Everything wrong with Kyler vs Seattle Part II - Revenge of the checkdown

daves

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In fairness to Brit, he's assuming that the ball warps from the QB's hand directly to the receivers, so therefore "Open" makes sense. Unfortunately, here in the real world, that's not how passes work.
Sounds as though you're assuming that Murray has to see the receiver open before he throws the ball, and is incapable of throwing with anticipation. Which, frankly and sadly, has mostly been true this season. But he did demonstrate that requisite ability of an NFL QB in the past.

...dave
 

daves

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Murray is completing over 70% of his passes, with 6 touchdowns & 2 picks since Hop got back.
Add others have said, it's easy to complete 70% when you seldom throw downfield... And Murray's downfield completion rate is horrible this season.

But that's not my main point. I don't recall people complaining about a huge number of ineffective WR screens during the first 7 games last season.

Whatever happened to Murray half way through last season that caused his performance to plummet and many of his positives (deep balls, tight window throws, etc.) to turn into negatives... I wonder whether Kingsbury is calling all the infuriating screens in order to give Murray a play that he can complete successfully in hopes of at least getting a few yards and a positive play.

Kingsbury often talks of trying to get Murray into a rhythm and build his confidence. Since Murray started struggling throwing downfield, even when multiple receivers are open, it's gotta be bad for Murray's confidence.

(Sadly, the WR screens have become so ineffective that many of them are negative plays as well, thus defeating the purpose.)

I'm just trying to make some sense of the fact that surely Kingsbury and every other coach on the team can see as clearly as we all do that the screens suck. But at least they're boosting Murray's completion percentage.

...dave
 
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jf-08

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I think everyone defending Kyler really needs to watch this.

And before anyone says it the Miami O line is not good.

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This is impossible, trickery, and the video must be edited. Defensive backs are in the area and picked those passes off because there's no way that even a competent QB could make those throws. Didn't you see the DBs lurking in the area????
 

DaHilg

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Add others have said, it's easy to complete 70% when you seldom throw downfield... And Murray's downfield completion rate is horrible this season.

But that's not my main point. I don't recall people complaining about a huge number of ineffective WR screens during the first 7 games last season.

Whatever happened to Murray half way through last season that caused his performance to plummet and many ohis positives (deep balls, tight window throws, etc.) to turn into negatives... I wonder whether Kingsbury is calling all the infuriating screens in order to give Murray a play that he can complete successfully in hopes of at least getting a few yards and a in positive play.

Kingsbury often talks of trying to get Murray into a rhythm and build his confidence. Since Murray started struggling throwing downfield, even when multiple receivers are open, it's gotta be bad for Murray's confidence.

(Sadly, the WR screens have become so ineffective that many of them are negative plays as well, thus defeating the purpose. I'm just trying to make some sense of the fact that surely Kingsbury and every other coach on the team can see as clearly as we all do that the screens suck. But at least they're boosting Murray's completion percentage.)

...dave
Dave there’s no sense in it.. WR screens are a big part of the air raid system.. as is “rhythm” .. as is outpacing and exhausting a defense which sure you can do at a college level but not at the pro level (you do that by pounding the rock). I actually think at the pro level it makes it less exhausting for the defense as the routes are so predictable the DBs just literally sit on them and there isn’t this cushion you’d see by offenses threatening to throw down the field - esp with inability to do so w the non existent protection.
 

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More people don’t do it because throws of 5 yards don’t win football games.
Let’s be honest lots of QBs throw 5 yarders then the talent turns them into more! It’s not like every QB is routinely throwing only 15 plus yard passes. Problem is our 5yrds usually just get tackled or fall down upon completion, we suck at YAC because our scheme sucks and guys are always sort of covered it seems.
 

Dback Jon

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Let’s be honest lots of QBs throw 5 yarders then the talent turns them into more! It’s not like every QB is routinely throwing only 15 plus yard passes. Problem is our 5yrds usually just get tackled or fall down upon completion, we suck at YAC because our scheme sucks and guys are always sort of covered it seems.
And we don't have blockers in place. How many YAC did the Seahawks/Vikings etc get because they had BLOCKERS out front.

Again, that is ALL on coaching and talent.
 

Red on White

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He won't, but I agree. Kyler needs a teacher, something Kliff clearly isn't...also needs someone to tell it like it is and Kurt fits that mold. Sean payton would work too, even better, doubt Michael throws the money at him it would take though
Agree 100%

Feels like the first step though is that Kyler needs to admit that there is a problem. That there are some shortcomings with his play, preparation or both.

