I agree with everything you said, Stout.
What frustrates me about so many posters on this board is their preoccupation with name players and geeky stats---while being ignorant of two key facts:
1. The NFL Draft, propagandized and over-hyped by all of its so-called expert pundits, is one of the most inexact sciences in all of sports. It's laughable as to how incorrect so many of the pundits and the draft choices are.
For example---Jamell Fleming was one of the top 5 CBs taken in the 2012 draft (Rd. 3 #80) and right now he's getting his arse handed to him and beaten out badly by a 6th rounder named Justin Bethel (#177).
2. Players actually improve from year to year---to judge any player strictly on his rookie year is just plain ignorant.
For example---Stevie Breatson couldn't catch a cold as a WR his rookie year. He sucks, right?
As you said, the eye test is the test that matters, Stout.
Where you're mistaken is taking the talking head draft pundits at their opinion. Guys like Mayock, Kiper, and McShay are all about hype and trying to get web clicks and page views.
The reason you'll see a guy like Bethel may overtake a guy like Fleming is the overall grade from a 3rd round pick to 6th round pick is not as great as you'd think.
However, the grades of going the difference from a first or second rounder to the sixth or seventh is significant. That being said, players are pretty much drafted where they deserve to be drafted. There's a reason Nate Potter was a 7th round pick and Levi was a top 10.
Obviously there are misses and guys perform way above expectations, like Warner and Brady, but those are the rare exceptions and if you look over history, the "hit %" of players follows where they were drafted.
Potter may make it, and I hope he does, but people tend to overrate and root for the underdog while being more critical of the higher drafted player. It's nice to root for guys like Fred Wakefield and rip on a Leonard Davis. But give me an OL with 5 Davis's versus 5 Wakefield's and I'll beat you about every time, even if you're guys try harder and exceed expectation.
You mention Breaston. He had one good year when he was the 3rd option and defenses concentrated on Fitz and Boldin (when he played). Breaston would have struggled mightily had he been the #1 option and gone against #1 CB's. Bottom line is talent wins out 95 time out of 100 and guys are drafted based on talent expectations.
