elindholm
edited for content
I wouldn't go so far as to say it's "predetermined." But the league has quite a knack for being self-fulfilling.
Now that it's clear the Suns won't win a title in my lifetime, I can look at things a bit more objectively. And what I see is that officials call fouls, or not, according to the kind of confidence that the players on the court project. It's as though every questionable call (of which there are literally hundreds per game) is, in almost all cases, subtly decided by the players. The referees respond to the players' body language and other signals.
I do remember now which series I saw ten minutes of -- it was the Lakers and Spurs. And I don't remember the circumstances, but Bowen was guarding Bryant out on the wing, and rode his hip, and Bryant reacted, and a whistle was blown. And my first thought was, "Bowen did that to Nash on every possession and was never called for it." So the question is, why?
The answer is that Bryant carries himself differently. He reacted just as someone would in street ball: He sort of hesitated for a bit, knowing that he was fouled, getting ready to say "Got it" and reset the ball at the top of the key. (Yes, I know Bryant didn't grow up playing street ball.) The official called the foul in response to Bryant's reaction, not in response to Bowen's contact.
Nash, on the other hand, would grit his teeth and try to play through it. He didn't declare the foul, so it wasn't called. We can criticize Nash for lacking self-confidence, but who can blame him? Once Bowen was getting away with fouling him dozens of times per game, Nash had to know that it was going to continue.
So, sure, we can commend Bryant for knowing how to work the officials. Players who expect to succeed have an unmistakable air, and they get rewarded with more calls. But how did he get that way? Through being placed in successful situations over and over. Once he started to realize, "Hey, I'm going to get more than my share of the calls," it just made everything easier.
Bryant isn't alone, of course. James is in that situation now too, to an even greater degree than Bryant, but he isn't nearly as good a player. Duncan's body language isn't nearly so convincing, but he had his greatness ushered in by Robinson, giving him time to develop his own successful schtick.
As for Stoudemire, it's abundantly obvious that he will never be in that category. Officials call almost everything against him, including utterly nonexistant fouls, to the point where he now expects to be whistled for the slightest contact -- which the officials read, which makes the situation worse. There is no way he can be rehabilitated from this malady. He'll never get enough of the benefit of the doubt for him to start having the confidence to sell his defense. On offense, of course, it's a completely different story: He goes to the line constantly and knows it, and, just as with Bryant, it's usually his reaction to being fouled that gets the referees' response.
Fans of winning teams are fond of the conceit that officiating doesn't make much difference, but that's utterly false. It makes all the difference. If I were officiating a game, I could completely control the outcome, all by making calls within the range of what is sometimes called.
There are literally hundreds of situations per game which test the levelness of the officiating playing field. How much will Bowen be allowed to foul on the wing? How much will Ginobili be allowed to travel? (I could only laugh when, during the ten minutes I watched, Gasol got called for a traveling violation that wouldn't even be close to a travel for Ginobili or James.) When is hitting the offensive player's forearm allowed and when isn't it? Why are some interior defenders allowed to jump straight up to challenge a shot and others aren't? It goes on and on and on.
So the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. Players and teams who know they can get away with things simply assert their right to do it. Those who have learned that they can't get those breaks keep waiting for justice to take over. Try to think of a player who struggled with the officials during his first several years in the league but later managed to earn their respect. You can't come up with one.
As I said at the beginning, "predetermined" is too strong. But there are obvious patterns to the question of who will be permitted to succeed, and it's all controlled by what the officials decide to call.
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