Why these shortcomings still exist and who is to blame I won't get into.

Regardless, Kyler needs to be receptive to help and driven to improve.

It's a fine balance between losing confidence in your abilities by highlighting/focusing on flaws and making shrewd improvements to what you already do well.

I actually wonder if Kyler lacks some inner belief. Is a little bit fragile. In my experience sports people with inner doubts are less receptive to advice and don't seek it out. They feel it is an admission of weakness. See any suggestion as implied criticism. Don't want their lack of knowledge or technique exposed so shy away from encounters that might expose it.

They carry an aura of confidence and even arrogance but this is largely a facade to cover insecurity.

Whereas players who have strong inner belief and trust their abilities have no problem seeking out ways to improve. They can acknowledge a weakness because deep down they know they got game. They can admit they stuffed up in a game and don't need to blame others. They're not desperately trying to claw for respect.

[/amateur psychiatry]
 

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Good points but one of the most misjudged observations watching tape like this is determining where the QB is looking. Unless you can see the eyes (which most defenders can), you have no idea where the QB is looking by head position from a far. The range of sight and intention does not require an obvious head turn, especially if you are determining what the QB was thinking and looking
 

MaoTosiFanClub

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This is impossible, trickery, and the video must be edited. Defensive backs are in the area and picked those passes off because there's no way that even a competent QB could make those throws. Didn't you see the DBs lurking in the area????
It’s funny how you Kliff guys bring up Miami as Tua wasn’t doing none of those good things the last two years under bum Flores and whoever their coordinators were. Near bottom of NFL offense across the board. Tua even benched for Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jacoby Brissett.

Plug in McDaniel and dude is top 5 in the league and Dolphins are rolling. I’m sure you’re also noticing how JD5 is doing having broken free from Herm and is now beating Bama playing for Brian Kelly.

Kliff is not an NFL coach in any capacity. It’s really bizarre that while everybody has acknowledged that Kyler isn’t playing well, just a few guys left who think Kliff the career loser at both levels is somehow putting our players in good positions to succeed. The guy’s teams vary from flat out sucking ass to full on imploding every year of his entire decade-long career yet people defend him like he has something to offer. It’s really strange.
 
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jf-08

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It’s funny how you Kliff guys bring up Miami as Tua wasn’t doing none of those good things the last two years under bum Flores and whoever their coordinators were. Bottom of NFL offense across the board. Tua even benched for Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jacoby Brissett.

Plug in McDaniel and dude is top 5 in the league and Dolphins are rolling. I’m sure you’re also noticing how JD5 is doing having broken free from Herm and is now beating Bama playing for Brian Kelly.
Fyi, I'm not a Kliff guy. I'm in the camp to keep Kyler and get rid of Kliff.
 

reebokalone2001

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That ball to hit Hop in stride would have to go to the left hash, and when ball was released the LB covering Ertz was directly in said thorwing window with eyes on QB. Likely a batted ball or INT without insane touch there. Yes there was 1 on 1 with Anderson up top but with that guy obviously probably a low percentage play.

Also note again interior pressure rushing 4 and deep LB drops.
I agree with what you see, but isn't that why he is paid $45m a year, to make an accurate throw in a tight window? If we only expect him to do the regular stuff that JAG Qb can do, why did we pay him a quarter billion $$?
 

Russ Smith

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After the drive above the Seahawks have a short drive and fail to convert on 4th down. We get the ball back quickly.

This is the first play of the drive. An actual rollout out of under center to pass, and it works well. Kyler has a tonne of time. Just very late on the throw.

Ertz is open forever and screaming for the ball but just comes too late. I've recorded both angles here so you can see.

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The 2nd down play is a designed Kyler run with Conner leading which takes us to 3rd and 4. It should have got more but a bad play by Ford let Shelby Harris get off his block and tackle Kyler.

This is the resulting 3rd down play.

Hopkins is clearly open on the dig but Kyler throws the ball behind him allowing Woolen to make a play. Hopkins reaction says it all. Again both angles here so you can see clearly.

Pause at 22 seconds and you can clearly see how far behind Hopkins it is.

Drive over.

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It was behind but that's NOT what Hopkins was complaining about I pointed it out in the game thread. Woolen grabbed Hopkins hair with his left hand while deflecting the throw with his right, D Hop turned to the refs and complained about that.

Still hard to see but better than the screenshot I posted in the gamethread I froze your video at this point. The right hand had just deflected the ball you can see it falling to the ground and the left hand still has Hop's hair. That's why he was mad he wanted a PI.
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Russ Smith

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This is 4 yards?

