For you Contract Wizards - Hopkins & Conner

[dreamcastrocks]

No, in an intelligent world. This isn’t paying Fitz his $11m. This wasn’t a legendary lifelong cardinal. This was guy who gave a nice performance for a single year.

Connor's year this year is solid. 4.3YPA and 7 TDs. With much getter performances in the past month.

It isn't like he is performing like Marcus Golden or Dennis Gardeck this year.

 

[Chopper0080]

He is making 7M a year. (3 years 21M) That isn't top 10. You guys are using the 'top 10' to suit a narrative. Besides, he isn't top 10, he is 14. (this year)

His contract value per year is the 10th highest of all NFL RBs at 7 mil per year tied with Fournette. Maybe I am too sensitive but the only way contracts can be evaluated is on their average per year cost and your ability to get out of them. In both arenas Conner's contract is bad.

His per year is the awful middle ground where you are paying more for a less talented or limited player. You aren't getting an elite player and you significantly more than a replacement level player.

His contract isn't maneuverable because it ends with 9.75 mil in dead space in year 2 if yo ucut him and only save 250k and even in year 3, you still have to eat 2 mil which is still too much for a mid player like Conner.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

His contract value per year is the 10th highest of all NFL RBs at 7 mil per year tied with Fournette. Maybe I am too sensitive but the only way contracts can be evaluated is on their average per year cost and your ability to get out of them. In both arenas Conner's contract is bad.

I think they should also be valued based off of the production the player provides, unless that is assumed by you of course.

His per year is the awful middle ground where you are paying more for a less talented or limited player. You aren't getting an elite player and you significantly more than a replacement level player.

His contract isn't maneuverable because it ends with 9.75 mil in dead space in year 2 if yo ucut him and only save 250k and even in year 3, you still have to eat 2 mil which is still too much for a mid player like Conner.

Again, my stance on Connor's contract is that maybe he is overpaid by a mil or two at the most, which is 0.5-1% of the total salary cap. I just don't think it is a 'terrible' contract like others are posting here.

 

[BritCard]

Rarified air

When you're right, you're right.

 

[BritCard]

For someone who clowns Jalen Thompson's contract as an overpay, how can you defend Conner's? There is no world where James Conner is the 10th best RB in the NFL which is where his per year pay is.

I didn't clown his contract. I said he's the 12th best paid safety but he isn't in the top 12, not even close.

But that's how free agency works. You get paid at your value, or in this case, at your perceived value when your deal is up and quite often with younger guys that means getting overpaid early and recouping it late. By the time it gets to around 2025 and he's the 20th highest paid safety but performing top 15 or better that's when you get your value.

Conner's contract is clear bang on where it should be. Outside of Ekeler and rookie contracts everyone better than him is higher paid and everyone lower paid is worse. He's exactly where he should be.

 

[BritCard]

And I think everyone can look at Hunt, Fournette, Hines and Edmonds as identify that those are bad deals as well. Just because we were stupid like the Browns, Colts, Dolphins and Bucs doesn't make it a good deal.

Outside of Ekeler which starting running back not on a rookie deal is better value than Conner exactly?

 

[BritCard]

This is a lot of chaff to throw into the air to say that Conner is actually still overpaid. It sucks for running backs that it's hard to get a lucrative second contract, but the Cards aren't running a charity for ineffective running backs (at least, not officially).

Here are the top 10 running backs by DYAR for 2022 (2022 Cap Charge):
J. Jacobs ($3.8M)
N. Chubb ($5.2 M)
M. Sanders ($1.7M)
A. Jones ($5.9M)
T. Allgeier ($788k)
C. Patterson ($2.5M)
A. Dillon ($1.4M)
R. Mostert ($1.9M)
J. Mixon ($11.4M)
J. Conner ($3.98M)

What you should draw from this data is:

1) You should only have running backs on rookie contracts
2) If you must sign a free agent running back, get a distressed asset

That's it. Keim decided it was easier to sign James Conner so he could proceed to finishing a bottle of Jameson. We could've signed Cordarelle Patterson for half as much on a one-year deal!

First of all, this is 2022 cap hit. Not APY.

Cordarelle Patterson is a 32 year old journeyman career nobody that hit a vein in Atlanta and quite naturally wanted to stick around to ride that.

Had we signed Patterson this year or last year you (and most of this board) would have gone nuts.

Is the rest of this supposed to prove something?

Jacobs is on his rookie deal and is a 1st round pick. Something nobody here wants to do.

Sanders, Algeier, Dillon are all on rookie deals.

Mostert misses more games than he plays and again this board would have gone nuts.

Chubb, Mixon and Jones get paid $5m more per year than Conner.

If your point is "We should draft 5th round running backs to start week 1" well sure. You tell me which 5th round running backs are going to be great this year. Because for every Algeier or Pearce there are 20 nobodies.

 

[BritCard]

You shouldn't overpay for any of the talent on your roster; that's how you get into problems.

But if you're allocating resources you're well-advised to direct them to those premium positions. At this point I'd add WR to that list, also.

What should he had been paid exactly? Nobody seems to answer this.

What exactly should we have extended him for?

 

[kerouac9]

What should he had been paid exactly? Nobody seems to answer this.

