How long until the Suns are back in the playoffs?

[Cheesebeef]

The Suns will be the 5th seed in next season's playoffs.

how will that happen?

 

[AzStevenCal]

how will that happen?

Unfortunately, it could happen pretty easily. This current team, healthy, is probably no worse than the 5th seed. If they keep Brooks and IF his ankle completely heals and IF he can help keep Nash to about 25 minutes per game this group would be pretty effective.

This team would have little or no chance of advancing in the playoffs and it would have zero future but it wouldn't surprise me to see the Suns go this route. I think most of us realize the writing is on the wall about Nash but most of us felt that way the day our power forward walked away and yet the organization still brought him back. I think Sarver views him like Freddy or Jason, it doesn't matter what happened the last time - you can always bring him back again.

Steve

 

[SirStefan32]

how will that happen?

It's not that far-fetched. Trade for Milsap and sign J-Rich, for example, and all of the sudden, this team is probably going to fight for the home-court advantage next year.

Playoffs are easy to get to. Getting there, in and of itself, means nothing to me. Being a contender means something though, and I really don't think the Suns are going to be there for a few years.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Unfortunately, it could happen pretty easily. This current team, healthy, is probably no worse than the 5th seed. If they keep Brooks and IF his ankle completely heals and IF he can help keep Nash to about 25 minutes per game this group would be pretty effective.

i don't see it. "completely healthy" a) isn't going to happen, nash will never be kept at 25 minutes per game in this system and the West powers ahead of us are a) all younger and b) most of them not even playing with a full deck themselves. Memphis will get back Rudy Gay, Dallas will get back Caron Butler, Portland gets a healthier Brandon Roy. Maybe the Hornets stink enough to drop out of the playoffs, but that's about it as far as our best shot to get back there... as a limping old 8 seed. and even that's a stretch. I mean, it's not like we're barely missing the playoffs here this year. we're SEVEN GAMES out of the playoffs. We're a bad, old, injury prone team... that's going to be a year older. That team doesn't somehow leapfrog 6 teams without making a major addition and seeing as we have zero assets to do that, i don't see it.

This team would have little or no chance of advancing in the playoffs and it would have zero future but it wouldn't surprise me to see the Suns go this route. I think most of us realize the writing is on the wall about Nash but most of us felt that way the day our power forward walked away and yet the organization still brought him back. I think Sarver views him like Freddy or Jason, it doesn't matter what happened the last time - you can always bring him back again.

Steve

agreed with above unfortunately.

 

[Cheesebeef]

It's not that far-fetched. Trade for Milsap and sign J-Rich, for example, and all of the sudden, this team is probably going to fight for the home-court advantage next year.

how are they going to do both of these? Who can they possibly trade for Milsap? and are they really going to fork out 8 million bucks a year for J Rich?

and even if they did the above... yay... we're a one and done 5 seed and then EVEN MORE CAPPED OUT for the future. talk about an exercise in futility the above would be.

 

[Mainstreet]

That is extremely debatable..

Dwight Howard
Andrew Bogut
Joakim Noah
Andrew Bynum
Nene
Tim Duncan
Al Horford (though he would prefer to play PF)

Ok that is 7 centers absolutely unquestionably better than Gortat.

Brook Lopez
Chris Kaman
Marc Gasol
Javale McGee (quickly rising)
Greg Oden(easily in the top group when healthy)
DeMarcus Cousins
Emeka Okafor

I would have to say that this group of 7 is better than Gortat.

Samuel Dalembert
Tyson Chandler
Kendrick Perkins
Roy Hibbert
DeAndre Jordan (one of the most sought after free agents I would say, has enough potential to get in the top 7)
Marcin Gortat

I'd say Gortat is in the 15-21 range in terms of best centers and that is based on 3 months. So he is pretty much average. And that is no an unfair assessment. Saying Gortat is a top 10 center is absolutely pushing it. The best thing about Gortat is probably his contract but he is not a top center.

If we are talking about true centers, Duncan is not a center nor is Horford although he gets forced to play center. How you can put Oden in there is beyond me. You might as well put in Yao Ming. Also one needs to consider that only recently did Gortat become a starting center and one needs to evaluate his upgraded stats than when he played behind Dwight Howard.

 

[slinslin]

Plus Millsap wouldn't put us in the playoff picture anyway. He was on a better Utah team with Deron Williams and they weren't good enough.

Plus we are not getting Millsap for free.

Plus Millsap is a 6'7-6'8 SF masquerading as PF.

That would be a nightmare. A gimmick one and done team AT BEST.

Replacing Vince with JRich won't make us suddenly much better either. JRich was inconsistant too. before we made that trade we already sucked.

