Top 1st round talent QB's most likely gone by 15

[Lefty]

Rudolph will be available at 15. I would take him over Jackson.

 

[Jetstream Green]

If we take the 5ht or 6th best QB when we are at 15, we just better be ready to use our first rounder in 2019 on a QB as well.

I imagine then you are implying what the general overall consensus of where everyone should be rated, media and what slips out from franchises which you can hardly trust. That is all fine and dandy except the fact I seriously doubt you, them or I can say which is the fifth, sixth or first or every franchise could comfortably select their QB of the future and moving up would really not be a gamble. Would have it mattered where Wilson, Rodgers or Brady would have been selected according to their ranking... probably not

 

[Jetstream Green]

Derek Carr, Andy Dalton, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Drew Brees say hello. A better track record of valuable 2nd round QBs in the past 20 years than there are succesful 1st round trade-ups.

And would have they selected them there if they knew what they know now, hell no! They would have been the first selection by that team with a bullet, so your reasoning and statement does not validate anything Solar. So a team basically took a flyer, and that is what you are doing with that position when you throw your money down past the first round. They got lucky and they know it... maybe I want the Cardinals to have a little more confidence in selecting their QB, or do not waste a pick at all

 

[Lagerfilled]

Rudolph will be available at 15. I would take him over Jackson.

I would take Mike White over all of them and he can be had in Rd 3

 

[TRW]

I would take Mike White over all of them and he can be had in Rd 3

I wouldn't be unhappy with that. Maybe Luke Faulk? He might end up being pretty good.

 

[BW52]

I wouldn't be unhappy with that. Maybe Luke Faulk? He might end up being pretty good.

Other than being gunshy and pocket panicky then no problem.He does have a big arm and probably can be coached up to help his issues.I likeas a rd 3 guy.Of course the way QBs migt go in this draft if Cards are determined to draft a QB they might have to do it Round 2

 

[Solar7]

And would have they selected them there if they knew what they know now, hell no! They would have been the first selection by that team with a bullet, so your reasoning and statement does not validate anything Solar. So a team basically took a flyer, and that is what you are doing with that position when you throw your money down past the first round. They got lucky and they know it... maybe I want the Cardinals to have a little more confidence in selecting their QB, or do not waste a pick at all

Well, you said you "don't get the reasoning" in selecting a QB there, so, the reasoning is that these players have warts, and it's an inexact science. Would teams go back and draft Tom Brady number one overall? Sure. But the fact of the matter is that every pick in the draft is a flyer. Not a sure thing. There's very much a point in taking QBs past round one.

This goes for any player at any position. You don't think there's 26 other teams who wish they had taken DeAndre Hopkins earlier than the rest of the garbage in the first round of the 2013 draft? It's all educated guesses.

 

[Red Bird]

Draft Christian Kirk at 15. Take Kyle Lauletta as your QB later

 

[BW52]

Why take a WR in Round 1.There are plenty of quality WRs available in the draft in rounds 2 or later.As of this moment CB and QBOF and Dline are bigger needs IMHO.

 

[POISON]

Using Draft Tracker at NFL.com as you suggest, where do you draw the line where a QB is not worthy of being drafted at #15 but may not be there when the Cardinals draft at #47 in the second round. Of course this is assuming the Cardinals do not move around in these rounds.

For sake of discussion there seems to be a tier 1 of Darnold.

A tier 2 of Rosen, Mayfield, Allen and Jackson.

Then tier 3 of Rudolph, White and Falk.

Of the above QBs I'm wondering where the Cardinals draw the line and move on to another position in the first round.


http://www.nfl.com/draft/2018/tracker#dt-tabs:dt-by-position

Darnold is terrible. Tier 1? That guy might throw 20 or more picks his first year

 

[Mainstreet]

Darnold is terrible. Tier 1? That guy might throw 20 or more picks his first year

I was using the tracker at NFL.com because the other poster was using it for reference.

 

[SoCal Cardfan]

I wish we would just trade out of the first round, since Fitz...I'm seriously struggling to remember our last round 1 pick who was worth a crap.