What exactly should we have extended him for?

Three years $9 million with $5 million guaranteed.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Three years $9 million with $5 million guaranteed.

That sounds like fantasy land. It's like saying Kyler was only worth 30M.

 

[kerouac9]

That sounds like fantasy land. It's like saying Kyler was only worth 30M.

Cool. Let someone else pay him more than that. I wish someone would've.

Even if it's three years $15 million with $10 million guaranteed you're better off than with the deal we got.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Cool. Let someone else pay him more than that. I wish someone would've.

Even if it's three years $15 million with $10 million guaranteed you're better off than with the deal we got.

If this past offseason has taught us anything, is that fans expectation of contract valuation is far off from the actual contracts awarded.

 

[kerouac9]

If this past offseason has taught us anything, is that fans expectation of contract valuation is far off from the actual contracts awarded.

We're better off with a UDFA or Cordarelle Patterson than having James Conner at $10 million in 2023. I don't know why it's so hard for you to just say that.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

We're better off with a UDFA or Cordarelle Patterson than having James Conner at $10 million in 2023. I don't know why it's so hard for you to just say that.

Why would I say something I don't believe? lol

I'm not going to use hindsight to try and adjust my position on the contract.

 

[kerouac9]

Why would I say something I don't believe? lol

I'm not going to use hindsight to try and adjust my position on the contract.

Cool. I'll continue to use my foresight (at the time of the extension) and current read of the economics of the NFL to provide insights for why that contract was deranged and will get even worse next season.

Do you think that James Conner is worth the $10 million cap figure he'll have in 2023?

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Cool. I'll continue to use my foresight (at the time of the extension) and current read of the economics of the NFL to provide insights for why that contract was deranged and will get even worse next season.

I'd say that your future read of the economics will be even farther from reality as the salary cap grows and players are earning more and more money.

Do you think that James Conner is worth the $10 million cap figure he'll have in 2023?

Probably not, but I'd say that he is somewhere closer to the 7M per year that his overall contract is.

Would you like it better if GMs didn't use creative accounting and pay everyone based off of overall per year average instead?

 

[SissyBoyFloyd]

I think owners should have years ago made these huge salaries mostly incentive based. Each position has a base value, then the top players earn that big money based on time played and their accomplishments.

 

[Stout]

What should he had been paid exactly? Nobody seems to answer this.

What exactly should we have extended him for?

Nothing. He shouldn't have been re-signed.

 

[BritCard]

Three years $9 million with $5 million guaranteed.

That sounds like fantasy land. It's like saying Kyler was only worth 30M.

It is pure fantasy land.

Show me any RB ever that had 1100+ scrimmage yards and 10+ TD's (even though Conner had 18) that signed for only 1.45% of cap space a year later. Let's say since 2000 to narrow the options.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Nothing. He shouldn't have been re-signed.

For a team that thought it could compete, they needed to re-sign him.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

For a team that thought it could compete, they needed to re-sign him.

There is no chance that anyone thought that Connor was the missing piece to competitiveness. There was no urgency to build on the fleeting success of last year, and that was shown throughout FA/draft.

They rewarded a good soldier unnecessarily, and the move had nothing to do with competing.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

There is no chance that anyone thought that Connor was the missing piece to competitiveness. There was no urgency to build on the fleeting success of last year, and that was shown throughout FA/draft.

They rewarded a good soldier unnecessarily, and the move had nothing to do with competing.

I am not implying that he was the 'missing piece,' just a necessary one. There was no one on the team that has his skillset, and the FA market was pretty bare too.

 

[Stout]

For a team that thought it could compete, they needed to re-sign him.

Nope. They could have gone after someone else or turned to the draft. He was not a must sign.

 

[kerouac9]

I'd say that your future read of the economics will be even farther from reality as the salary cap grows and players are earning more and more money.


Probably not, but I'd say that he is somewhere closer to the 7M per year that his overall contract is.

Would you like it better if GMs didn't use creative accounting and pay everyone based off of overall per year average instead?

It depends on the player you're using creative accounting to accommodate. I don't love having $8 million or so hanging over the Cards for the next two years, but I enjoyed 1.5 seasons of J.J. Watt.

I don't know why it's so hard for people to work out that you make special effort for special players, not for James Conner and Jordan Phillips.

It is pure fantasy land.

Show me any RB ever that had 1100+ scrimmage yards and 10+ TD's (even though Conner had 18) that signed for only 1.45% of cap space a year later. Let's say since 2000 to narrow the options.

Dude, do your own affirmative homework if you want to support your point. I'd be surprised if there were 15 names within your filter (1100+ Scrimmage yards, 10+ TDs, FA year). Even if there were 50, and all of them got $25 million, the point remains that just because other teams are making stupid spending decisions doesn't mean that we need to or should.

If someone wanted to pay James Conner a big contract, you thank them very much and collect the comp pick the next year.

 

[MadCardDisease]

I'm totally fine with keeping Conner and it makes no sense to get rid of him cap wise at this point.

Plus he is what the team will need next year. Hopefully the Cardinals will move away from Kliff's college based shotgun WR screen disaster of an offense. Starting the season without a QB next year the Cardinals will need to run the ball more. Conner is that guy.