Encouraging Kyler Murray Trends

[Solar7]

I didn't miss anything
After u realized many here were tired of the negativity of your posts towards Murray u changed your approach making not very convincingly praise but substantially u still don't like the player and it seems u can't wait for him to fail

I didn't change my approach to satisfy anyone. Kyler proved to be better than I expected. Good on him. It's as simple as that. But it's not enough for me to completely turn course, especially when I don't trust in the leadership around him.

Completely disagree on the football and/or general IQ aspect of Jameis. No one is questioning his physical ability to throw a football. He consistently throws into coverages that by now he should be able to recognize. If he's throwing picks because he has the gunslinger mentality of a Favre/Mahomes, then his general IQ comes into play. On top of that, how many times in his career have we seen him almost come to blows with teammates on the sideline? Finally, what's with the need to compare these 2 guys?? The only thing they have in common is the color of their skin. Something is very wrong when a veteran QB throws 30 interceptions in a season. And I refuse to compare our stud rookie QB to someone that lacks maturity both on and off the field.

I think what you fail to miss in my arguments is that I'm comparing the two rookie seasons in a vacuum. We need to let go of all of the next five years of his play, because he has proven to be divisive at best. My point is we're counting chickens before they hatch. There's a ton on Murray's plate for him to prove until we can say he's not going to fall off like many rookie QBs into the rest of their contract.

Totally disagree with the bolded portion. I think he was the best rookie QB this season and I think most of the analytics (advanced and standard) back up that assertion.

I'm not really sure how you say that so assertively. Kyler is responsible for more yards, but had 16 games to Minshew & Daniel Jones' 12, and still fell short of them in passing TDs. He threw six more INTs than Minshew, and tied Jones at 12. He had the lowest quarterback rating of the three.

 

[slanidrac16]

I didn't change my approach to satisfy anyone. Kyler proved to be better than I expected. Good on him. It's as simple as that. But it's not enough for me to completely turn course, especially when I don't trust in the leadership around him.


I think what you fail to miss in my arguments is that I'm comparing the two rookie seasons in a vacuum. We need to let go of all of the next five years of his play, because he has proven to be divisive at best. My point is we're counting chickens before they hatch. There's a ton on Murray's plate for him to prove until we can say he's not going to fall off like many rookie QBs into the rest of their contract.


I'm not really sure how you say that so assertively. Kyler is responsible for more yards, but had 16 games to Minshew & Daniel Jones' 12, and still fell short of them in passing TDs. He threw six more INTs than Minshew, and tied Jones at 12. He had the lowest quarterback rating of the three.

I don’t think every pro Kyler poster is counting chickens before they hatch..... but we certainly are staring at the egg!

 

[Solar7]

I don’t think every pro Kyler poster is counting chickens before they hatch..... but we certainly are staring at the egg!

Yeah and I don't mean to derail a thread that's legitimately meant to be positive. I think there's plenty of reason to be excited, but it's so reliant on what this staff and GM does going forward in building this team and improving the coaching.

 

[DVontel]

I'm not really sure how you say that so assertively. Kyler is responsible for more yards, but had 16 games to Minshew & Daniel Jones' 12, and still fell short of them in passing TDs. He threw six more INTs than Minshew, and tied Jones at 12. He had the lowest quarterback rating of the three.

What about turnovers?

 

[TJ]

Why in the hell do we want to insinuate that Murray will go backwards in year 2??? I don't get that. Just because Jameis & Mayfield did, doesn't make it so that KM will. None of us have a crystal ball, but Murray is a much different animal than Jameis & Mayfield. I've elaborated enough on Jameis. I follow the Browns closely. Their OL is much worse than ours, if that's even possible. Mayfield doesn't have the escapeability that Murray has, so he's more reliant on having a clean pocket than KM is. KM is a hard working, success driven kid. No one will outwork him. If he could play as well as he did with the below average talent around him this year, then I fully expect him to continue to improve as we put more offensive & defensive talent around him in year 2.

No one ever said he's guaranteed to go backwards. Rather, even though he had a very good rookie campaign, we can't be fine with the status quo and should expect that he takes the next step next season. The 2018 draft class serves as a good indicator of what it looks like to go one of many ways. Lamar Jackson made a significant jump from his rookie year, which is what we all hope Kyler does. Josh Allen and Sam Darnold were slightly better. Baker regressed (this is with improved talent around him). Rosen couldn't hold on to the starting job when given the opportunity.

 

[Solar7]

What about turnovers?

I mentioned INTs, but here's total turnovers. Kyler had 14 turnovers to Minshew's 13. Daniel Jones was very fumble prone and lost 11 fumbles on top of his 12 INTs, putting him at 23.

