know what you expect me to say to this, Nuh Uh?

You stated a general opinion. I stated a counter with specifics. You can counter, or we can assume I am correct

 

[Dback Jon]

Today, before the Dbacks game but including MLW result

163 - 58 (Dback Wins) - 50 (Brewers Losses) = 55

 

[DWKB]

Hmmm

Lamb is still young and improving
Lamb's 150+ wRC in May is not likely to be the norm. His wRC of 111 since then falls in line with last season's 114 wRC.

Marte is going to be our starting SS for a long time
Marte has had 53 PAs total for a wRC of 83. In 2003 Alex Cintron managed a wRC of 115 in 487 PAs. I'm not sure what argument you're trying to make here or how you think Marte is going to break out from what you've seen so far.

Goldy is Goldy - not an MVP candidate (which you claimed he was) but a very good player prone to extended slumps, which he is showing signs of getting out of

Goldschmidt's resurgence this year has been a nice surprise, but he's most likely gone after 2019. Expense will be too much for our payroll to handle I predict. If not, we will hamstring the team to build anything around him.

Pollock and Owings are who they are.
Didn't you want to throw bags of money at Pollock not too long ago?

Drury is still growing, and hasn't reached peak
What exactly is a "Drury peak"? He's currently a 94 wRC player and offensively worse than last year with a higher BABIP.

Peralta is improved, and getting better, so no peak.
Peralta is 29 years old and injury prone, explain to me how this isn't a Danny Bautista v2002 season.

Other OF is a concern, but for the last half, JD Martinez is a huge improvement.
Is Martinez even in the cards long term and how do we afford that?

Greinke is having a Greinke season.
Yes, it is a nice season, last year wasn't though. Which one is real moving forward?

Corbin and Walker are who they should be.
We need them to be better if we want to continue to compete in the future.

Ray is much improved over last year and getting better
Ray is having a BABIP anomaly this year (.272 compared to a career .324). How do you know he's turned a corner vs this being an anomaly season for him?

Godly is where Ray was last year.
27 year old with less than 200 IP career and a BABIP of .257 (11th in MLB for those 80+ IP) this year.


Sabermetrics wise, the Dbacks SHOULD have won at least three more games out of the last 30 - they went 14-16, but had a +28 run differential.


Milwaukee and Colorado are the ones regressing to the mean.
You've now made me trash talk the whole team to counter your wide eyed optimism that all of our players will improve and stay healthy and we have nowhere to go but up. That's not going to happen and when it doesn't what moves can the organization make to adjust to these setbacks? Who do you call up or sign/trade for?

 

[82CardsGrad]

I don't know what you expect me to say to this, Nuh Uh?

I think Jon provided some solid details... Your statement in this thread is without the detail. If you believe the team as a whole hit their peaks in the first half, therefore nobody should be fooled into believing the future will look anything like the first half, offer up the specifics.
For the record, I personally don't see this team as anything close to World Series quality. However, the addition of Martinez has me more bullish about the ability of this team to pull themselves out of this slump and make the post season. Which, given what I had expected of this season, is a massive bonus!
I also agree that the lack of quality talent in our system will hamstring the team from making the moves needed to become a legit World Series contender. I believe they have barely enough to consistently contend for post season play, with guys like Goldy, Lamb, Pollock, Peralta, Owings, Marte, Greinke, Ray, Corbin, Godley, Walker, Bradley... I don't see them signing Martinez to a long-term deal. And if one or more of these players begins to experience poor play and/or an extended slump - particularly Goldy, well - we lose... it's a simple as that. Which does not make for a World Series contending team...

 

[Dback Jon]

So someone in the second full year in MLB (Lamb) has a norm to compare too?

At 23, Marte has the defensive skills, speed, and power. Plate discipline needs work, but I see him improving (like I did with Ray)

Even if Goldy is gone after 2 years, that is 2018/19 with both Goldy and Greinke, and I like our chances.

I like Pollock, but not going to throw money at an injury prone player. He is a Dback for at least one more year, so let's see if we want to keep him.

Drury hasn't played a full season yet. Shirley you aren't telling me that players never improve?


I expect Peralta to get slightly better in the next few years. Just a hunch.

Ray is only 25. The difference between last year and this year is night and day. Why would you think he would regress?
Godly is getting his first year at full time starting. Better than last year, will be better still next year. I didn't realize pitchers stopped getting better at 27


I see you ignored my last two.

You use stats when it suits you, then ignore the same when it goes against your argument