Who will the Suns draft at #13?

[hcsilla]

I think he has some potential. I'd prefer a proven, solid contributor (Sullinger) or someone with insanely high potential (Jones), but I am not going to be too upset if they get Rivers, though in my opinion, a classic shooting guards are easier to find and acquire through free agency than 6'11 SFs with incredible wingspan and athleticism, or solid rebounding power forwards are.
If Sullinger or Jones are available and they pick Austin, that will be a mistake.

If Rivers is available and they pick Sullinger or Jones, that will be a mistake.

I do think that Sullinger and Jones have some of the highest bust potentials in this year's draft.

Rivers already has some NBA-moves. He has a nice crossover and jumpshot, an explosive 1st step, can absorb contact and finish around the rim. He is not a bad passer either but sometimes tries to do everything alone which turns into offensive fouls, bad shots and passes.

He reminds me of Monta Ellis in his better days.

 

[SirStefan32]

If Rivers is available and they pick Sullinger or Jones, that will be a mistake.

I do think that Sullinger and Jones have some of the highest bust potentials in this year's draft.

Rivers already has some NBA-moves. He has a nice crossover and jumpshot, an explosive 1st step, can absorb contact and finish around the rim. He is not a bad passer either but sometimes tries to do everything alone which turns into offensive fouls, bad shots and passes.

He reminds me of Monta Ellis in his better days.

Jones IS the ultimate "very high risk/ insanely high reward" guy, but I can guarantee you that Sullinger will NOT be a bust. Rebounding always translates well from NCAA to NBA. At the very minimum, he will be a solid rebounder with the ability to score in the low post, and hit open jumpers.
I am 90% certain that he will never make an all star team, but I am 99.9% sure he will be a solid starter (10+p/10+r) for many years.

 

[hcsilla]

I like John Henson's potential, as a shotblocker-rebounder-defender and he started to pick up his offense as well.

Meyers Leonard may be the next Marcin Gortat. He is very quick, has a fluid movement, is willing to do the dirty work but he is a bit soft and limited offensively. He will at least need one year or two, but it can pay-off ala Roy Hibbert.

 

[hcsilla]

Jones IS the ultimate "very high risk/ insanely high reward" guy, but I can guarantee you that Sullinger will NOT be a bust.

No, you can't, since I have seen too much Ohio State games this year.

Rebounding always translates well from NCAA to NBA. At the very minimum, he will be a solid rebounder with the ability to score in the low post, and hit open jumpers.
I am 90% certain that he will never make an all star team, but I am 99.9% sure he will be a solid starter (10+p/10+r) for many years.

Rebounding may translate well, but I say the exact opposite:

There is NO way, that Sullinger will be a 10/10 guy. He is just not quick, explosive and long enough to that. Add that he has (or may have) weight problems, is not a leaper at all and his wingspan is average at the best, IMO.

Craig Smith was a significantly better college player than Sullinger is.

 

[JCSunsfan]

The odd thing about this draft is that after the top pick, 2-20 all look pretty similar in potential. Its a deep, deep draft. There will be alot of good players taken here.

 

[SirStefan32]

The odd thing about this draft is that after the top pick, 2-20 all look pretty similar in potential. Its a deep, deep draft. There will be alot of good players taken here.

I agree. I really hope the Suns can either buy an extra pick, move up, or acquire additional picks by taking on a bad contract. If they can get two lottery picks and a 15-20 pick, the rebuilding process may be off to a good start.

 

[leclerc]

NBAdraft.net has Perry Jones up on the board out of our reach.

 

[Covert Rain]

The Suns at 13 are not going to get a franchise player so that means that Suns are pretty much drafting to add a piece to the team that would fit whatever "puzzle" the front office is trying to put together.

Short of trading up in the draft I expect the Suns to get another player who will contribute but won't change the direction of the franchise.

 

[carey]

The mocks have pegged our last few picks: Lopez, Clark, and Morris. If they are saying Rivers, then that's probably who it's going to be.

I'm willing to bet if Marshall is on the board he'll be the pick, but I thought for sure we'd pick Leonard when he fell last year or Faried at least.

 

[Mainstreet]

The mocks have pegged our last few picks: Lopez, Clark, and Morris. If they are saying Rivers, then that's probably who it's going to be.

I'm willing to bet if Marshall is on the board he'll be the pick, but I thought for sure we'd pick Leonard when he fell last year or Faried at least.

IMO, this just shows the Suns are stagnant in their thinking in regards to the draft. They get locked into drafting for need rather than talent. The Suns need to think of BPA and not think position. Although I have not locked into a player it would not hurt if the BPA is a PG.

 

[Folster]

Look what the Pacers have done with barely one top 10 pick.

