For you Contract Wizards - Hopkins & Conner

[dreamcastrocks]

You pay them for what they're going to do, not what they've done!

In a perfect world, sure.

 

[Chopper0080]

I'm with Dreamcast here. It's not a bad deal at all whether you look at it over 2 or 3 years.

The whole "Paid as a top 10 running back" thing is misleading because so few running backs make it to big money 2nd contracts with the team that drafted them. A lot get injured or burn out depending on their age coming into the league. They get ridden hard and dumped. Which is what happened with Conner and Fournette.

There are only 8 starting running backs in the league on 2nd contracts with the teams that drafted them and they are the 8 highest paid.

Ignoring Barkley that is on his 5th year option that next highest paid RB's are Aaron Jones and Joe Mixon on $12m per year. There is a $5m gap with Conner on $7m per year with Fournette. I think it's safe to say Conner has outperformed him.

Next is Nyheim Hines on $6.2m who barely played for the Colts and now barely plays for the Bills. He has 33 yards rushing on 24 attempts despite being healthy all year.

Then you have Ekeler who is the only outlier here on a deal he signed nearly 3 years ago at $6.125 per year.

Then Chase Edmunds on $6.05m. Enough said there.

Then Kareem hunt on $6m with 455 yards this year.

I don't think anyone can look at the running back salary table as it stands and not say Conner is exactly where he should be. And frankly its nuts to judge him on this years stats with what he has had to work with on the O line.

What do you think he was going to get paid? $3-4m? You're dreaming. His absolute floor was $6m per year so the arguing he's getting $7m is a waste of time.

For someone who clowns Jalen Thompson's contract as an overpay, how can you defend Conner's? There is no world where James Conner is the 10th best RB in the NFL which is where his per year pay is.

 

[Chopper0080]

And I think everyone can look at Hunt, Fournette, Hines and Edmonds as identify that those are bad deals as well. Just because we were stupid like the Browns, Colts, Dolphins and Bucs doesn't make it a good deal.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

And I think everyone can look at Hunt, Fournette, Hines and Edmonds as identify that those are bad deals as well. Just because we were stupid like the Browns, Colts, Dolphins and Bucs doesn't make it a good deal.

Yeah, you don't get to be the best by making the same mistakes as bad teams.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

In a perfect world, sure.

To be 1 of 32, you have to be damn near perfect. Guys like Connor and Gardeck getting overpaid aren't killers on their own, but the cumulative effect is a team that doesn't have the resources to put together a championship contender.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

And I think everyone can look at Hunt, Fournette, Hines and Edmonds as identify that those are bad deals as well. Just because we were stupid like the Browns, Colts, Dolphins and Bucs doesn't make it a good deal.

He is making 7M a year. (3 years 21M) That isn't top 10. You guys are using the 'top 10' to suit a narrative. Besides, he isn't top 10, he is 14. (this year)

 

[dreamcastrocks]

To be 1 of 32, you have to be damn near perfect. Guys like Connor and Gardeck getting overpaid aren't killers on their own, but the cumulative effect is a team that doesn't have the resources to put together a championship contender.

I'll give you Gardeck being overpaid by some margin. I just don't see Connor being overpaid, except by a mil or two at the most on a salary cap of 208M.

 

[kerouac9]

I'm with Dreamcast here. It's not a bad deal at all whether you look at it over 2 or 3 years.

The whole "Paid as a top 10 running back" thing is misleading because so few running backs make it to big money 2nd contracts with the team that drafted them. A lot get injured or burn out depending on their age coming into the league. They get ridden hard and dumped. Which is what happened with Conner and Fournette.

There are only 8 starting running backs in the league on 2nd contracts with the teams that drafted them and they are the 8 highest paid.

Ignoring Barkley that is on his 5th year option that next highest paid RB's are Aaron Jones and Joe Mixon on $12m per year. There is a $5m gap with Conner on $7m per year with Fournette. I think it's safe to say Conner has outperformed him.

Next is Nyheim Hines on $6.2m who barely played for the Colts and now barely plays for the Bills. He has 33 yards rushing on 24 attempts despite being healthy all year.

Then you have Ekeler who is the only outlier here on a deal he signed nearly 3 years ago at $6.125 per year.

Then Chase Edmunds on $6.05m. Enough said there.

Then Kareem hunt on $6m with 455 yards this year.

I don't think anyone can look at the running back salary table as it stands and not say Conner is exactly where he should be. And frankly its nuts to judge him on this years stats with what he has had to work with on the O line.

What do you think he was going to get paid? $3-4m? You're dreaming. His absolute floor was $6m per year so the arguing he's getting $7m is a waste of time.

This is a lot of chaff to throw into the air to say that Conner is actually still overpaid. It sucks for running backs that it's hard to get a lucrative second contract, but the Cards aren't running a charity for ineffective running backs (at least, not officially).

Here are the top 10 running backs by DYAR for 2022 (2022 Cap Charge):
J. Jacobs ($3.8M)
N. Chubb ($5.2 M)
M. Sanders ($1.7M)
A. Jones ($5.9M)
T. Allgeier ($788k)
C. Patterson ($2.5M)
A. Dillon ($1.4M)
R. Mostert ($1.9M)
J. Mixon ($11.4M)
J. Conner ($3.98M)

What you should draw from this data is:

1) You should only have running backs on rookie contracts
2) If you must sign a free agent running back, get a distressed asset

That's it. Keim decided it was easier to sign James Conner so he could proceed to finishing a bottle of Jameson. We could've signed Cordarelle Patterson for half as much on a one-year deal!

