It is surprising to me that so many think that selecting Ayton is a no-brainer.
His offensive game seems to be on track to be elite, but when I look to the Suns being in the playoffs at some point, I can see defenders like Davis, Capela, and Draymond (and whoever the next generation of mobile big guys is like JJJ and Bamba) being able to keep up with him somewhat on the inside and on the perimeter. And I only bring up this part about his offense because of the comparisons to Hakeem and Robinson...I don't remember defenders like Davis and Green going up against these guys in the 90s.
But even if Ayton can't be stopped offensively, the fact that he hasn't shown any defensive IQ, whether it's because he doesn't have any or because of Arizona's coaching/personnel situation, is concerning. His D would likely be tolerable during the regular season as the Suns progress from ~20 wins to 35-45 wins over the next few years. But this could be a huge problem in the playoffs when teams more deliberately attack him. Who does he guard when playing a team like the Warriors or Celtics in a 7-game series? Even if the perimeter guys become competent defenders, everything crumbles if Ayton can never figure out what's going on. I think Ayton has more of a chance to become unplayable during crunch time in playoff games compared to Doncic and some of the other top guys.
In the end I'm still leaning Ayton #1, but that's mostly because it's a crapshoot anyway and avoiding the fan revolt and more bad local press is important enough to give Ayton the edge.
Nonsense. There are a lot of TERRIBLE defenders that are stars on offense, they never leave the court in the clutch. The only stars that get pulled in the clutch are ones who lay bricks at the free throw line.
Furthermore, Bamba got absolutely destroyed by Duke's big men, they went ham on him. I'm not convinced that Bamba will be worth much as a one on one post defender, he will earn his money protecting the rim against cutters, while guys like Ayton shove him around and beat him to position because he is too weak to hold his ground.
And while Ayton didn't stand out on D, it's also not like he was some Greek tragedy out there either. Defense is his... only... arguable weakness, and it is still a debatable one because Arizona did not put him in a position to succeed.
And finally... defense is a team thing. You can have a beast on defense but if the teammates don't buy into a cohesive system then it won't matter, the beast will get negated by a simple screen. Kyrie Irving was a complete doormat on D, rated as one of the worst guards in the league on that end, in Boston, under a good coach with a good system, he rated as elite. Ayton, no Ayton, we won't play defense well unless the coaching staff comes up with a good system and gets the players to buy into it.
And I'm not passing on a guy who had the greatest offensive season of any college freshmen center because he struggled to contain guards on his team that stupidly had him defending on the perimeter.