Round Two: Mavs vs. Suns

[Chaz]

Should be a very entertaining series.

I think the Suns win in 6 games. The Suns have to control the glass and keep Dallas out of the paint and they will be ok. If Dallas gets Phoenix in foul trouble or gets too many opportunities inside(offensive rebounds) then the Suns could struggle.

Suns have to come out and protect the home court. If Dallas comes in and gets a split the series very likely goes 7 games.



Welcome to the board Dtown.

 

[TopGamer]

On ESPN.com the three analysts picked the Suns to win this series. Stein predicted the Suns to win in 5, the other two (Ford and Hollinger) predicted them to win in 6 and 7, respectively.

 

[arthurracoon]

Steve Kerr picks the Suns in 7

 

[DtownsFinest]

Welcome to the board Dtown.

Thanks for the welcome.



Honestly though the prediction that the Suns will beat the Mavs this series isn't far off. I have to honestly wait and see how we contain the Suns on Monday. If Dirk continues his struggles I just don't like our chances. I said that this series and we managed to pull it out but this is the Suns we are talking about.

 

[Chaplin]

I can't wait! This has the potential to be the most entertaining series of the playoffs so far. Might even be the most entertaining period.

 

[Amare32]

the ESPN experts have all picked Suns over Dallas

1 picked in 6
1 picked in 7
1 picked in 5

 

[Chaz]

Dallas is such a dangerous team. They have athletes, good chemistry, and some size. They will provide a real test for the Suns. The Grizz were in disarray and slumping, halfway through game three that series was over. The Mavs will be confident if tired coming into game 1. The Suns just need to control the glass and force their tempo. The Mavs should be worn out by the 4th.

The coaching matchup will be an interesting one. I haven't seen enough of the Mavs to form an opinion on AJ yet.

Changes from the regular season meetings put the improved health of the Mavericks (Dampier, Terry) against the bench play of the Suns (Hunter, Jackson). I like the matchups for the Suns starters and they don't leave the game much. If these playoff game are as exciting as the regular season games it should be a great playoff series.

 

[PhxGametime]

Respect to Dallas, I've been talking to some of their fans and some of them are pretty cool but IMO the Suns are better at each position (match-up wise) and team wise - well the Suns did have the best record in the League. Jason Terry and Devin Harris are about the only PG's in Playoffs that Barbosa can handle and give solid minutes to the team. I expect Stoudemire to average 30 PTS/game and outside of another poor officiating contest again I like the Suns chances.


Suns in 4.

 

[RocketMan]

Ok, let me start out by saying I’m, of course, a Rockets fan living in Houston. I just began trolling your message board and, I must say, I’m really impressed. I see good analysis and a solid dose of objectivity, which is rare (and I include Houston in that as well). Of course, a certain sense of ‘homerism’ is expected (heck, we’re FANS, right?), but I just wanted to commend you guys on a really cool site.



We wish WE were getting ready for tomorrow night’s game, but we couldn’t hold up our end of the deal.



For what it’s worth, here’s my 2 cents on the teams:

• Jason Terry absolutely lit us up. Of course, we don’t have a true point guard, and it freaking showed. Nash is who we feel is the prototypical point. He not only controls tempo but can put the opposing PG on their heels by applying offensive pressure. But most importantly, he puts his teammates in a position on the court to succeed. This, IMO, can’t be overstated. He has tremendous court vision and passing skills and knows how to catch his teammates ‘in rhythm’. I could only DREAM about how much better he would make Yao. Throughout the season, Yao (who has to deal with so much criticism and pressure from us already) would routinely fight for position and have his man sealed only to see Sura or Mike James look him off and swing the ball to the opposite side. To us, somebody like Nash would KNOW how important it is for a player like Yao to get touches…but not just any touches. I mean the subtle difference between a player like Sura who routinely made a low entry pass where Yao could get it stripped when the quick double came, as opposed to Nash who would make sure Yao received the ball chest high away from the side the defender played him on. These are just little things that Nash does so well for ya’ll.
• Dallas fans complained all series about Dirk not getting off and only shooting 35%. Much of that was T-Mac’s defense making Dirk uncomfortable on certain parts of the floor. Marion should do at least that well on him. His length and defensive ability should give Dirk fits.
• We had to listen to Erik Freaking Dampier proclaim himself before the series to be the ‘best center in the West’. He averaged 6pts, 6rbs, and .75 blocks against Yao. Meanwhile, Yao hit him up for 21, 8, and 3 while shooting something like 65% from the field. Amare should have him fouled out by halftime. Dampier does give them a low post ‘presence’, but I don’t expect him to be much of a factor by the time the series is over. And, in the immortal words of Forrest Gump, “…that’s all I have to sa-ay a-bout tha-at”.
• I really like how Joe Johnson and Richardson know their roles on the Suns team and can step up when needed. Also, Jimmy Jackson was a fan favorite here in Houston before we traded him earlier in the season. We hated to see him go but David Wesley fit our system a little better. Jackson is a really good guy and will provide some veteran leadership and poise.