Edit...... I looked..... NO ONE!

 

[juza76]

I wish we would just trade out of the first round, since Fitz...I'm seriously struggling to remember our last round 1 pick who was worth a crap.



Edit...... I looked..... NO ONE!

probably u forgot about Patrick Peterson

 

[cardncubfan]

And would have they selected them there if they knew what they know now, hell no! They would have been the first selection by that team with a bullet, so your reasoning and statement does not validate anything Solar. So a team basically took a flyer, and that is what you are doing with that position when you throw your money down past the first round. They got lucky and they know it... maybe I want the Cardinals to have a little more confidence in selecting their QB, or do not waste a pick at all

I think his point is none of those QB's were the #1 rated QB in their drafts. So picking the #1 consensus QB doesn't necessarily guarantee you are getting the #1 QB in that draft. Maybe the 5th or 6th rated QB turns out to be the #1 QB in the draft. Thing is nobody really knows how they are going to turn out. Hell Riley Ferguson may turn out to be the next TB. We just don't know.

 

[Southpaw]

1. Cleveland Browns
Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming. CBS Sports NFL insider Jason La Canfora wrote recently that he's buying Allen as the No. 1 QB, and since no one is more connected than Jason, I'm willing to go down that road too. While the Browns traded for Tyrod Taylor on Friday (as well as Jarvis Landry and Damarious Randall), I still think a quarterback is the most likely move for them at No. 1 -- Taylor isn't more than a one-year option on his current deal, but he's good enough that the Browns can draft Allen and let him sit and develop before taking over in 2019 (or late in 2018).

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft...ft-giants-trade-down-then-up-as-qbs-go-1-2-3/

 

[Chopper0080]

I imagine then you are implying what the general overall consensus of where everyone should be rated, media and what slips out from franchises which you can hardly trust. That is all fine and dandy except the fact I seriously doubt you, them or I can say which is the fifth, sixth or first or every franchise could comfortably select their QB of the future and moving up would really not be a gamble. Would have it mattered where Wilson, Rodgers or Brady would have been selected according to their ranking... probably not

What I am saying is that if you take the 5th or 6th best QB, you can't be beholden to him like you would if you drafted the 1st or 2nd best QB in the draft. If he doesn't flash right away, you need to be prepared to view it as a sunk cost and get another guy the following year.

The Browns took Kizer who was the fourth best QB in the class. They are still willing to take a QB at #1 this year because they understood the risks.

I won't say that Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph CANT be QB for the next 15 years. What I am saying is that there is a higher chance that they won't be, and we just need to be prepared to adjust if they aren't. We can't waste 3 years hoping Lamar Jackson develops into a marginal pocket passing QB. We can't waste 3 years hoping Mayfield matures. We can't wait 3 years hoping Rudolph demonstrates that he is more than a system QB.

 

[Chopper0080]

Darnold is terrible. Tier 1? That guy might throw 20 or more picks his first year

Peyton Manning threw 28 picks his rookie year.
Andrew Luck threw 18.

This is a bad argument.

 

[Chopper0080]

I think his point is none of those QB's were the #1 rated QB in their drafts. So picking the #1 consensus QB doesn't necessarily guarantee you are getting the #1 QB in that draft. Maybe the 5th or 6th rated QB turns out to be the #1 QB in the draft. Thing is nobody really knows how they are going to turn out. Hell Riley Ferguson may turn out to be the next TB. We just don't know.

This isn't true. Russell Wilson had legit concerns. His size is a statistical outlier. Dak got a DUI prior to the draft. Tom was benched his senior year. Carr had his older brother David who failed as a starter (not all his fault). Guys who fall, fall for a reason. You are drafting the 5th or 6th QB in a draft for a reason. It doesn't mean that he can't succeed, but there are more road blocks in the way.

 

[Southpaw]

5th and 6th QBs belong in the 2nd/3rd round.

 

[BW52]

5th and 6th QBs belong in the 2nd/3rd round.

