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  1. capologist

    Kobe to extend with Lakers, Shaq tradable, LA wants Jackson

    He didn’t say, “I am getting a new car.” It was more analogous to “I think I am getting a new car.” Even that’s not really a good analogy, because buying the car is entirely your own decision. A better analogy would be, “I think I am getting the job I interviewed for yesterday. Part of that...
  2. capologist

    Kobe to extend with Lakers, Shaq tradable, LA wants Jackson

    It states no such thing. It quotes Kupchak as saying, “I think we’re going to keep Kobe.” That’s an expression of confidence, not of certainty. It’s no more meaningful than the “promises” from Rick Fox and Kobe Bryant that the Lakers would win Game 5. Well, Kupchak at least has a better...
  3. capologist

    Kobe to extend with Lakers, Shaq tradable, LA wants Jackson

    Whatever the generic rules may be regarding the cap implications of this type of situation, those rules don’t constitute the entirety of the situation, because in this case, the contract will contain explicit provisions. In fact, if I were managing a team negotiating with Bryant, I would...
  4. capologist

    falling off the Bryant bandwagon

    Sometimes, even a great scorer will encounter a bad matchup. IIRC, Elden Campbell effectively shut down Charles Barkley in ’93, very nearly bringing about what would have been the first-ever defeat of a #1 seed by a #8 seed. This isn’t the first time Kobe has encountered this, either...
  5. capologist

    So who DON'T you want us to draft.

    Nothing. Last year, the draft party at Fox Sports Grill was also open only to season ticket holders. Officially, anyway. I don’t think they turned anybody away at the doors. My guess is, if you show up, and you’re not incredibly obnoxious, obviously drunk, smelly enough to nauseate...
  6. capologist

    So who DON'T you want us to draft.

    MA. I would be afraid that I couldn’t spell his name.
  7. capologist

    Rumor: Steve Kerr is Suns next GM!

    BTW, that historical trend isn’t going to change this year. Larry Brown has been around a lot— this is his seventh coaching position in the NBA— but, if I’m not mistaken, he has never been fired. He walked away from every one of them. Obviously, Brown is very unusual. Experienced NBA...
  8. capologist

    Rumor: Steve Kerr is Suns next GM!

    Historically, it’s very unusual to win a championship with a coach who has ever been fired. The last NBA head coach to win a championship after having been fired as an NBA head coach at some point during his career was Chuck Daly, who won championships with Detroit in ’89 and ’90, after...
  9. capologist

    The Value of European Players

    The problem with Milicic and Lampe may simply be that they were the two youngest players in the league. When you draft a Euroteen, you have to be prepared to wait. Nowitzki didn’t have a very impressive rookie season, either. FWIW, other players drafted out of foreign leagues: 1989 26...
  10. capologist

    Question about Andriuskevicius, or anyone like him.

    You know what? nbadraft.net is a good site. Most of us have been going there for years, and gotten a lot of good information from them and found it interesting and useful. Their membership price ($39.95/yr) is reasonable. If you’ve been finding value in the site, why not pay them back for...
  11. capologist

    Rumor: Steve Kerr is Suns next GM!

    My understanding of the terms of the deal is that BC is pretty much locked in as GM for the next three years. In the meantime, of course, he and Kerr will be working with each other, and learning from each other. Kerr probably has more to learn from BC than vice versa, due to BC’s years of...
  12. capologist

    A Worst Case Scenerio If Free Agency

    Slight correction: The percentages are actually 150% and 200%, not 250% and 300%. So Dice wouldn’t put us over the top if we traded away every contract. However, it’s still enough to keep us over the cap in our actual situation. And Dylan, if you renounce a player’s Bird rights, you can...
  13. capologist

    A Worst Case Scenerio If Free Agency

    Weird... and totally unnecessary. When a free agent with Bird status is “in limbo”— i.e., you haven’t renounced his Bird rights and he hasn’t re-signed with you or signed with another team— he counts against your cap at 250% of his previous salary (if it’s above the league average) or 300%...
  14. capologist

    The best Scorer?

    It’s a combination of efficiency and total output. Basically, I took the total number of points scored by each player, and subtracted a certain multiple of his FGA and a certain multiple of his FTA. Actually, I think the coefficients I used were probably too high, and hence put too much...
  15. capologist

    The best Scorer?

    According to cap’s end-all-be-all statistical analysis of scoring stats, the ten best scorers in the league this season were: 1. Peja Stojakovic 2. James Posey 3. Corey Maggette 4. Yao Ming 5. Brent Barry 6. Sam Cassell 7. Richard Jefferson 8. Steve Nash 9. Antawn Jamison 10. Dirk...
  16. capologist

    And the Suns draft...

    You want to draft Matt Lottich?
  17. capologist

    Dissed again!

    That’s an impressive accomplishment. 69 players and 20 coaches received votes, and not a single one of them from the Suns. Wow.
  18. capologist

    Should The Suns Tank the Utah Game?

    Very nearly so. In 1987, Seattle traded the #5 pick to Chicago for the #8 pick and trivial considerations (a second-round pick in 1988 or 1989, and the option to exchange first-round picks in 1989). Doesn’t mean they should have done it, but they did. Trivia: who were the #5 and the #8...
  19. capologist

    Should The Suns Tank the Utah Game?

    Well, it’s a very small effect, but it exists. It has to do with the number of balls remaining in the bin after the first pick. Suppose there are no ties. Toronto gets 44 balls, and Philly gets 29 balls. And suppose the Suns have, say, 91 balls (the three-way tie case). There is a...
  20. capologist

    Should The Suns Tank the Utah Game?

    Well, here’s how the top-three probabilities work out: Clippers and Hawks Suns #1 top-2 top-3 ------------------ ---- ----- ----- ----- both lose lose 9.1% 19.0% 30.0% win 6.4% 13.6% 21.9% split lose 10.4% 21.7% 33.9%...
  21. capologist

    Prediction game--which player will the Suns draft?

    Well, suppose the rumors are true and that Kobe Bryant is going to be wearing a Suns jersey (and not a Colorado State Penitentiary jumpsuit) next season. That means the 2-3-4 positions are pretty much locked up with Kobe, Shawn, and Amare. So we need to look at 1s and 5s. Let’s look at the...
  22. capologist

    Gambo & Ash Ranting About Kobe & Tracy Again

    F them. The friggin’ Lakers have had Mikan, Chamberlain, Abdul-Jabbar, and O’Neal. We’ve had Rick Robey, William Bedford, Hot Rod Williams, and L*c L*****y. We must have done something truly heinous in a previous life to merit such a curse.
  23. capologist

    Gambo & Ash Ranting About Kobe & Tracy Again

    I dunno. We’ve got a fair amount of trading material even without including the pick or Amare. We have Shawn, JJ, Zarko, Leandro, the Cleveland pick... And if it’s what McGrady wants, and the Magic aren’t going anywhere anyway, it seems realistic. Maybe it doesn’t seem especially likely...
  24. capologist

    Gambo & Ash Ranting About Kobe & Tracy Again

    :idea: Hey, if we draft Dwight Howard, sign Kobe Bryant, and trade for Tracy McGrady, we could play a lineup of Bryant, McGrady, Howard, Amare Stoudemire, and Maciej Lampe — four high-school-to-NBA players, and a foreigner who entered the NBA at the age of 18. I bet that would be a first.
  25. capologist

    Amare Interview

    Or there’s the Python version: “Stop! Who would exit from this court must answer me these questions three, ere the locker room he see!” “Ask me the questions. I am not afraid.” “How... did you win this game?” “We stepped up our intensity.” “How important... was this win?” “Very...

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