I’m really looking forward to this series, but I expect it to only go 5. I see the Suns holding court, then taking one in Dallas, and finishing it off in game 5.

Good luck, guys!

 

[sly fly]

My predictions and keys to the series...

Suns in 5.

I don't see PHX losing another road game for awhile. Their lone loss will come at home.

Amare will emerge in this series as the dominant force who completely undresses the Mavs. Who's going to guard him? Once Amare gets going, 3's are going to be raining down on Cuban's head.

The only chance the Mavs have is to somehow keep pace with the tempo and shoot a great FG%. Name one team who's been able to do this all year long?

- Not having Keith Van Horn will hurt the one valuable commodity Dallas had: their depth.

- Jason Terry is peaking, and is sure to cause problems for Nash. If Jason Terry is the Mavs leading scorer... that's fine with me.

- Shawn Marion has a big challenge ahead in trying to keep Dirk from getting started. That will defintely be a big factor whether this goes 4-5 games or 6-7 games.

- I'm expecting PHX to come out on fire tomorrow night, with a possible let down in the 2nd quarter. If this happens, it will be a matter of time before they get their legs back.

- I'm ready for this to get started. For me, I'm all in. Second place is for losers. I'll be big-time disappointed with anything less than the World Championship. Times like this don't come around too often (or, maybe they will)... so let's hope they get it done.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Rockets perimeter defenders are better than the Suns right? All i'm saying is watch out for Terry. Not saying he's gonna do good or great but who knows. Just have to wait and see for myself.

actually, i wouldn't agree with that statement. both jj and marion are superb defenders and q is not terrible. nash is not great. other than mcgrady, when he wants to, no one on the rockets is a great individual defender. jon barry? the other white dude (who always has a black eye)? naw.

gonna be a great series. i fully expect a heart attack. suns in 7.

 

[elindholm]

I had Phoenix in six over Memphis, which proved to be too conservative, so I'll err on the side of ambition this time and take the Suns in five.

 

[arthurracoon]

WELCOME Rocketman!

 

[arthurracoon]

BTW, I'll take Suns in 6.

I think Dirk will continue to struggle when going up against Marion.

Unfortunately, I see NO way in which Nash will be able to stop Terry.

Dallas's two wins will come when they are making their shots (Finley, etc...)

 

[F-Dog]

Dallas is a good team. Here's how I see the matchups:


Nash vs. Terry--advantage, Dallas

The Mavs are going to go after Nash big-time. Terry is going to light him up like a Christmas tree; Nash has to play through it and not try to get into a scoring battle with JET. Nash's influence will be in helping the other players win their matchups.

Joe Johnson vs. Finley--advantage, Phoenix

I expect Joe Johnson to guard a number of players, fighting fires all along the perimeter, so to speak. Finley will mostly be catching and shooting--and making, if history is any guide--but Joe J is playing very well right now and is the more dangerous threat on offense.

Q vs. Josh Howard--no advantage

The two X-factors. I expect Howard to be open all series as the Suns park Amare or Nash on him on occasion and help off him the rest of the time. The Suns will make Howard prove he can repeatedly hit that 20-foot shot.

Marion vs. Nowitzki--no advantage

I'm going with my eyes here, not reputation. Marion has upped his defense and his contributions in the playoffs, while Nowitzki has struggled and looked tired. Nowitzki can't be looking forward to seeing Marion again after the trouble Marion caused him in the regular season.

Amare vs. Dampier--ouch!

This is where Avery Johnson will have to earn his money in this series. Every time Amare steps onto the court and doesn't completely disrupt the Mavericks' defense, AJ should get his own Dairy Queen franchise; on the flip side, every time a Mavericks fan says, "what were they thinking trading away Calvin Booth?", AJ should lose a dollar. His goal will be to break even.

Bench--advantage, Mavericks

The Suns can compete with the Mavs at 6th and 7th man, but after that it's no contest. It will be interesting to see how much time Barbosa gets in this series; I imagine the Suns will start out with Joe J backing up Nash again, and it will be up to the Mavericks to force the Suns' hand by attacking their ball-handling.

Coaching--advantage, Suns

D'Antoni completely undressed Mike Fratello in the first series, while Avery Johnson had a little trouble. I expect D'Antoni will prove to be the better tactician here.

Prediction--Suns in 6

I like the Suns here, but I don't have a good feel for how the series will go; both teams are good road teams but occasionally struggle at home. I think that game 1 is almost a must-win for Dallas--they'll have momentum and confidence from the end of the last series, while the Suns will be rusty and out of kilter. As the series wears on, though, the Suns' fresh legs should give them the advantage.