Jones' turnovers are definitely concerning and probably put him at the bottom of the pack, but there's talent among all of these guys and you can definitely make an argument with the numbers in front of you about who is the best. I wouldn't trade for either, but there's an argument to be had.

 

[daves]

I'm not really sure how you say that so assertively. Kyler is responsible for more yards, but had 16 games to Minshew & Daniel Jones' 12, and still fell short of them in passing TDs. He threw six more INTs than Minshew, and tied Jones at 12. He had the lowest quarterback rating of the three.

Actually, Murray had the highest QBR of the three (56 vs. 55 for Jones & 45 for Minshew). The passer ratings, on the other hand, were very close but Murray was lowest (87, vs. 91 for Minshew & 88 for Jones). Passer rating, of course, doesn't take into account game situations, rushing, fumbles, etc.

All three were within one yard per game of one another at around 233.

...dbs

 

[Solar7]

Actually, Murray had the highest QBR of the three (56 vs. 55 for Jones & 45 for Minshew). The passer ratings, on the other hand, were very close but Murray was lowest (87, vs. 91 for Minshew & 88 for Jones). Passer rating, of course, doesn't take into account game situations, rushing, fumbles, etc.

All three were within one yard per game of one another at around 233.

...dbs

You do realize "passer rating" is actually truly called "Quarterback Rating" and QBR is just a made-up stat by ESPN that is just meant to confuse people into thinking that's the true Quarterback Rating, right?

Edit: Also, per ESPN: QBR: Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating, which values the quarterback on all play types on a 0-100 scale adjusted for the strength of opposing defenses faced.

...so that means someone at ESPN is essentially going through and adjusting the strength of the defense based on some other algorithm, which means it should additionally change throughout the year because the defense's strength is never a statistical constant.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

You do realize "passer rating" is actually truly called "Quarterback Rating" and QBR is just a made-up stat by ESPN that is just meant to confuse people into thinking that's the true Quarterback Rating, right?

Edit: Also, per ESPN: QBR: Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating, which values the quarterback on all play types on a 0-100 scale adjusted for the strength of opposing defenses faced.

...so that means someone at ESPN is essentially going through and adjusting the strength of the defense based on some other algorithm, which means it should additionally change throughout the year because the defense's strength is never a statistical constant.

There is RAW QBR and Adjusted QBR. The numbers posted above were the raw numbers that have not been adjusted for quality of opponent.

 

[Solar7]

There is RAW QBR and Adjusted QBR. The numbers posted above were the raw numbers that have not been adjusted for quality of opponent.

Thanks for the clarification. But still, I was accurate with the Quarterback Ratings I posted for each guy.

 

[daves]

You do realize "passer rating" is actually truly called "Quarterback Rating"

You are exactly 100% wrong. It's "passer rating" because it takes into account nothing but passing stats.

...dbs

 

[Krangodnzr]

Freaking revisionist history, man. That's all it is.

Kyler's good. I like him, I want him to succeed, and he's got tons of potential. But you keep pretending he's already made it. This is what people said about Jameis, RG3, Mariota, many young players with potential. Jameis basically outplayed or matched Kyler in his rookie year. There's still an argument about who the best rookie QB is, much less if Kyler's arrived. I can't even explain how frustrating this continues to be to me -- and even though they don't post here, people I explain the KM love to that are big NFL fans as a whole.

I won't debate that he's the best rookie QB the Cardinals have ever had. But the same people who say he's perfect and the rest of us need to be ecstatic about him seem to keep saying he needs an elite WR to perform. That everything he didn't manage to do is somehow his fault. He's a rookie! He gets the chance to develop! But he's not "only scratching the surface," or worth insulting a guy like Jameis over. You're pretending you know the future off of one good rookie campaign.

Many modern era QBs have come in and produced near what Kyler has, and then have found themselves knee deep in the conversation of "should we keep them or not."

Insulting other QBs who have produced similarly doesn't help your cause.

1. Why do you keep saying that people are saying Murray needs an ELITE WR to perform? No one is saying that. What Murray needs is ONE WR who can get open and catch the ball consistently. If I would vote one guy that really disappointed me this year, I'd have to say Christian Kirk. He just doesnt catch the ball consistently enough.

2. Many modern QBs have performed as well as Murray? I dont think that is true. I like what @kerouac9 said in one of his posts: Murray's rookie season falls in the top 25% of rookie seasons by performance.

3. I get some of the reasons for comparing Murray to Winston, but I think the error in comparison is that Winston is a massive piece of poo human being. He has been accused of sexual assault twice and was caught stealing. His decision making on the football field was even suspect in college. Murray has never legitimately had theses kind of questions about him. This isnt a small issue.

