Since I Promised My Round 1 Preferred Selection

[dreamcastrocks]

I want you guys to think long & hard about this & see if you REALLY agree with it:


“I want to draft a guy with our first round pick that we will have to sub out on 3rd downs, sometimes even 2nd & long, because he doesn’t offers much in the passing game. Arguably playing only half the snaps on defense. THAT is who I want to spend our *first* round pick on”.

I agree with it 100%. I'd prefer we didn't keep wasting 2nd round picks over and over as well but that is a different issue.

 

[Russ Smith]

“He is better than our D- replacement level players”. I guess. Not a ringing endorsement.


So why when I go to Panther fansites/forums, they don’t talk about him being a difference maker? Aka, the 7th overall pick not being a difference maker? I at least expect a very good DT at that spot, not just a “quality” one.


Oh it is. Draft one of the least valuable spots on defense & continue to ignore the way more important positions on defense like EDGE & CB. That is absolutely a Steve Keim move.


We, or at least I, can only hope.

We don't agree and that's fine Nobody is going to agree on everything. I think a key point in my disagreement is you keep saying NT is one of the least valuable spots in a defense and I just don't agree. Pre knee injury I thought Corey Peters was a pretty good NT on the downside of his career. he's now washed, 33 coming off a serious knee injury that I'm actually surprised he came back from, I had the same surgery myself.

That said NT in a 3/4 is still an important position. he's not going to get sacks or strip sacks or interceptions no, but anchoring in the middle drawing 2 blockers etc that's absolutely important, and something we haven't had in awhile. As AJ said you don't get tons of stats doing that but it's a very valuable job, Watt not even playing NT routinely drew 2 guys this year when he was healthy on run plays and it's why our run defense was better with him IMO. Maybe Davis as a rookie wouldn't, but he sure did in college even on a stacked defense.

I keep seeing 23 or 24 I thought we had 23 but corrected to 24 because others were saying I think it's 23?

CBS new draft has us taking Jameson Williams, coming off an ACL tear in a bowl game seems like a bad idea to me but I guess I can see that. It's the first mock draft I've seen that doesn't have Jordan Davis in the first round BTW. He doesn't have Harry's guy in the first round either. Actually looking at it I think CBS is doing the same thing they did in years past where they have like 10 different guys doing mock drafts?

Who do you favor with our pick?

 

[Chopper0080]

I want you guys to think long & hard about this & see if you REALLY agree with it:


“I want to draft a guy with our first round pick that we will have to sub out on 3rd downs, sometimes even 2nd & long, because he doesn’t offers much in the passing game. Arguably playing only half the snaps on defense. THAT is who I want to spend our *first* round pick on”.

I believe this is such an under appreciated and recognized philosophy in regards to roster management. Spending money and high picks on positions that are expensive and on players who can have high snap rates. I made this same argument regarding Dan Williams when we drafted him. Liked the player, but hated that we used a premium asset on a limited player.

 

[Chopper0080]

I mentioned a name previously that was my early choice for the Cards’ first round pick. I backed off trumpeting him so as not to take away from the Cards’ playoff run. I usually don’t get this excited, this early, but I believe this player is undervalued by the majority of scouts, even though he was the ACC Defensive Player of the Year. So let’s get into it. Sadly The Athletic’s new draft shows him going 26th.

The first question to ask is what is the Cards’ philosophy for this draft? With the clock ticking on Watt & Hopkins, they should be looking for immediate impact unlike recent selections. Depending on free agency they figure to need OL, WR & RB support. History says the OL is more likely helped by an early choice. I’m presuming they re-sign Ertz. Conner would be good too. A WR & RB could be taken in late rounds.

However, the real needs are on defense. I think they lose Jones to FA. Golden is a backup at this point at best. So they need an effective Edge, even with Watt back. They need an anchor tackle in the middle and a CB. I’m going Edge in round one. Jermaine Johnson is likely not in many first rounds. He should be and he’s a perfect fit for the Cards. FSU rushers have had a checkered history at best, so climbing the boards will be hard. He started out at GA where he recorded 6 sacks playing only 30 plays. He then entered the portal and landed at FSU.

