The Atlanta Pick is starting to look really scary for us

[CardNots]

Another win for Atlanta at Boston. Looks like the 4th or 5th pick of the draft is in the bag.

 

[asuhoopnut]

Another win for Atlanta at Boston. Looks like the 4th or 5th pick of the draft is in the bag.

No, it does not. You still have to go through the lottery process. We will know what our pick will be on May 22nd.

 

[cardsunsfan]

Why don't people read posts on here? If you're going to post on a thread it would be nice if you read through it first. 5th is the worst position for the Suns to be in.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Why don't people read posts on here? If you're going to post on a thread it would be nice if you read through it first. 5th is the worst position for the Suns to be in.

What are you talking about? First is the worst position that the Suns could be in.

 

[cardsunsfan]

You know what I mean... If Muggum had really relooked he would have realized fifth place would give us absolutely no chance to get 4th. Someone like Pokerface does a long breakdown on the same thread that explains everything and people don't bother to read it.

I hate when people do that to me.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

You know what I mean... If Muggum had really relooked he would have realized fifth place would give us absolutely no chance to get 4th. Someone like Pokerface does a long breakdown on the same thread that explains everything and people don't bother to read it.

I hate when people do that to me.

Although the 4th pick would be ideal, I am sure that there are a ton of us (myself included) that would rather have a guaranteed 5th place, than risk losing the pick altogether in the lottery.

 

[Divide Et Impera]

Although the 4th pick would be ideal, I am sure that there are a ton of us (myself included) that would rather have a guaranteed 5th place, than risk losing the pick altogether in the lottery.

I get what you are saying, but Horford is it for the Suns that early. If we go 5-7, we get Yi, Noah or Brewer - none of which help us out nearly as much as Horford would. Really, at this point, Horford might be top 3, so it could be a moot point. If Horford is not available when we pick, wherever it is, I would trade down or package our pick with Marion for someone else - so long as another team is in love with a player that is available there....

 

[dreamcastrocks]

I get what you are saying, but Horford is it for the Suns that early. If we go 5-7, we get Yi, Noah or Brewer - none of which help us out nearly as much as Horford would. Really, at this point, Horford might be top 3, so it could be a moot point. If Horford is not available when we pick, wherever it is, I would trade down or package our pick with Marion for someone else - so long as another team is in love with a player that is available there....

I see what you are saying too, but I am not sure about who would be able to help the Suns the most (besides Oden and Durant) The Suns biggest weakness is a big man that can run, box out, rebound, and block shots. A Marcus Camby would be perfect in on the Suns, while moving Marion back to the 3, and Amare to the 4.

I haven't seen Horford compared to Camby, but the Boozer comparisons seem spot on.

I wouldn't mind Yi, or Noah either. That makes 5 players I would like to see on the Suns, so I want them to stay in the 4 or 5.

 

[Divide Et Impera]

If we're targeting Noah, who I honestly wouldn't mind on this team, we would need to trade down a couple spots from 5, but I'd be satisfied if we reached for him at 7. In the instance we are at 5 or 6, trade #5/Banks for #7/Backup PG or #8/Backup PG. Really, I'd rather gamble this year and lose and get a good, unprotected pick next year....

 

[dreamcastrocks]

If we're targeting Noah, who I honestly wouldn't mind on this team, we would need to trade down a couple spots from 5, but I'd be satisfied if we reached for him at 7. In the instance we are at 5 or 6, trade #5/Banks for #7/Backup PG or #8/Backup PG. Really, I'd rather gamble this year and lose and get a good, unprotected pick next year....

Do you remember what happened when we tried that with Chicago? Atlanta is already a borderline playoff team in the weak Eastern Conference. With one more high pick in the mix, they will make the playoffs and we would get stuck with a pick in the teens again.

 

[SO91]

I guess everybody in the East is a borderline playoff team, but unless Atl gets a monster of a player, combined that with a better coach and GM that can bring in players that can help, it's still a crap shoot with them. They could just as easily finish out of the playoffs next year

 

[Treesquid PhD]

I guess everybody in the East is a borderline playoff team, but unless Atl gets a monster of a player, combined that with a better coach and GM that can bring in players that can help, it's still a crap shoot with them. They could just as easily finish out of the playoffs next year

Atlanta is such a horrible franchise at this point I would actually be surprised if they could even make the playoffs in the medicore Eastern Conference. They remind me of the Arizona Cardinals, you know they won't be the worst in the league but they'll always be really close.

 

[SO91]

Exactly that organization is a mess. The GM is atrocious and still has his job (although that doesn't say much considering there are plenty of others like him in the league). As I understand it ownership is still not settled, with the guy that opposed the JJ trade (can't remember his name) trying to take back the franchise.