4. From everything that everyone has said about Murray that we know, I think the biggest concern with Murray will always be injuries since he likes run around. He is pretty amazing at avoiding hits, but how long until he truly takes a slobber knocker? He also plays with a bit of tentativeness that limits his performance. Can he get over this, and let the ball fly a little more, or take off and take a chance at getting hit a little?

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

Thanks for the clarification. But still, I was accurate with the Quarterback Ratings I posted for each guy.

Most sites refer to it as passer rating and not Quarterback Rating, but that may have come about because of the introduction of QBR.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Most sites refer to it as passer rating and not Quarterback Rating, but that may have come about because of the introduction of QBR.

I like QBR since it is qualitative.

 

[Solar7]

You are exactly 100% wrong. It's "passer rating" because it takes into account nothing but passing stats.

...dbs

It is literally also called Quarterback Rating, and is the same quarterback rating stat that has been used for decades before "QBR" was invented by ESPN in 2011. It is the official formula used by the NFL to determine its passing leader, QBR is just a flashy metric ESPN coined.

 

[Solar7]

1. Why do you keep saying that people are saying Murray needs an ELITE WR to perform? No one is saying that. What Murray needs is ONE WR who can get open and catch the ball consistently. If I would vote one guy that really disappointed me this year, I'd have to say Christian Kirk. He just doesnt catch the ball consistently enough.

2. Many modern QBs have performed as well as Murray? I dont think that is true. I like what @kerouac9 said in one of his posts: Murray's rookie season falls in the top 25% of rookie seasons by performance.

3. I get some of the reasons for comparing Murray to Winston, but I think the error in comparison is that Winston is a massive piece of **** human being. He has been accused of sexual assault twice and was caught stealing. His decision making on the football field was even suspect in college. Murray has never legitimately had theses kind of questions about him. This isnt a small issue.

4. From everything that everyone has said about Murray that we know, I think the biggest concern with Murray will always be injuries since he likes run around. He is pretty amazing at avoiding hits, but how long until he truly takes a slobber knocker? He also plays with a bit of tentativeness that limits his performance. Can he get over this, and let the ball fly a little more, or take off and take a chance at getting hit a little?

1. People are begging to take a WR in the top 10. Needing a CeeDee Lamb or Jerry Jeudy to take Kyler to the next level when this roster shouldn't have a hole at WR is the big issue. I'm all for saying KM needs a big guy on the outside with more consistency. Filling it with one of those two players means he needs an elite guy. You guys wanna take a stab in the 2nd or third because Keim sucks and hasn't drafted a decent WR in years? I'm on board. I'm not so much on board when this team is missing starters at 7-9 positions as of today.

2. 25% is fine, and all I meant by "many." But there are a solid amount of QBs in that 25% who went on to struggle through the rest of their careers and are not the solutions for their franchise. Winston being one of them.

3. My only comparison is the play on the field. A phenomenal rookie year, like Baker Mayfield, that did not turn into becoming one of the best QBs in the league, although I bet every Bucs fan thought he would. We can use RG3 for comparison too. Mariota's another. Wentz, Bradford, Cam. All players picked in the top two that had damn good rookie seasons and are now questionable players without winning a championship or maintaining the promise of their rookie season.

4. Let's hope.

The dude just needs to show more to really have arrived. Lots of reasons to be excited about him, but no reason to say he's already locked things down.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

It is literally also called Quarterback Rating, and is the same quarterback rating stat that has been used for decades before "QBR" was invented by ESPN in 2011. It is the official formula used by the NFL to determine its passing leader, QBR is just a flashy metric ESPN coined.

It's not just some "flashy metric", it is the only thing that factors in more than just box score passing stats for a QB. Passer rating doesn't bother to factor in things like sacks, fumbles, distance of throws, rushing yards/TDs and penalties. While it certainly isn't a perfect stat it does a much better job of assessing overall performance of a QB than passer rating.

 

[Solar7]

Most sites refer to it as passer rating and not Quarterback Rating, but that may have come about because of the introduction of QBR.

I'm only saying it because @daves gave me the "actually," and then tried to show I was wrong about my stats. Pro Football Reference coins it as Quarterback Rating, along with plenty of other sites, but you're right that some may have switched to Passer Rating to try to make it distinct.

But QBR isn't a metric the NFL officially recognizes.

 

[Solar7]

It's not just some "flashy metric", it is the only thing that factors in more than just box score passing stats for a QB. Passer rating doesn't bother to factor in things like sacks, fumbles, distance of throws, rushing yards/TDs and penalties. While it certainly isn't a perfect stat it does a much better job of assessing overall performance of a QB than passer rating.

It's a flashy metric because it's a metric that other outlets covering the games aren't even allowed to use in their broadcast.