At GA to get him on the field, they used him often at OLB. At FSU, he typically played DE. While there is only a little coverage tape, his athleticism should enable him to play there. In fact, I think he will be more effective at OLB, but he would be fine at DE if the Cards like him better there.

I can’t recall the last time I was so excited and confident about a player. When I start listing his attributes, you’ll think I’m exaggerating. I firmly believe 2 years from now he will be regarded as the top Edge in this draft class. Several will be taken before him. I believe he will prove out to be the more effective player. Let me make it clear from the start, one of his best aspects is he’s not just a situational rusher. He’s both willing and effective at defending the run. He’s strong, agile, hard to fake and a wrap up tackler. He’s ferocious when engaging and has a terrific motor. He’s good at shedding blocks and his agility gives him an above average tackle radius. He’s solid in space, staying calm and balanced, waiting for the runner to commit.

As a pass rusher he has it all. He has an explosive first step and exhibits great speed. He doesn’t show the normal bend we look for but he has unusually flexible ankles that let him achieve angles that are exceptional. He takes the most effective angle to the QB in almost every case. He’s very hard to block with one player. Forget about controlling him with a TE or RB; he has too broad a skill set. Against linemen he shows a good understanding of leverage. Ironically he has most every move in the book, but often simply let’s his athleticism dominate. If you watch enough tape you’ll see swim moves, spins, bull rushes, powerful punches and speed bends. He’ll need to learn to use these more often in the NFL. Still he shows more moves and better technique than any of the other top Edges. Last but certainly not least he has the closing burst so many rushers lack. You can see this with Golden who often threatens but fails to close the deal. Johnson gets sacks and creates turnovers. Finally all these traits will allow him to be terrific when stunting if they bring him up to the line. He seems to take coaching well and if he gets good coaching and effective defensive play design, he will be devastating.

I realize this seems so positive you’re probably thinking why isn’t this guy everybody’s number one. He does have a few issues beyond FSU, where the coaching was terrible. When playing DE, he can get tied up by big bodied defenders who are too large to handle with power. This is one reason I like him better at OLB. Give him more space and he sheds would be blockers more effectively. He’s very fast, running a 4.50 in high school (keep in mind he was lighter then). He won’t run that at the combine but he does scare me he might test too well and move up in the draft. In any case his speed and agility will allow him to take great angles when rushing from outside. It’s also possible he’ll start out a little over confident and will experience a learning curve. Finally his lack of pass cover experience may scare off some potential teams looking for an OLB. He looked okay at GA in coverage and has all the tools and the drive to be solid in this role as well.

I have included a link of highlights. I rarely do this as you can build a 5 minute reel on anyone. However, this one is useful as it shows speed, closing burst, power agility angle choice, bend and motor. Also note the ferocious, wrap up tackling. Finally it illustrates you can move him around to target specific weaknesses.

I think this guy will become a transcendent player capable of changing game results.

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Are you ready for absolute pain when the Cardinals draft him and then Vance sits him for 75% of the snaps on the year?

I would be very hesitant to give Vance another 1st round front 7 defensive player.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I want you guys to think long & hard about this & see if you REALLY agree with it:


“I want to draft a guy with our first round pick that we will have to sub out on 3rd downs, sometimes even 2nd & long, because he doesn’t offers much in the passing game. Arguably playing only half the snaps on defense. THAT is who I want to spend our *first* round pick on”.

It's Dan Williams all over again.

Yes he was a damn good run stopper, but those guys can be found in rounds 3-7 too.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I believe this is such an under appreciated and recognized philosophy in regards to roster management. Spending money and high picks on positions that are expensive and on players who can have high snap rates. I made this same argument regarding Dan Williams when we drafted him. Liked the player, but hated that we used a premium asset on a limited player.