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The problem I have on that play is at that moment we have 3 WR's all around the 45 yard line and not that far apart. Woolen is at the 47 yard line and it kind of looks to me like he's daring Kyler to throw to Hop. The first circle is where I think that ball should be thrown, I guess that's Anderson but Anderson is going straight down field to clear the under for Hop except Woolen is as close to that circle as Hop is. Not saying a good QB can't make that throw
 

reebokalone2001

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Yeah the McBride one was the most obvious miss.

The Ertz play-action also probably should've been out sooner but the play design was bad too. Hop should've been a go or post not a hitch to keep safety deep until Kyler had time to finish the bootleg and get into throwing position. Ertz' window when open required across the body throw without feet set. There are guys in the NFL who make that play but not more than a handful. Something to keep safety honest would've been a 'pitch and catch' type play to Ertz for 10. Or if it's a Hop go and safety eyes Ertz underneat Kyler has all day for a 1 on 1 deep ball to Hopkins
I agree with you on the bold text, that will leave the safety to make a decision whether to stay high or come down, which is "eye on the key player's reaction": what Warner is talking about is how QB should make decisions.

There are indeed only a few players who can make the throw across the body without feet set, SADLY, none of them got paid more than Murray. I would believe a $45M/Y QB should be able to make any throw to be worth the money.
 

nashman

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I agree with what you see, but isn't that why he is paid $45m a year, to make an accurate throw in a tight window? If we only expect him to do the regular stuff that JAG Qb can do, why did we pay him a quarter billion $$?
Again this how much he gets paid garbage is not a good argument, QBs get paid slotted so to speak it’s not like they had any choice. Let him hold out or walk then what you look like the cheapest moron organization in the league as most believe and rightfully so he is the biggest talent in the whole damn team! It’s not your money and guys who get big bucks suck all the time it’s professional sports deal with it. People were talking MVP talk when he wasn’t surrounded by trash and was performing well, he didn’t just forget how to play football. Lots of things are creating this whole mess on offense, he is part of it but not the main issue. This team has lots of issues and Kyler should be way down on the list, he is your QB already signed him so need to fix other things that will make the team function period!
 

reebokalone2001

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Again this how much he gets paid garbage is not a good argument, QBs get paid slotted so to speak it’s not like they had any choice. Let him hold out or walk then what you look like the cheapest moron organization in the league as most believe and rightfully so he is the biggest talent in the whole damn team! It’s not your money and guys who get big bucks suck all the time it’s professional sports deal with it. People were talking MVP talk when he wasn’t surrounded by trash and was performing well, he didn’t just forget how to play football. Lots of things are creating this whole mess on offense, he is part of it but not the main issue. This team has lots of issues and Kyler should be way down on the list, he is your QB already signed him so need to fix other things that will make the team function period!
I agree with you that he is already paid so the only thing we can do going forward is to try everything in our power to help him play better, which includes getting better coaching and better players around him.

However, I do not agree with that we had no choice but to sign him. If I was the manager, I would at least let him play out his rookie contract and know what we have in him for sure before I talk with his agent about extension. If he continues to improve and fixes his flaws, it's no problem to pay a higher price for a known commodity. If he doesn't, I will offer a lower number contract and use the money elsewhere to get better players to make up for his flaws. If he doesn't like the number he sees, I will trade him. If he holds out, let him. Then he will lose his own money and the opportunity to get paid. Regardless how talented he thinks he is or he truely is, we need a team player not a spoiled diva on our team.
 

reebokalone2001

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If it were that easy, more people would do it. When your pocket is collapsed as badly as ours routinely is, who have to take what the defense gives you.
I agree, you have to take what the defense gives you. Do you think Kyler is taking what the defense gives him, or taking what the defense baits him?
 

nashman

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Again this how much he gets paid garbage is not a good argument, QBs get paid slotted so to speak it’s not like they had any choice. Let him hold out or walk then what you look like the cheapest moron organization in the league as most believe and rightfully so he is the biggest talent in the whole damn team! It’s not your money and guys who get big bucks suck all the time it’s professional sports deal with it. People were talking MVP talk when he wasn’t surrounded by trash and was performing well, he didn’t just forget how to play football. Lots of things are creating this whole mess on offense, he is part of it but not the main issue. This team has lots of issues and Kyler should be way down on the list, he is your QB already signed him so need to fix other things that will make the team function period!
I agree with you that he is already paid so the only thing we can do going forward is to try everything in our power to help him play better, which includes getting better coaching and better players around him.