Also Nash and Hill will be even older but you still expect the same from them? Face reality they will level off eventually.

 

[slinslin]

If we are talking about true centers, Duncan is not a center nor is Horford although he gets forced to play center. How you can put Oden in there is beyond me. You might as well put in Yao Ming. Also one needs to consider that only recently did Gortat become a starting center and one needs to evaluate his upgraded stats than when he played behind Dwight Howard.

That does not make his per minute stats better and whether he starts or not he played the same minutes before.

And obviously Duncan is a center no matter if he likes it being called that or not. He fills those needs for the Spurs.

Anyway you can't have it both ways because Al Horford and Al Jefferson DO play center and they are both obviously better than Gortat. Besides all that Horford is just barely smaller than Gortat.

I could have added more players that could play center and are better than Gortat, for example Aldridge.

Also because Yao and Oden are injured doesn't make Gortat better. Talent wise those players are ahead of him so really he is just in the #15-20 range.

Ask neutral NBA fans where they rank Gortat. I bet less than 0.1% would rank Gortat in the top 10, less than 5% would rank him in the top 15.

 

[Mainstreet]

Plus Millsap is a 6'7-6'8 SF masquerading as PF.

I guess you think the same about Boozer.

 

[slinslin]

I guess you think the same about Boozer.

How are the 2 even comparable? Boozer is bigger , stronger and bangs down low.

Millsap is none of that. Millsap shoots 3s and jumpers and doesn't play in the post because he is undersized. He averages under 8rpg and under 1 bpg in more than 34mpg.

If you wanted to make an argument you should have said Shawn Marion because Millsap is much closer to that than he ever will be to Carlos Boozer.

 

[SirStefan32]

Yeah, you're right Slin. We should just trade everyone we have for 12 draft picks and have a team of rookies next year. That will definitely be better than Milsap and J-Rich.
Wonder what their +/- will look like.

 

[Mainstreet]

How are the 2 even comparable? Boozer is bigger , stronger and bangs down low.

Millsap is none of that. Millsap shoots 3s and jumpers and doesn't play in the post because he is undersized. He averages under 8rpg and under 1 bpg in more than 34mpg.

Only this season did Millsap develop an outside jump shot. Millsap is a banger as is Boozer. Both fell to the second round because of a perceived lack of height.

 

[slinslin]

Yeah, you're right Slin. We should just trade everyone we have for 12 draft picks and have a team of rookies next year. That will definitely be better than Milsap and J-Rich.
Wonder what their +/- will look like.

That would be a ton better than comitting to long term contracts for players that will never make the difference thus steering us deeper and deeper into mediocrity and salary cap hell.

 

[slinslin]

Only this season did Millsap develop an outside jump shot. Millsap is a banger as is Boozer. Both fell to the second round because of a perceived lack of height.

Boozer fell because of his BMI.

Ever thought about why Utah is entertaining trading Millsap? Oh right because he is an undersized tweener and neither management nor fans believe he can make the switch to SF.

A team with Shawn Marion, Paul Millsap or Josh Smith at PF and Gortat at C will never be good enough unless you have SG on the level of Michael Jordan or Kobe Bryant to compensate for the lack of post-up game or you would need a center of the caliber of Dwight Howard, Olajuwon, Duncan or Shaq..

 

[SirStefan32]

how are they going to do both of these? Who can they possibly trade for Milsap? and are they really going to fork out 8 million bucks a year for J Rich?

and even if they did the above... yay... we're a one and done 5 seed and then EVEN MORE CAPPED OUT for the future. talk about an exercise in futility the above would be.

I don't disagree that we'd be one-and-done with Milsap and J-Rich. I am just saying that being a 5th seed is not really all that far-fetched.

Sarver forked out almost 8M per year for Chilli and Frye, so I think he'd fork out that much for J-Rich. He's not cheap, he is just not very good at evaluating talent.

As far as Milsap goes, I am not sure exactly what we would trade to get him. I seem to recall some deadline rumors about us almost trading for him though, so I am sure something could be worked out.

 

[Mainstreet]

Boozer fell because of his BMI.

Ever thought about why Utah is entertaining trading Millsap? Oh right because he is an undersized tweener and neither management nor fans believe he can make the switch to SF.

A team with Shawn Marion, Paul Millsap or Josh Smith at PF and Gortat at C will never be good enough unless you have SG on the level of Michael Jordan or Kobe Bryant to compensate for the lack of post-up game or you would need a center of the caliber of Dwight Howard, Olajuwon, Duncan or Shaq..