 

[Chaplin]

These comparisons are pretty good from everyone, but I am very surprised that so many of you think JT is going to "light up" Nash. Don't underestimate how we take a team out of their game on the offensive end. Sure, Nash's defense isn't the greatest, but our team perimeter defense is very good, whereas Houston's definitely was not (especially when David Wesley is your best perimeter defender). JT was getting open looks all the time. That's not going to happen with the Suns, where Amare near the top of the key throwing picks and JJ is hounding Finley. I like JT (I played with him at UofA), but he's a) not consistent enough, and b) not going to able to get open looks all series like he did against Houston.

As for the bench issue, don't be so sure their's is going to be so much better. They're missing their 2nd best player off the bench... and Hunter is better in these playoffs than any of their backup big men. The real issue will be Stackhouse, but hopefully JJ2 negates that. And Barbosa will definitely get some time in this series, most likely when Darrell Armstrong is in the game. I don't think Devin Harris or Marquis Daniels will have much of an effect in any of the games.

 

[F-Dog]

Terry is a nightmare matchup for Nash because he can use a pick, pull up and shoot off the dribble. Think Jason Williams in the last series, or worse, Baron Davis in a Golden State uniform.

Terry's going to have trouble with the P&R on the other end, but he'll be the Suns' biggest problem when he's got the ball in his hands.

 

[Chaplin]

Terry is a nightmare matchup for Nash because he can use a pick, pull up and shoot off the dribble. Think Jason Williams in the last series, or worse, Baron Davis in a Golden State uniform.

Terry's going to have trouble with the P&R on the other end, but he'll be the Suns' biggest problem when he's got the ball in his hands.

Remember that Terry isn't the greatest ball handler though--Jason Williams is much better.

 

[cly2tw]

I hate to repeat myself, but as a fan I got to say something when it's most interesting for the team.

Most of our "big" losses during the season were due to one single reason, we ran ourselves into ground and got beat by deeper benches of the opposing teams. In other words, they outran us wiht fresh legs in the fourth and overtime. From the huge amount of freethrows in the Mem series, we know that the games were slowed down considerably. And with our underrated halfcourt offense and fastbreaks when the chance offered itself, our superior overall talent with the 7 men rotation had no problem to prevail.

The same thing will be true for all the coming games. If the Mavs keep the speed up, the series becomes an open one, since the bench depth might become important and though our first 7 are better than Mavs', their next 3, Henderson/KVH/Harris (after the first two subs in Stackhouse and Daniels) are much better than ours, LB/McCarthy/Jake. So, our best chance is NOT to try to outrun them, but to fastbreak whenever possible yet not hurry in halfcourt sets. This way, particularly Nash, or actually important only regarding him, will have fresh legs for the 4th. And if this happens, or the Mavs try to slow it down, then I see Suns win out in 5.

 

[Chaplin]

Hopefully, they won't have Van Horn back until game 3 or 4, so we need to really take care of business at home.

 

[AZZenny]

Well, there's a little more motivation, if some was lacking... Barkley hemmed and hawed and gee whiz, much as he loves his hometown team, he's just gotta pick the Mavs to win.

Is it possible to yank him out of the Ring of Honor?

 

[asudevil83]

if terry starts going off on the suns, then i wouldnt be suprised to see JJ guard terry during certain stretches, and definately when nash is out of the game.

as far as damp goes....i honestly think he wont be much of a factor. this guy deserves to have his ass handed to him via amare. i know he'll be more effective this series, grabbing A LOT more rebounds....but him guarding amare will be a joke.

 

[Chaz]

Well, there's a little more motivation, if some was lacking... Barkley hemmed and hawed and gee whiz, much as he loves his hometown team, he's just gotta pick the Mavs to win.

Is it possible to yank him out of the Ring of Honor?

Barkley has been down on the Suns all year. Since they are winning and swept the first round he likes to say "my Suns" now, but he is convinced, and has been saying for a while, that the Suns cannot win in the playoffs.

Just another non-believer.

 

[playstation]

Nash vs. Terry--advantage, Dallas

FDog, I know you're trying to be objective here, but imo as a general rule, no league MVP should be at a disadvantage to a non-allstar. the best terry can hope for is a draw, but to say nash will be outplayed, and badly to boot, is to disrespect nash's talent.

that being said, i say this series goes the distance, and i don't like picking winners in game 7...

 

[elindholm]

I'm with Chaplin in being not especially afraid of Terry. I didn't watch any of the Dallas/Houston series, so maybe I don't appreciate how great Terry has been recently. But his reputation is one of being streaky and not an especially effective facilitator for his teammates -- a poor man's Stephon Marbury, if you will. If he stays hot, that's too bad, but he probably won't for seven games.

I expect Joe Johnson to guard a number of players

Steve Nash will guard a number of players also. The number just happens to be zero.