However, I do not agree with that we had no choice but to sign him. If I was the manager, I would at least let him play out his rookie contract and know what we have in him for sure before I talk with his agent about extension. If he continues to improve and fixes his flaws, it's no problem to pay a higher price for a known commodity. If he doesn't, I will offer a lower number contract and use the money elsewhere to get better players to make up for his flaws. If he doesn't like the number he sees, I will trade him. If he holds out, let him. Then he will lose his own money and the opportunity to get paid. Regardless how talented he thinks he is or he truely is, we need a team player not a spoiled diva on our team.
Sounds good in theory but doesn’t really work that way. Bidwill didn’t want to be trashed in the media for being cheap with our franchise QB. Kliff is doubted by the league much more than Kyler. Now the other two extensions were freaking moronic no doubt!
 

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No team has top class 3rd string players so with Pugh, Hudson and Hernandez out its no surprise the interior will struggle.

Hollywood is out. Garcia, Hump, Gardeck, Conner, Lawrence, McCoy, Prater, Wesley and Darrel Williams have all missed significant time.

That's not to say this roster is world beating but its at least as good as last year. Any team would struggle with these injuries.

There are definitely things to blame Keim and Kliff for. Putting Hayes on season ending IR was dumb (he's been practicing for weeks). The trades have been garbage. We should never run screens. Our run game is poor.

But for me all that is a side note with good QB play. Good QB play is the most important factor by far.

Its why the contenders are always the teams with the best QBs and teams like the Bengals made the SB.

Bengals is the prime example. Garbage owner/GM and a HC that is chunkier Kliff.
Who decided to bring back the ancient IOL Pugh and Hudson? Who thought that was a good idea? Or re-signing oft-injured Conner, or bringing back the Barbarian, or signing Darrel Williams? Who built the WR room? Oh yeah--Keim did! This roster was not nearly as good as last year, and last year's wasn't good enough for a SB run.

Good QB play would have helped a lot this year. I doubt good QB play would have replicated even our record last year, though. Might have been enough to squeak into the playoffs, but we'll never know.
 

Stout

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Let’s be honest lots of QBs throw 5 yarders then the talent turns them into more! It’s not like every QB is routinely throwing only 15 plus yard passes. Problem is our 5yrds usually just get tackled or fall down upon completion, we suck at YAC because our scheme sucks and guys are always sort of covered it seems.
Ah, so now it's not Checkdown Charlie's fault, it's the WRs, RBs, and TEs at fault. Because no way could it be KM's fault he's checking down all the time.
 

Stout

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Again this how much he gets paid garbage is not a good argument, QBs get paid slotted so to speak it’s not like they had any choice. Let him hold out or walk then what you look like the cheapest moron organization in the league as most believe and rightfully so he is the biggest talent in the whole damn team! It’s not your money and guys who get big bucks suck all the time it’s professional sports deal with it. People were talking MVP talk when he wasn’t surrounded by trash and was performing well, he didn’t just forget how to play football. Lots of things are creating this whole mess on offense, he is part of it but not the main issue. This team has lots of issues and Kyler should be way down on the list, he is your QB already signed him so need to fix other things that will make the team function period!
It's been pointed out by numerous people that the team had several years' control over KM. He literally had no choice in walking--he didn't have the power to do so. He could've tried to hold out, but that wouldn't have gone well for him. Kyler's poor play have more than undermined the idea that signing him to the big deal was a good decision.

Now, I have to agree on your last point, because it's far too cost-prohibitive to get rid of him for a few years. He is already guaranteed to be here, so the team has to do its best to build around him.
 
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Let’s be honest lots of QBs throw 5 yarders then the talent turns them into more! It’s not like every QB is routinely throwing only 15 plus yard passes. Problem is our 5yrds usually just get tackled or fall down upon completion, we suck at YAC because our scheme sucks and guys are always sort of covered it seems.

They do, but they also throw over 10 yards, and some over 20 yards and even, god forbid, some over 40 yards.

When 77% of your passes are 5 yards or less it's incredibly easy to defend.
 
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And we don't have blockers in place. How many YAC did the Seahawks/Vikings etc get because they had BLOCKERS out front.

Again, that is ALL on coaching and talent.

Hopkins turned a 5 yard pass into a 20 yards TD with blockers in front but ok
 
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I actually wonder if Kyler lacks some inner belief.

I think the exact opposite. I think he has two much inner belief from a lifetime of winning and being the star QB.

He's always been the best, therefor it's not him.

The "I don't need to study film too much I just naturally see things" comment was a pure example of that.
 

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