Paul George, #10, 2010
Tyler Hansbrough, #13, 2009
Roy Hibbert, #17, 2008
George Hill, #26, 2008, acquired in trade for rights to Kawhi Leonard
Darren Collison, #21, 2009, acquired in trade for Troy Murphy's carcass
Lou Amundson, undrafted, acquired in trade for Brandon Rush
Danny Granger, #17, 2005
David West, #18, 2003, signed via free agency
Leandro Barbosa, #28, 2003 acquired in trade for a 2nd round pick

It's been 7 years since Reggie Miller last played, but Larry Bird has quietly assembled a solid team without tanking. This is absolutely the best case scenario for the Suns. It's sad thinking the Suns could have many of the players listed above.

We drafted Robin Lopez over Roy Hibbert. With one of the picks that went to Seattle for dumping KT, we could have had George Hill. (Batum, Ibaka, and Arthur were also available). We could have kept Amundson and Barbosa, and we could have drafted David West instead of Zarko Cabarkapa.

 

[Phrazbit]

Look what the Pacers have done with barely one top 10 pick.

Paul George, #10, 2010
Tyler Hansbrough, #13, 2009
Roy Hibbert, #17, 2008
George Hill, #26, 2008, acquired in trade for rights to Kawhi Leonard
Darren Collison, #21, 2009, acquired in trade for Troy Murphy's carcass
Lou Amundson, undrafted, acquired in trade for Brandon Rush
Danny Granger, #17, 2005
David West, #18, 2003, signed via free agency
Leandro Barbosa, #28, 2003 acquired in trade for a 2nd round pick

It's been 7 years since Reggie Miller last played, but Larry Bird has quietly assembled a solid team without tanking. This is absolutely the best case scenario for the Suns. It's sad thinking the Suns could have many of the players listed above.

We drafted Robin Lopez over Roy Hibbert. With one of the picks that went to Seattle for dumping KT, we could have had George Hill. (Batum, Ibaka, and Arthur were also available). We could have kept Amundson and Barbosa, and we could have drafted David West instead of Zarko Cabarkapa.

Its a nice idea but to get where they are now Indy suffered through 6 years of dull, hopeless, below average basketball in a half empty arena. And even now that they've had all that good fortune with early-mid round picks I dont think anyone would consider them a legit contender.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Look what the Pacers have done with barely one top 10 pick.

Paul George, #10, 2010
Tyler Hansbrough, #13, 2009
Roy Hibbert, #17, 2008
George Hill, #26, 2008, acquired in trade for rights to Kawhi Leonard
Darren Collison, #21, 2009, acquired in trade for Troy Murphy's carcass
Lou Amundson, undrafted, acquired in trade for Brandon Rush
Danny Granger, #17, 2005
David West, #18, 2003, signed via free agency
Leandro Barbosa, #28, 2003 acquired in trade for a 2nd round pick

It's been 7 years since Reggie Miller last played, but Larry Bird has quietly assembled a solid team without tanking. This is absolutely the best case scenario for the Suns. It's sad thinking the Suns could have many of the players listed above.

We drafted Robin Lopez over Roy Hibbert. With one of the picks that went to Seattle for dumping KT, we could have had George Hill. (Batum, Ibaka, and Arthur were also available). We could have kept Amundson and Barbosa, and we could have drafted David West instead of Zarko Cabarkapa.

Every team in the league has a long list of "could of/should of" moves like this. Its so easy in hindsight.

I am not sure everyone here would be happy with Indy's roster if it was the Suns. People would be complaining about better than mediocre but not great.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Its a nice idea but to get where they are now Indy suffered through 6 years of dull, hopeless, below average basketball in a half empty arena. And even now that they've had all that good fortune with early-mid round picks I dont think anyone would consider them a legit contender.

Exactly...they have a bunch of decent complimentary players, but certainly no go to players or stars. The Pistons are really the only example of a team that won a championship with no superstars.

 

[Superbone]

Every team in the league has a long list of "could of/should of" moves like this. Its so easy in hindsight.

Right. For example, a lot of teams missed out on Faried in the last draft.

 

[AzStevenCal]

IMO, this just shows the Suns are stagnant in their thinking in regards to the draft. They get locked into drafting for need rather than talent. The Suns need to think of BPA and not think position. Although I have not locked into a player it would not hurt if the BPA is a PG.

I think this is wrong. Their draft process may indeed by flawed but I don't think the NFL argument of BPA vs Need is all that relevant in the NBA. When you're picking from a choice group, you grab the most talented player and when you're drafting lower you have to balance potential against need. If you're a point guard away from competing it makes no sense to take a gamble on a power forward if there's a playmaker with similar up-side. There are just too many question marks about the players to do it any other way. IMO, when they pick the wrong player it's more likely to be the result of poor player evaluation.