 

[Treesquid PhD]

You know what I mean... If Muggum had really relooked he would have realized fifth place would give us absolutely no chance to get 4th. Someone like Pokerface does a long breakdown on the same thread that explains everything and people don't bother to read it.

I hate when people do that to me.

You are completely ignoring the fact that getting the 5th worst pick in the draft gives the Suns an + 8.2% chance of having a pick in this draft vs. no pick. Albeit not #4, however, having a pick in the draft in the top 7 could be more attactive than not having one at all. I can see that argument.

The numbers pokerface (while very cool and informative) put up do not provide any open shut case for pulling for the number 4 record over the number 5, there is still too much subjectivity and moving scenarios in that argument.

 

[F-Dog]

As long as the Hawks don't win out, I'm happy with their results. 4th-worst and 5th-worst are both very good spots for them to be, from the Suns' perspective at least.



If the Suns keep putting themselves in a position to get lucky, it will happen eventually. The good news is that Atlanta's pick wasn't nearly as expensive as Chicago's.

 

[Covert Rain]

As long as the Hawks don't win out, I'm happy with their results. 4th-worst and 5th-worst are both very good spots for them to be, from the Suns' perspective at least.



If the Suns keep putting themselves in a position to get lucky, it will happen eventually. The good news is that Atlanta's pick wasn't nearly as expensive as Chicago's.

Any spot from 4-10 is good considering the Suns are willing to trade down if need be to get the guy they want. Though if they landed 4, they might not have to trade anything to get the guy they want.

 

[pokerface]

Although the 4th pick would be ideal, I am sure that there are a ton of us (myself included) that would rather have a guaranteed 5th place, than risk losing the pick altogether in the lottery.

But a "guaranteed 5th pick" is not so guaranteed when the odds are 29% that it end up a top three pick. Thats almost a one third chance it will move up to a pick we dont collect on. Those odds are very substantial at 29%....hardly can we act like its a "shoe in" to collect if Atlanta falls to the fifth worse record.

 

[pokerface]

The numbers pokerface (while very cool and informative) put up do not provide any open shut case for pulling for the number 4 record over the number 5, there is still too much subjectivity and moving scenarios in that argument.

I guess what it comes down to is everyone has a different risk/reward threshold level. I'm just not so sure people are fully aware of the risks involved.


4th worst record has a 37.8% chance of ending up top 3.

5th worst record has a 29.1% chance of ending up top 3.


So it comes down to this... is that 9% additional risk with the 4th record over the 5th record worth the reward of being able to have a chance at the 4th pick plus having a little bit better pick selection? In my mind the risk is worth taking because a 9% additional risk doesnt seem all that high a price to pay for what you're possibly getting.

 

[Treesquid PhD]

I guess what it comes down to is everyone has a different risk/reward threshold level. I'm just not so sure people are fully aware of the risks involved.


4th worst record has a 37.8% chance of ending up top 3.

5th worst record has a 29.1% chance of ending up top 3.


So it comes down to this... is that 9% additional risk with the 4th record over the 5th record worth the reward of being able to have a chance at the 4th pick plus having a little bit better pick selection? In my mind the risk is worth taking because a 9% additional risk doesnt seem all that high a price to pay for what you're possibly getting.

Exactly right, but it's kind of pointless IMO, because 12 months ago everyone here would have drooled over Noah, now we could get him anywhere in the top 7. Same goes for Hortford or any other flavor of the moment annoited outside of Oden and Durant. So if you take the position that the Suns will get a good NBA player at 5-7 then just getting into the draft is better than not, albeit 29 v 38 isn't a huge margin nor is it a sure bet.

 

[JCSunsfan]

I guess what it comes down to is everyone has a different risk/reward threshold level. I'm just not so sure people are fully aware of the risks involved.


4th worst record has a 37.8% chance of ending up top 3.

5th worst record has a 29.1% chance of ending up top 3.


So it comes down to this... is that 9% additional risk with the 4th record over the 5th record worth the reward of being able to have a chance at the 4th pick plus having a little bit better pick selection? In my mind the risk is worth taking because a 9% additional risk doesnt seem all that high a price to pay for what you're possibly getting.

Its not like we or anyone else has any control over it anyway.

 

[azirish]

I'm not at all convinced these statistics are correct but since I haven't read the rules I'm not sure how to actually work out the math.

As far as I can tell, the total amount of balls is not altered after someone wins. If the top seed gets 15 balls and wins the first pick, I don't think they remove that team's balls from the hopper. If that is the way it works (and honestly I don't know), then the odds on the second round are altered strictly by the removed ball. Also, I don't think they redraw if #1 gets a second ball.