Damn! We both thought of the same player.

 

[DVontel]

We don't agree and that's fine Nobody is going to agree on everything. I think a key point in my disagreement is you keep saying NT is one of the least valuable spots in a defense and I just don't agree. Pre knee injury I thought Corey Peters was a pretty good NT on the downside of his career. he's now washed, 33 coming off a serious knee injury that I'm actually surprised he came back from, I had the same surgery myself.

That said NT in a 3/4 is still an important position. he's not going to get sacks or strip sacks or interceptions no, but anchoring in the middle drawing 2 blockers etc that's absolutely important, and something we haven't had in awhile. As AJ said you don't get tons of stats doing that but it's a very valuable job, Watt not even playing NT routinely drew 2 guys this year when he was healthy on run plays and it's why our run defense was better with him IMO. Maybe Davis as a rookie wouldn't, but he sure did in college even on a stacked defense.

I keep seeing 23 or 24 I thought we had 23 but corrected to 24 because others were saying I think it's 23?

CBS new draft has us taking Jameson Williams, coming off an ACL tear in a bowl game seems like a bad idea to me but I guess I can see that. It's the first mock draft I've seen that doesn't have Jordan Davis in the first round BTW. He doesn't have Harry's guy in the first round either. Actually looking at it I think CBS is doing the same thing they did in years past where they have like 10 different guys doing mock drafts?

Who do you favor with our pick?

- Jermaine Johnson
- Andrew Booth
- Roger McCreary



Booth probably won’t fall to our pick, but Jermaine & Roger are my other top choices.

 

[Russ Smith]

Damn! We both thought of the same player.

That's because he was the last really good NT we had.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

I believe this is such an under appreciated and recognized philosophy in regards to roster management. Spending money and high picks on positions that are expensive and on players who can have high snap rates. I made this same argument regarding Dan Williams when we drafted him. Liked the player, but hated that we used a premium asset on a limited player.

We used premium assets on players that can't see the field at all. I'd call that 'limited players' as well.

The best thing I like about the pick is it is pretty much plug and play.

'Hey big boy, we need you to go in and occupy 2 gaps and get as big of a push as possible, can you do that?'

 

[Russ Smith]

- Jermaine Johnson
- Andrew Booth
- Roger McCreary



Booth probably won’t fall to our pick, but Jermaine & Roger are my other top choices.

I only saw Auburn play once this year didn't really notice McCreary. The scouts on him say he's got very short strides so not as fast as you'd like, and he's not "long" but I have no opinion on him beyond before this year he was a projected 3rd rounder so he must have had a good year.

I definitely think CB is a big need this year.

Both those CB's seem like they could be on the board at our pick

 

[DVontel]

I only saw Auburn play once this year didn't really notice McCreary. The scouts on him say he's got very short strides so not as fast as you'd like, and he's not "long" but I have no opinion on him beyond before this year he was a projected 3rd rounder so he must have had a good year.

I definitely think CB is a big need this year.

Both those CB's seem like they could be on the board at our pick

That’s a great thing for CBs, lol.

 

[Russ Smith]

That’s a great thing for CBs, lol.

I watched the replay of his 100 yard INT return against Kentucky, I see what they mean by short stride but nobody caught him.

 

[Chopper0080]

We used premium assets on players that can't see the field at all. I'd call that 'limited players' as well.

The best thing I like about the pick is it is pretty much plug and play.

'Hey big boy, we need you to go in and occupy 2 gaps and get as big of a push as possible, can you do that?'

You aren't always going to hit but that is true with every player. There is no assurance Davis won't eat himself out of the league. So, you have taken an already risky thing in the draft and then limited your ceiling if you do actually hit on the pick.

 

[juza76]

- Jermaine Johnson
- Andrew Booth
- Roger McCreary



Booth probably won’t fall to our pick, but Jermaine & Roger are my other top choices.