That is absolute hogwash.How the 5th. or 6th QBs rank roundwise depends on the nonQB players rankings /and the overall rankings of all the players QBs included.

 

[Solar7]

What I am saying is that if you take the 5th or 6th best QB, you can't be beholden to him like you would if you drafted the 1st or 2nd best QB in the draft. If he doesn't flash right away, you need to be prepared to view it as a sunk cost and get another guy the following year.

The Browns took Kizer who was the fourth best QB in the class. They are still willing to take a QB at #1 this year because they understood the risks.

I won't say that Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph CANT be QB for the next 15 years. What I am saying is that there is a higher chance that they won't be, and we just need to be prepared to adjust if they aren't. We can't waste 3 years hoping Lamar Jackson develops into a marginal pocket passing QB. We can't waste 3 years hoping Mayfield matures. We can't wait 3 years hoping Rudolph demonstrates that he is more than a system QB.

I agree with this - taking a 2nd round QB this year (or even Jackson/Rudolph in the first) shouldn't prevent us from taking Stidham at #1 overall if we're in that spot and he's proven to be worthy of the pick (just an example here), if those QBs looked as poor as Kizer did in his first year, or like Jimmy Clausen did years ago.

I think his point is none of those QB's were the #1 rated QB in their drafts. So picking the #1 consensus QB doesn't necessarily guarantee you are getting the #1 QB in that draft. Maybe the 5th or 6th rated QB turns out to be the #1 QB in the draft. Thing is nobody really knows how they are going to turn out. Hell Riley Ferguson may turn out to be the next TB. We just don't know.

Yep. Quarterbacks fall for a multitude of reasons. We're going to see at least one of the "top 4" QBs this year falter miserably, and there will probably be a guy in the later rounds that outperforms them or at least has a solid career. That's why guys like Ted Thompson made careers out of drafting quarterbacks frequently - some are going to thrive in another environment.

5th and 6th QBs belong in the 2nd/3rd round.

I think it's silly to be that rigid. This is one of the best graded classes in a really long time. I don't think anyone would be all that shocked if in 5 years, Lamar Jackson was the best QB in this class, given that he won the Heisman and all. You take them if you believe in them. If you grade out 6 QBs higher than any WR, take the QB before the WR.

 

[Southpaw]

, Lamar Jackson was the best QB in this class, given that he won the Heisman and all.

List of Heisman winning QBs;
Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks

1. Davey O’Brien, TCU Horned Frogs (1938)
2. Nile Kinnick, Iowa Hawkeyes (1939)
3. Angelo Bertelli, Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1943)
4. Les Horvath, Ohio State Buckeyes (1944)
5. Johnny Lujack, Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1947)
6. Paul Hornung, Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1956)
7. Terry Baker, Oregon State Beavers (1962)
8. Roger Staubach, Navy Midshipmen (1963)
9. John Huarte, Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1964)
10. Steve Spurrier, Florida Gators (1966)
11. Gary Beban, UCLA Bruins (1967)
12. Jim Plunkett, Stanford Cardinal (1970)
13. Pat Sullivan, Auburn Tigers (1971)
14. Doug Flutie, Boston College Eagles (1984)
15. Vinny Testaverde, Miami Hurricanes (1986)
16. Andre Ware, Houston Cougars (1989)
17. Ty Detmer, BYU Cougars (1990)
18. Gino Torretta, Miami Hurricanes (1992)
19. Charlie Ward, Florida State Seminoles (1993)
20. Danny Wuerffel, Florida Gators (1996)
21. Chris Weinke, Florida State Seminoles (2000)
22. Eric Crouch, Nebraska Cornhuskers (2001)
23. Carson Palmer, USC Trojans (2002)
24. Jason White, Oklahoma Sooners (2003)
25. Matt Leinart, USC Trojans (2004)
26. Troy Smith, Ohio State Buckeyes (2006)
27. Tim Tebow, Florida Gators (2007)
28. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma Sooners (2008)
29. Cam Newton, Auburn Tigers (2010)
30. Robert Griffin III, Baylor Bears (2011)
31. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M Aggies (2012)
32. Jameis Winston, Florida State Seminoles (2013)
33. Marcus Mariota, Oregon Ducks (2014)
34. Lamar Jackson, Louisville Cardinals (2016)
35. Baker Mayfield Oklahoma Sooners (2017)