Steve

 

[AzStevenCal]

Right. For example, a lot of teams missed out on Faried in the last draft.

I think they listened to me. I really liked the guy but I considered him a good prospect for the low 20's and thought picking him in the teens was a reach. Okay, so I don't really think they read my posts but I wouldn't be shocked to discover they used a similar rationale when viewing him. He really is the kind of player that you normally grab later in the first round and are then thrilled by his contributions. Maybe, like me, they just ignored the fact that the talent that normally shows up in the 8 through 21 spot didn't exist in this draft.

Steve

 

[Mainstreet]

I think this is wrong. Their draft process may indeed by flawed but I don't think the NFL argument of BPA vs Need is all that relevant in the NBA. When you're picking from a choice group, you grab the most talented player and when you're drafting lower you have to balance potential against need. If you're a point guard away from competing it makes no sense to take a gamble on a power forward if there's a playmaker with similar up-side. There are just too many question marks about the players to do it any other way. IMO, when they pick the wrong player it's more likely to be the result of poor player evaluation.

Steve

I'm saying the Suns would have a bunch of quality NBA caliber players on their roster if the Suns would have drafted BPA starting in the draft when they selected Lopez. I believe this ground has been covered already by another poster. I won't go further back. Ty Lawson would have looked nice in a Suns uniform in the 2009 draft where the talent was clearly at PG when the Suns selected.

Another way to look at it, if you draft top talent you can always trade for need.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I'm saying the Suns would have a bunch of quality NBA caliber players on their roster if the Suns would have drafted BPA starting in the draft when they selected Lopez. I believe this ground has been covered already by another poster. I won't go further back. Ty Lawson would have looked nice in a Suns uniform in the 2009 draft where the talent was clearly at PG when the Suns selected.

Another way to look at it, if you draft top talent you can always trade for need.

I think you miss my point. I don't believe it's a matter of philosophy on their part, it's a failure to properly evaluate talent. They didn't draft Earl Clark because he was a high scoring wing that fit their system, they drafted him because they thought his potential made him the best player available. They were wrong, Lawson would have been a far superior choice but we weren't the only team scared off by his 5'11 size.

You mentioned Lopez. Why do you think that was a case of drafting for need? He'd shown some defensive flashes but he was a waste of space on offense. Does that sound like the Suns were drafting him on a "need" basis. They just screwed up. If they had drafted for BPA with an eye on need they could have grabbed someone like Roy Hibbert who would have been a huge upgrade at the same position.

I think, for the most part, they draft the same way the other teams do. Over the past several years, even once we stopped giving away our picks, we've failed to find that diamond in the rough because we haven't put enough money and effort into developing our scouting department. We're not alone in this but we're in the bottom half of the league when it comes to knowing how to identify those players that might significantly outplay their draft slot. Regardless, we can't draft the BPA until we do a better job of identifying him.

Steve

 

[elindholm]

The Suns drafted Lopez for talent, not need. If they made a mistake in talent evaluation, that is different from a strategic error. Morris was an even clearer example of a non-need pick; had the Suns picked for need last summer, they would have taken a guard.

The Suns have been below average at drafting for the last several years, but that isn't because they have a fundamental misconception about what they're supposed to be doing. It's just because drafting is hard and they aren't very good at it.

 

[JCSunsfan]

The Suns drafted Lopez for talent, not need. If they made a mistake in talent evaluation, that is different from a strategic error. Morris was an even clearer example of a non-need pick; had the Suns picked for need last summer, they would have taken a guard.

The Suns have been below average at drafting for the last several years, but that isn't because they have a fundamental misconception about what they're supposed to be doing. It's just because drafting is hard and they aren't very good at it.

I agree completely. It's not that they are not trying to take BPA. They just haven't been very good at figuring out who that is.

It seems to be a very difficult thing for the NBA, especially with all the early entrants. Players just do not have a long enough track record against high level competition to see where they really are. Look at how many players have a good rookie year (or even just a few months) and then disappear as the opposition figures them out or they just whither with the pressures of the NBA on and off the court.

 

[sunsfan88]

The sig says it all...

 

[Superbone]

The sig says it all...

Maybe the Celtics will go easy on him.

 

[sunsfan88]

Maybe the Celtics will go easy on him.

We pick before the Celtics.

 

[AzStevenCal]

We pick before the Celtics.

I think he was jokingly suggesting that the Celtics would take it easy on the son of their head coach. Austin wouldn't be my first choice, my first choice is to win the lottery. But, assuming we don't move up, I think Rivers is a good choice.

Steve