Considering all, the odds of #4 getting into the top three looks closer to 10% than 30%. Too high for comfort, but hardly something to panic about.

 

[BirdMan21]

I'm not at all convinced these statistics are correct but since I haven't read the rules I'm not sure how to actually work out the math.

As far as I can tell, the total amount of balls is not altered after someone wins. If the top seed gets 15 balls and wins the first pick, I don't think they remove that team's balls from the hopper. If that is the way it works (and honestly I don't know), then the odds on the second round are altered strictly by the removed ball. Also, I don't think they redraw if #1 gets a second ball.

Considering all, the odds of #4 getting into the top three looks closer to 10% than 30%. Too high for comfort, but hardly something to panic about.

I am pretty sure that they have balls numbered 1-14 and they pull out 4 balls at random. They then take that number and it equates to a top 3 draft order. So they just give the worst team the highest percentage of these number combinations. And each team down recieves a lower and lower percentage of the number combinations. So a team that ends up with the 13th worst record will only get the first pick if the numbers are pulled in a particular order (ex: 9-4-2-1)

 

[Treesquid PhD]

I am pretty sure that they have balls numbered 1-14 and they pull out 4 balls at random. They then take that number and it equates to a top 3 draft order. So they just give the worst team the highest percentage of these number combinations. And each team down recieves a lower and lower percentage of the number combinations. So a team that ends up with the 13th worst record will only get the first pick if the numbers are pulled in a particular order (ex: 9-4-2-1)

I thought if you were the worst you could do no worse than #4. That's why the fifth worst has zero chance at the 4 slot.

 

[SO91]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery

Process
The lottery is normally held during the fourth week of May. The 2007 draft lottery will be held Tuesday, May 22nd.
Fourteen ping pong balls numbered 1-14 are placed in a standard lottery machine and four balls are drawn at random to determine the winner. Just as in most traditional lotteries, the order of the numbers are not important, so although there are 24 different permutations of the same four numbers being drawn, all are treated as the same combination. That is, 1-2-3-4 is considered to be the same as 3-4-2-1. By eliminating the importance of the order of the numbers, the 24,024 (14! / 10!, or 14x13x12x11) possible combinations are reduced to 1,001. Of these, 1,000 are divided among all the non-playoff NBA teams. One sequence (11-12-13-14) is not assigned, and is ignored if drawn; this has never occurred in practice.
In the event a lottery pick is traded to another team, the record of the original team (whose pick it was before the trade) matters in determining eligibility for the lottery, and assignment of chances.
As of 2005, with 30 NBA teams, 16 qualify for the playoffs and the remaining 14 teams are entered in the draft lottery. These 14 teams are ranked in reverse order of their regular season record and are assigned the following number of chances:

1. 250 combinations, 25% chance of receiving the #1 pick
2. 199 combinations, 19.9% chance
3. 156 combinations, 15.6% chance
4. 119 combinations, 11.9% chance
5. 88 combinations, 8.8% chance
6. 63 combinations, 6.3% chance
7. 43 combinations, 4.3% chance
8. 28 combinations, 2.8% chance
9. 17 combinations, 1.7% chance
10. 11 combinations, 1.1% chance
11. 8 combinations, 0.8% chance
12. 7 combinations, 0.7% chance
13. 6 combinations, 0.6% chance
14. 5 combinations, 0.5% chance

In the event of a tie, each tied team receives the average of the total number of combinations for the positions involved. In 2006, the Minnesota Timberwolves and Boston Celtics tied for sixth, resulting in each team getting 53 combinations (the average of 63 and 43). Should the average number not be an integer, a coin flip is then used to determine which team receives the extra combination(s).
The lottery is conducted with witnesses verifying that all 14 balls are represented once as they are placed in the lottery machine. The balls are placed in the machine for 20 seconds to randomize prior to having the first ball drawn. The remaining three balls are drawn at 10 second intervals. NBA League Officials determine which team holds the winning combination and that franchise is awarded the #1 overall draft pick. The four balls are returned to the machine and the process is repeated to determine the second and third picks. In the event that a combination belongs to a team that has already won its pick (or if the 1 unassigned combination comes up), the round is repeated until a unique winner is determined. When the first three teams have been determined, the remaining picks are given out based on regular season record with the worst teams getting the highest picks. This assures each team that it can drop no more than 3 spots from its projected draft position.
In the case where a lottery team trades its pick to a playoff team, the playoff team assumes the lottery team's position in all draft lottery situations, unless provisioned by the conditions of the trade.
For the 2006 NBA Draft, the NBA determined tie breakers on April 21st.

 

[Treesquid PhD]

Thanks Reccless, I'm gonna come back and re-read this tomorrow when i'm not stoned.