 

[dreamcastrocks]

This is a lot of chaff to throw into the air to say that Conner is actually still overpaid. It sucks for running backs that it's hard to get a lucrative second contract, but the Cards aren't running a charity for ineffective running backs (at least, not officially).

Here are the top 10 running backs by DYAR for 2022 (2022 Cap Charge):
J. Jacobs ($3.8M)
N. Chubb ($5.2 M)
M. Sanders ($1.7M)
A. Jones ($5.9M)
T. Allgeier ($788k)
C. Patterson ($2.5M)
A. Dillon ($1.4M)
R. Mostert ($1.9M)
J. Mixon ($11.4M)
J. Conner ($3.98M)

What you should draw from this data is:

1) You should only have running backs on rookie contracts
2) If you must sign a free agent running back, get a distressed asset

That's it. Keim decided it was easier to sign James Conner so he could proceed to finishing a bottle of Jameson. We could've signed Cordarelle Patterson for half as much on a one-year deal!

You want to tell me that someone shouldn't have given Derrick Henry a second contract?

 

[kerouac9]

You want to tell me that someone shouldn't have given Derrick Henry a second contract?

Are you comparing James Conner to Derrick Henry?

Henry was signed to a four year contract extension in 2020. They got one great year out of that extension and one good year. He has a $15 million+ cap hold for 2023 that he's unlikely to see.

From a Titans fan perspective, you absolutely wanted them to keep Derrick Henry. The Titans are an entertainment company, so that makes some sense, since he was the offensive centerpiece. This is also a mild argument for over-investing at the RB position.

But from a cold-blooded, McKinsey-style football resource allocation perspective? It was probably a bad idea, and the Titans would have been smarter letting someone else pay Henry all that money if he could get it.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Are you comparing James Conner to Derrick Henry?

No. I'm saying that there are instances where you should sign an RB to a second contract, disproving your point that I bolded. You said 'that's it' like it was definitive.

 

[Cheesebeef]

In a perfect world, sure.

No. In a rational world.

 

[Cheesebeef]

You want to tell me that someone shouldn't have given Derrick Henry a second contract?

This argument gets dumber and dumber. You telling me there is ANY comparison between Henry, an MVP level Running Back and a mediocre Conner who’s never even rushed for 1000 yards ONCE in his career?

This has officially reached pathological levels of not being able to admit you’re wrong. Congrats on getting to a level I believed only one other poster on the board could reach!

 

[dreamcastrocks]

This argument gets dumber and dumber. You telling me there is ANY comparison between Henry, an MVP level Running Back and a mediocre Conner who’s never even rushed for 1000 yards ONCE in his career?

I am DIRECTLY REFUTING a statement made by K9. Nothing more, nothing less.

This has officially reached pathological levels of not being able to admit you’re wrong. Congrats on getting to a level I believed only one other poster on the board could reach!

Try reading comprehension instead of attacks.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

No. In a rational world.

You can't always underpay for talent, no matter the business you are trying to run. I bet you know that.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

You can't always underpay for talent, no matter the business you are trying to run. I bet you know that.

Of course! Common sense would seem to focus resources and overpay if you have to on premium positions (QB/pass rush/OT/CB) and fight for value with RB/MLB/S/TE.

Our GM is the genius that does the opposite.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Of course! Common sense would seem to focus resources and overpay if you have to on premium positions (QB/pass rush/OT/CB) and fight for value with RB/MLB/S/TE.

Our GM is the genius that does the opposite.

I don't disagree with any of this.

 

[kerouac9]

Of course! Common sense would seem to focus resources and overpay if you have to on premium positions (QB/pass rush/OT/CB) and fight for value with RB/MLB/S/TE.

Our GM is the genius that does the opposite.

You shouldn't overpay for any of the talent on your roster; that's how you get into problems.

But if you're allocating resources you're well-advised to direct them to those premium positions. At this point I'd add WR to that list, also.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

You shouldn't overpay for any of the talent on your roster; that's how you get into problems.

But if you're allocating resources you're well-advised to direct them to those premium positions. At this point I'd add WR to that list, also.

When you are a less desirable destination, (like the Cards) you sometimes have to overpay for talent in order to bring that talent over. Not ideal, but is sometimes necessary.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

While only paying him 1.75 last year that he grossly outperformed by any standard.

So why did you bring him up then?

You don’t pay for past performance.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

In a perfect world, sure.

No, in an intelligent world. This isn’t paying Fitz his $11m. This wasn’t a legendary lifelong cardinal. This was guy who gave a nice performance for a single year.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

You can't always underpay for talent, no matter the business you are trying to run. I bet you know that.

Of course not, but you have to be smarter about what talent you overpay for. For instance, I don’t think it’s a great idea for me to overpay for back office ministerial support verses my high end client service personnel. The latter will be much more expensive on an overpay but it’s made a little easier by not overpaying the more fungible back office staff.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

You shouldn't overpay for any of the talent on your roster; that's how you get into problems.

But if you're allocating resources you're well-advised to direct them to those premium positions. At this point I'd add WR to that list, also.

And not only premium positions, but premium talent. Conner isn’t premium talent at a sub-premier position. A double whammy.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

When you are a less desirable destination, (like the Cards) you sometimes have to overpay for talent in order to bring that talent over. Not ideal, but is sometimes necessary.

Usually not for sub-premium talent.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Usually not for sub-premium talent.

Fair.