You are way underestimating Millsap as a player. He is a very good banger and now has a good outside shot. Utah is blessed with quality big men which makes him expendable especially for a center. As I understand it, the Suns were trying to get Utah to bite on a trade package including Lopez.

 

[slinslin]

I don't disagree that we'd be one-and-done with Milsap and J-Rich. I am just saying that being a 5th seed is not really all that far-fetched.

Sarver forked out almost 8M per year for Chilli and Frye, so I think he'd fork out that much for J-Rich. He's not cheap, he is just not very good at evaluating talent.

As far as Milsap goes, I am not sure exactly what we would trade to get him. I seem to recall some deadline rumors about us almost trading for him though, so I am sure something could be worked out.

We don't have that capspace and JRich is over 30 he doesn't deserve that contract.

The Suns would be better off signing Nick Young or JR Smith than JRich.

Also just because someone spend last year doesn't mean he would do it again. Luxury tax, new CBA, total payroll etc..

And last but not least, you think we can jump to 5th place? I bet you Utah, Minnesota, Clippers, Golden State, Sacramento are thinking they can just as easily leapfrog our old team with improvment from their young guys and a good FA signing and draft pick.

You seem to think we would improve that much more than the other teams to jump that high in the standing while having absolutely NONE young talent that you could expect improvements from and key players that are 38 year old.

It's called delusional. And even if by an unbelievable amount of luck and circumstances we get the #5th seed and a playoff sweep in round 1 what does that help us? Nash and Hill would be almost 40 and then we are stuck with STILL NO TALENT on the roster and a bunch of role player tying up all of our salary cap (Gortat, Frye, Warrick, Childress, Dudley and ugh Brooks, JRich, Millsap in your scenario however we could even get millsap probably giving up draft picks again).

Not only that we wouldn't have salary cap space, we would have no trade assets except for maybe a medium sized expiring contract, our future picks because would be horrible and no star player would want to come to a team that has nothing to offer except a few role players.

 

[slinslin]

You are way underestimating Millsap as a player. He is a very good banger and now has a good outside shot. Utah is blessed with quality big men which makes him expendable especially for a center. As I understand it, the Suns were trying to get Utah to bite on a trade package including Lopez.

utah does not need a center.

Al Jefferson is their center and he wants to stay at center. They also have Okur still who would probably get healthy again sometime.

What does it tell us that the Suns "tried" to get Millsap? That they were desperate. Just look at the Brooks deal... awful.

 

[SirStefan32]

Only this season did Millsap develop an outside jump shot. Millsap is a banger as is Boozer. Both fell to the second round because of a perceived lack of height.

He is not a 19 year-old rookie, therefore he is not good enough for Slin.

 

[AzStevenCal]

i don't see it. "completely healthy" a) isn't going to happen, nash will never be kept at 25 minutes per game in this system and the West powers ahead of us are a) all younger and b) most of them not even playing with a full deck themselves. Memphis will get back Rudy Gay, Dallas will get back Caron Butler, Portland gets a healthier Brandon Roy. Maybe the Hornets stink enough to drop out of the playoffs, but that's about it as far as our best shot to get back there... as a limping old 8 seed. and even that's a stretch. I mean, it's not like we're barely missing the playoffs here this year. we're SEVEN GAMES out of the playoffs. We're a bad, old, injury prone team... that's going to be a year older. That team doesn't somehow leapfrog 6 teams without making a major addition and seeing as we have zero assets to do that, i don't see it.

I don't think you can look at our current position and our current performance level and extrapolate anything. Nash has been average to sub-par since the all star break (just like last year) and Frye went out for several critical games due to injury. Frye is no world beater but when your backup is Warrick, Channing becomes indispensable. Prior to those injuries, we were playing pretty good basketball.

Your point that we won't be healthy is probably true but we COULD be healthy enough to play all season at the level we played going into the break this year. In our favor is that Brooks won't always be the shell of the player he's capable of being and we shouldn't have any problem improving at the 2 spot. Working against us is Nash and Hill getting one year older and other teams poised to make even greater improvements.

Taking all this into consideration, I think it's quite feasible that we could finish at or near the 5th seed next season. As I said though, it's a horrible decision. The only thing that would be even worse than making it to the 5 seed next year is to bring back this core and fail to make the playoffs. Unfortunately, as you've pointed out, with our injury risks and age issues, that's also quite possible.

Steve

 

[slinslin]

He is not a 19 year-old rookie, therefore he is not good enough for Slin.

No, but he can't be a long-term solution at PF for any good team. On a good team he is a 6th man ala Rodney Rogers. We are far from that we don't need any more role players, we need a star better yet 2-3 before we can ever compete with the other top teams who all have 2,3 or even 4 stars.