 

[Solar7]

List of Heisman winning QBs;
Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks

1. Davey O’Brien, TCU Horned Frogs (1938)
2. Nile Kinnick, Iowa Hawkeyes (1939)
3. Angelo Bertelli, Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1943)
4. Les Horvath, Ohio State Buckeyes (1944)
5. Johnny Lujack, Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1947)
6. Paul Hornung, Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1956)
7. Terry Baker, Oregon State Beavers (1962)
8. Roger Staubach, Navy Midshipmen (1963)
9. John Huarte, Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1964)
10. Steve Spurrier, Florida Gators (1966)
11. Gary Beban, UCLA Bruins (1967)
12. Jim Plunkett, Stanford Cardinal (1970)
13. Pat Sullivan, Auburn Tigers (1971)
14. Doug Flutie, Boston College Eagles (1984)
15. Vinny Testaverde, Miami Hurricanes (1986)
16. Andre Ware, Houston Cougars (1989)
17. Ty Detmer, BYU Cougars (1990)
18. Gino Torretta, Miami Hurricanes (1992)
19. Charlie Ward, Florida State Seminoles (1993)
20. Danny Wuerffel, Florida Gators (1996)
21. Chris Weinke, Florida State Seminoles (2000)
22. Eric Crouch, Nebraska Cornhuskers (2001)
23. Carson Palmer, USC Trojans (2002)
24. Jason White, Oklahoma Sooners (2003)
25. Matt Leinart, USC Trojans (2004)
26. Troy Smith, Ohio State Buckeyes (2006)
27. Tim Tebow, Florida Gators (2007)
28. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma Sooners (2008)
29. Cam Newton, Auburn Tigers (2010)
30. Robert Griffin III, Baylor Bears (2011)
31. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M Aggies (2012)
32. Jameis Winston, Florida State Seminoles (2013)
33. Marcus Mariota, Oregon Ducks (2014)
34. Lamar Jackson, Louisville Cardinals (2016)
35. Baker Mayfield Oklahoma Sooners (2017)

In modern (20 years) history, Heisman winning QBs have gone on to be a high draft pick. Assuming Mayfield is going to go in the top 5 and not have a meteoric drop, at least 10 guys will have been first rounders. 11 if Lamar Jackson gets drafted. Not all of them have been winners, but recently there's been an uptick in NFL teams believing in them.

 

[JeffGollin]

If as many as 7 QB's were off the board by #15, it stands to reason that there will be an excess of very talented players available at other positions.

Best we go for BPA at #15 and do some cherrypicking for need (including QB) in Rounds 2, 3 etc.

 

[Jetstream Green]

What I am saying is that if you take the 5th or 6th best QB, you can't be beholden to him like you would if you drafted the 1st or 2nd best QB in the draft. If he doesn't flash right away, you need to be prepared to view it as a sunk cost and get another guy the following year.

The Browns took Kizer who was the fourth best QB in the class. They are still willing to take a QB at #1 this year because they understood the risks.

I won't say that Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph CANT be QB for the next 15 years. What I am saying is that there is a higher chance that they won't be, and we just need to be prepared to adjust if they aren't. We can't waste 3 years hoping Lamar Jackson develops into a marginal pocket passing QB. We can't waste 3 years hoping Mayfield matures. We can't wait 3 years hoping Rudolph demonstrates that he is more than a system QB.

Alright, that I agree on and why if one thinks a second round pick is worth the gamble but not taking the same guy in the first is a waste if your roster has other areas which need to be addressed... which are easier to ascertain than QB, and yes all the positions are a gamble but one does not draft in my observation the most important position later when other aspects are needy too