Jermaine Johnson
Harry called him today, watched the video, he is a complete athlete, fast,quick, power moves, can sheed blocks
I m wrong if i say he reminds me Nick Bosa?

 

[Chopper0080]

It's like 1st round RBs. Yeah you can take one and he may hit, but you are setting your ceiling at a player whom you should likely not give a second contract to. If you need one, take one later or spend 4-6 mil on one in free agency.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

You aren't always going to hit but that is true with every player. There is no assurance Davis won't eat himself out of the league. So, you have taken an already risky thing in the draft and then limited your ceiling if you do actually hit on the pick.

Of course. The problem is that we fail more often than not; more often than most. I won't even get into where the fault on that belongs...

Keim has a terrible problem about drafting players (especially in the first round) without actually knowing or able to put them in their best position. A player like Davis is about as simple as it gets. You aren't turning him into any other player than a NT.

 

[juza76]

Jermaine Johnson olb Simmons ilb collins ilb hassan Reddick olb

Emmanuel ogbah de Larry Ogunjobi dt jj Watt dt/de

the young guys with a new dc will make the big leap

The front seven would be so much faster and powerful then before, hopefully we will not witness anymore bootleg from Stafford, cousins, Goff...

Still wondering how Jordan played 100% of the snaps, i hate slow ass linebacker

 

[DVontel]

Jermaine Johnson
Harry called him today, watched the video, he is a complete athlete, fast,quick, power moves, can sheed blocks
I m wrong if i say he reminds me Nick Bosa?

You are cause if he did, he’ll be talked about as a top 5 pick, lol.

He’s still a little raw as a pass-rusher, which is understandable why’s he a projected mid-to-late 1st rounder, but he’s a really good run defender already. I would love him with our pick.

 

[juza76]

You are cause if he did, he’ll be talked about as a top 5 pick, lol.

He’s still a little raw as a pass-rusher, which is understandable why’s he a projected mid-to-late 1st rounder, but he’s a really good run defender already. I would love him with our pick.

i don't say a clone, just remind me considering his skillset

 

[Cards Czar]

Rounds 1,2,3,6 and 7. Projected to get 3 compensatory picks, one in 5th round.

I want DT Jordan Davis. I am being sick of getting gashed up the gut. This guy will eat two blockers on every single play.

We should be getting 2 - 5th rounders and 1 7th rounder comp picks this year.

Compensatory Picks | Over the Cap

Compensatory Picks | Over the Cap

overthecap.com

 

[Russ Smith]

It's like 1st round RBs. Yeah you can take one and he may hit, but you are setting your ceiling at a player whom you should likely not give a second contract to. If you need one, take one later or spend 4-6 mil on one in free agency.

What's the average career of an NFL RB? NFL NT?

 

[Russ Smith]

Of course. The problem is that we fail more often than not; more often than most. I won't even get into where the fault on that belongs...

Keim has a terrible problem about drafting players (especially in the first round) without actually knowing or able to put them in their best position. A player like Davis is about as simple as it gets. You aren't turning him into any other player than a NT.

And in the heavy jumbo goalline formation with Watt at FB!

 

[Cards Czar]

OK here are our picks as of today. 8 picks total:

1 - #23
2 - #55
3 - #87
4 - Baltimore has a #4 from Arizona (2021 draft trade)
5 - Philadelphia has a #5 from Arizona (TE Zach Ertz)
5 - #175 Comp Pick - P. Peterson
5 - #178 Comp Pick - H. Reddick
6 - #200
7 - #240
7 - #256 Comp Pick for A. Blackson

These might change but i doubt it.

 

[Harry]

Harry is there any current or past pro player you would compare Johnson too?

He has some of Bosa’s strength moves. They both understand leverage. I don’t normally compare that way because players tend to be unique. If forced, I know I’m opening myself up, I’d say Khalil Mack.

 

[overseascardfan]

If Johnson isn't there in Round 1 then I say we stay pass rusher route and take Drake Jackson.