 

[slinslin]

I don't think you can look at our current position and our current performance level and extrapolate anything. Nash has been average to sub-par since the all star break (just like last year) and Frye went out for several critical games due to injury. Frye is no world beater but when your backup is Warrick, Channing becomes indispensable. Prior to those injuries, we were playing pretty good basketball.

Your point that we won't be healthy is probably true but we COULD be healthy enough to play all season at the level we played going into the break this year. In our favor is that Brooks won't always be the shell of the player he's capable of being and we shouldn't have any problem improving at the 2 spot. Working against us is Nash and Hill getting one year older and other teams poised to make even greater improvements.

Taking all this into consideration, I think it's quite feasible that we could finish at or near the 5th seed next season. As I said though, it's a horrible decision. The only thing that would be even worse than making it to the 5 seed next year is to bring back this core and fail to make the playoffs. Unfortunately, as you've pointed out, with our injury risks and age issues, that's also quite possible.

Steve

And the teams below us who have much more youth and talent are NOT going to get better?

But our 37 years old PG and 37 yeard old SF will magically have a better season than he had this year which was already shocking?

Yeah right... very likely.

The trend of the Suns clearly points down, not up and there are teams ahead of us and below us who can expect much more improvement than we could ever hope for from our roster.

 

[AzStevenCal]

And the teams below us who have much more youth and talent are NOT going to get better?

But our 37 years old PG and 37 yeard old SF will magically have a better season than he had this year which was already shocking?

Yeah right... very likely.

The trend of the Suns clearly points down, not up and there are teams ahead of us and below us who can expect much more improvement than we could ever hope for from our roster.

Did you just guess what I was saying? First off, somewhere in my post I acknowledged that other teams were poised to make even greater improvements. Secondly, you responded as if I were advocating keeping this group together. I have been adamant about going away from Nash for quite some time now. I just think it's quite possible this group could put together one more weak-assed run to the playoffs and that management might be stupid enough to do just that. I don't want to see it happen but I didn't want to see it happen this season either.

Steve

 

[slinslin]

Yeah but we are not going to get close to a #5 seed. Best case would be another struggle to stay at .500 and then finishing #8 or against with a #13-14 pick in the lottery.. We are going to be better than either the Lakers, Spurs, Mavs, Thunder, Nuggets or Blazers? No freaking way. Memphis is ahead of us, can expect lots of improvement from players like Conley, Mayo, Arthur etc.. and get Gay back.. Houston is ahead of us and has tons of young talent and might get Ming back.. Utah is the better team as well with Okur and 2 lottery picks.

People cry about Kareem and David Robinson and never having a #1 pick. Well guess what if you rather play for the #8 seed every year instead of accepting 2-3 years at the bottom before getting back it is obvious you have little chance to have a #1 pick to draft Shaq, Duncan, Lebron, Howard, Rose etc..

 

[Cheesebeef]

I don't think you can look at our current position and our current performance level and extrapolate anything. Nash has been average to sub-par since the all star break (just like last year) and Frye went out for several critical games due to injury. Frye is no world beater but when your backup is Warrick, Channing becomes indispensable. Prior to those injuries, we were playing pretty good basketball.

we had one nice little streak when we had complete health and we were barely beating the dregs of the league and losing to every good team we played (celtics being the exception) but the idea that injuries derailed us doesn't hold a lot of water for me. The Blazers had huge injuries and maintained the course, the Hornets lost their second best player and will finish way ahead of us, the Grizzlies lost their BEST player and kept on winning... and those are all the teams right in front of us. They all had injuries to either their best player or 2nd best player and stayed the course. Why? because they're better than us... period. with or without major stars that were lost. Hell, up and down the Western Conference, teams lost huge players - the Lakers lost their starting C for 25 games, the Mavs lost their second best player for half the season, the Nuggets traded their best two players... they all found a way to either weather the storm or get better. we use one five game stretch as an excuse that derailed our season. The bottom line is there's just not much talent on this team... period.

Your point that we won't be healthy is probably true but we COULD be healthy enough to play all season at the level we played going into the break this year. In our favor is that Brooks won't always be the shell of the player he's capable of being and we shouldn't have any problem improving at the 2 spot. Working against us is Nash and Hill getting one year older and other teams poised to make even greater improvements.

Taking all this into consideration, I think it's quite feasible that we could finish at or near the 5th seed next season. As I said though, it's a horrible decision. The only thing that would be even worse than making it to the 5 seed next year is to bring back this core and fail to make the playoffs. Unfortunately, as you've pointed out, with our injury risks and age issues, that's also quite possible.

Steve

i just don't see it.