QBR means as little to me as DVOA or PFF's ratings, because they are not quantitative and therefore would be two different numbers if you asked two different people. Quarterback Rating/Passer Rating is the exact same number no matter which way you slice it.

Edit: Advanced analytics do have their place, but I'm not going to hold advanced analytics numbers over cold, hard, quantitative information.

 

[SoonerLou]

Like I said earlier I'm pretty sure Kyler missed out on 6 TDs because of drops/penalty

Maybe the other guys had dropped TDs as well. I remember Minshew having one dropped vs. the Titans and another one dropped for Jones (I did check out the other rookies from time to time)

Sidenote: Appears DJ Chark took the step we were hoping for Christian Kirk.

 

[DVontel]

1. People are begging to take a WR in the top 10. Needing a CeeDee Lamb or Jerry Jeudy to take Kyler to the next level when this roster shouldn't have a hole at WR is the big issue. I'm all for saying KM needs a big guy on the outside with more consistency. Filling it with one of those two players means he needs an elite guy. You guys wanna take a stab in the 2nd or third because Keim sucks and hasn't drafted a decent WR in years? I'm on board. I'm not so much on board when this team is missing starters at 7-9 positions as of today.

2. 25% is fine, and all I meant by "many." But there are a solid amount of QBs in that 25% who went on to struggle through the rest of their careers and are not the solutions for their franchise. Winston being one of them.

3. My only comparison is the play on the field. A phenomenal rookie year, like Baker Mayfield, that did not turn into becoming one of the best QBs in the league, although I bet every Bucs fan thought he would. We can use RG3 for comparison too. Mariota's another. Wentz, Bradford, Cam. All players picked in the top two that had damn good rookie seasons and are now questionable players without winning a championship or maintaining the promise of their rookie season.

4. Let's hope.

The dude just needs to show more to really have arrived. Lots of reasons to be excited about him, but no reason to say he's already locked things down.

Cam has had 3 seasons better than his rookie season....

Wentz’ second season was also A LOT better than his rookie season.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

Edit: Advanced analytics do have their place, but I'm not going to hold advanced analytics numbers over cold, hard, quantitative information.

Sure those are "cold, hard, quantitative" numbers, but they don't give anywhere near the complete story of a QBs overall performance. There is a lot more to being a QB than Passing TDs, YPA, interceptions and completion percentage and that is pretty much all that goes into passer rating.

Also I don't really see how Total QBR isn't also "cold, hard, quantitative" as it uses the same formulas for every player, at least for the raw stat.

 

[SoonerLou]

Sure those are "cold, hard, quantitative" numbers, but they don't give anywhere near the complete story of a QBs overall performance. There is a lot more to being a QB than Passing TDs, YPA, interceptions and completion percentage and that is pretty much all that goes into passer rating.

Yep.

I mean Kyler had a passer rating of 130? against the 49ers. A poster mentinoned well he didn't play well to that #. Its just that Isabella TD really boosted his score. However, with QBR it showed despite that TD and passer rating he didn't play nearly as well against the 49ers. Because it weighted more about the sacks he took and the 3rd downs he didn't convert.

I lean towards QBR, but to each their own.

 

[Solar7]

Cam has had 3 seasons better than his rookie season....

Wentz’ second season was also A LOT better than his rookie season.

Cam might not be the best example, but we are sitting here with him at the age of 30 genuinely questioning if he's going to play again as a Panther. He hasn't won a championship. He's suffered a lot of injuries.

Wentz has still fallen off a cliff because of injuries and such. He's not a top 10 QB in the league by any measure, and is drawing people to question if he should consider retirement. All of the potential and short bursts of good play don't matter if they're both inconsistent and he can't ever be relied on to play a full season.

Sure those are "cold, hard, quantitative" numbers, but they don't give anywhere near the complete story of a QBs overall performance. There is a lot more to being a QB than Passing TDs, YPA, interceptions and completion percentage and that is pretty much all that goes into passer rating.

Also I don't really see how Total QBR isn't also "cold, hard, quantitative" as it uses the same formulas for every player, at least for the raw stat.

I'll admit I could be wrong here, but raw QBR takes into account "expected points added," which is a pretty qualitative stat, given that no route is always exactly the same, and adjusts for "garbage time," which is an unclear moment in a game. When does garbage time end and a comeback begin? When Kyler was down 24-9 in the first game, was that adjusted for garbage time, or did it change because we made a comeback? If we had missed the Zane Gonzales field goal in the 4th and lost by 3, would it have still been garbage time?

There's other examples, but still.

 

[GatorAZ]

What about turnovers?

He fumbled 13 times this year and 19 times at Duke. He’s got weak hands and needs to double-glove it. No shame in it after Kurt... If NYG was picking #1 they’d pass on Burrow or trade out.